ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7060/ORtsH2.gif

Is that an eye with rotating hot towers?

[zhukm29]

A bit of humor from Josh - poor 95L might get two names stolen from it in Beta fashion. I guess it really wants to get a never-before-used brand new name...

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1439313854064902148

[jconsor]

95L appears to meet criteria for a TD and NHC will likely upgrade it shortly.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1439320241616605185




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1439321623736332290




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1439334146950770689

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT Direct Hit, there is NO way it's not TD 16!

[aspen]

Either that's an incredibly vigorous MLC, or 95L is a TD/TS.

[ouragans]

ASCAT Direct Hit, there is NO way it's not TD 16!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ascat_95L_barb_202109181426.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ascat_95L_speed_202109181426.png

In the next TWO, we should have the wording "if this trend continues" with upgrade at 3z. Maybe straight to TS

[Nimbus]

Looks like it will leave all the islands on its weak side, and it probably will be a tropical storm by the time it gets investigated. Models should begin to get a handle on the upper air pattern as the track approaches the CONUS. Maybe as Odette rolls over the top of the high 95L will find a weakness near the western periphery.

[crownweather]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 600 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward
Islands continue to show signs of organization. In addition,
satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If the current
trend continues, advisories would likely be initiated on a tropical
depression or tropical storm later tonight or early Sunday. This
system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday
and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for
development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the
early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[ouragans]

If the current trend continues, advisories would likely be initiated on a tropical
depression or tropical storm later tonight or early Sunday.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT21 KNES 182351
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 16.7N

D. 52.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC WHICH RESULTS IN
A DT EQUAL TO 2.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Nancy Smar]

AL162021 - Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
2021-09-19 00:00 16.1 -52.5 30

[Sciencerocks]

[WiscoWx02]

Looks like we FINALLY have a tropical cyclone from this after days and days of tracking and speculating.

[ouragans]

RAMMB has just been updated

AL162021 - Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al162021

[zzh]

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TD Sixteen

INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

[Iceresistance]

Were only 11 Days behind pace on 2020's 16th System (September 7th) . . . Think about that one . . .

[Yellow Evan]

Why is the NHC going lower than Dvorak?

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT21 KNES 190600
TCSNTL

A. 16L (NONAME)

B. 19/0530Z

C. 17.6N

D. 52.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC WHICH RESULTS IN A
DT EQUAL TO 2.5. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 3.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Landy]

Updated September 19, 2021 at 06:00 UTC

Tropical Storm PETER
Located at 17.6°N, 52.9°W
Minimum Pressure: 1005mb
Maximum Wind: 35kt

Now Peter per cyclonicwx.