ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The vorticity is concentrated south of 10N but of course that will change as time goes by. Convection mainly is north of that latitud.

[Blown Away]

12z was 10.2N/26.1W, I guess I can see a very weak broad area circulating around there...

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border.

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Convection seems to be moving further south to line up with the vorticity blob at 10N.

[tolakram]

I think they'll need to drop chances, otherwise it's going to be stuck at 80/90 for a few days. I'd say 60/90 is more realistic at the moment.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe I see some tight rotation in the invest. Also several hot towers are now firing.
https://imgur.com/a/gPEastx

Also I can post pictures now!

[Spacecoast]

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)

[Blinhart]

Ok, which long tracking hurricane from the past are the experts comparing this one to???

I haven't been paying much attention to this one, I was busy watching Nicholas and hoping he wouldn't do as much as he was expected, and he hasn't to me, unfortunately for those to the East of me it has done more than expected.

I know this system is at least 4 -7 days (depending on forward speed) of being near any land if it gets anywhere near land, so a lot can change, just want to know what the experts are expecting.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am feeling for the first part, up to 300 miles away from the LA, that it might be like Irma that develops later than Irma. However, once it reaches that TUTT, unlike Irma I believe it will weaken about where Irma RI'd into CAT 5 to a mid level tc or dissipate entirely. Its too far out for me to try to accurately predict what happens once the system reaches the LA. I am not an expert but that is my take.

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

This area of spin will be a key player in how 95L develops and tracks

[IcyTundra]

I am feeling for the first part, up to 300 miles away from the LA, that it might be like Irma that develops later than Irma. However, once it reaches that TUTT, unlike Irma I believe it will weaken about where Irma RI'd into CAT 5 to a mid level tc or dissipate entirely. Its too far out for me to try to accurately predict what happens once the system reaches the LA. I am not an expert but that is my take.

Model trends suggest that the TUTT may not be as big of an issue as originally thought. The TUTT is unlikely to completely dissipate 95L and most models agree that the TUTT will not completely kill off 95L.

[Nimbus]

I think they'll need to drop chances, otherwise it's going to be stuck at 80/90 for a few days. I'd say 60/90 is more realistic at the moment.

Looking at the models there is literally no information, something weak maybe a depression moving west then the phone goes dead. Statistically the models appear to be calling for about 50/90 but the convection is there with a wave apex that would be a circulation if it slowed down just a bit and of course NHC has climo expectations.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm not a big of a fan of the theory that 96L will develop and then while passing Newfoundland loop back south to Bermuda. I'm not buying that it develops at all. That would have implications for future 95L

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think they'll need to drop chances, otherwise it's going to be stuck at 80/90 for a few days. I'd say 60/90 is more realistic at the moment.

Looking at the models there is literally no information, something weak maybe a depression moving west then the phone goes dead. Statistically the models appear to be calling for about 50/90 but the convection is there with a wave apex that would be a circulation if it slowed down just a bit and of course NHC has climo expectations.

It has a pretty large envelope, and those generally take longer to organize.

[AlphaToOmega]

The NHC, ensembles, and operational models still show development. Large areas of vorticity take longer to develop than smaller areas for obvious reasons. Be patient

[Ubuntwo]

The NHC, ensembles, and operational models still show development. Large areas of vorticity take longer to develop than smaller areas for obvious reasons. Be patient

The vorticity signature on this thing is relatively small, which is why most models have a smaller system out of this in the MDR. Though of course the wave envelope is bigger.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/yZCqjx-mN8w