ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Time of the essence and I think DMAX will be crucial tonight to at least get a TD closed up. I like how HWRF lets us do a little now-casting; for example it has some decent convection firing by 8pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021091712/hwrf_satIR_95L_3.png

HWRF has the shear vector shifting to S by 5pm. Convection should light up as that happens

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF has this a lot further N.

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF has this a lot further N.

Probably wouldn't trust HWRF to resolve the steering environment for this setup

[ouragans]

Invest 95L
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 17, 2021:

Location: 13.4°N 45.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

I still think this one develops at some point. Whether we see weak development before the TUTT or it waits until after remains to be seen. But I think there's a solid chance we see Odette out of this. Still not convinced on 96L developing and I think there's a good chance this is the only one out of the three AOI's that develops.

Welp looks like 96L is about to become Odette so now it looks like this will be Peter at some point.

[aspen]

The current model consensus is that there’ll be some break in the ridge — either Odette or a trough or both — that’ll come in and yeet Peter OTS. The question is: how far west will it get before that happens? It could be close to the Bahamas like the CMC, or just north of PR. When it turns will determine how strong Peter gets, because the further west it goes, the more time it’ll have over 29C and higher SSTs.

[grapealcoholic]

The current model consensus is that there’ll be some break in the ridge — either Odette or a trough or both — that’ll come in and yeet Peter OTS. The question is: how far west will it get before that happens? It could be close to the Bahamas like the CMC, or just north of PR. When it turns will determine how strong Peter gets, because the further west it goes, the more time it’ll have over 29C and higher SSTs.

Assuming the 12z GFS is correct and Odette gets carried away by a trough, it seems like it's a 50/50 on whether enough ridging fills in to carry Peter to CONUS

[Nimbus]

The current model consensus is that there’ll be some break in the ridge — either Odette or a trough or both — that’ll come in and yeet Peter OTS. The question is: how far west will it get before that happens? It could be close to the Bahamas like the CMC, or just north of PR. When it turns will determine how strong Peter gets, because the further west it goes, the more time it’ll have over 29C and higher SSTs.

Assuming the 12z GFS is correct and Odette gets carried away by a trough, it seems like it's a 50/50 on whether enough ridging fills in to carry Peter to CONUS

I think the ridge may have time to build back in after Odette leaves but a short wave might save the Carolina's later.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's today's labelled SST map with the possible futures of Odette.

I did my best to mark where 95L/Odette should be in the next 168hr (by midday Sunday) and where the TUTT and its associated shear should be. It does extend further into the NE Atlantic, but that isn't relevant right now. The green track is close to the 12z GFS and represents the most SW solution: rapid weakening from the TUTT that leaves 95L, as a TD or an open wave, going more W/WNW. The blue track is the easternmost possible track and is close to the ICON's solution of an attempted early recurve. The purple track is close to what the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEFS show, and diverges because there's still a lot of spread from the ensembles that do keep it alive.
https://i.imgur.com/NJq2O0x.png

If Odette is more on the NE side of possible tracks, it's done for. It'll be tracking over Larry's massive cold wake and therefore won't have much fuel to get strong enough to survive the TUTT. Even without the period of high shear, it'll still be screwed because of the cold wake.

A track that sticks further south in the next 4-5 days (between 11-13N by the time it's around 48-52W) will put Odette close to or over that tongue of 29-30C SSTs, giving it a last-minute boost before the TUTT. This could also result in a track close to that of the 12z GFS, but a stronger storm would gain a little more latitude and hopefully won't be that close to the islands.

If Odette survives the TUTT in some way (either by it being stronger or the TUTT being weaker), the region within 30N/60W is full of rocket fuel that could cause some serious RI. With the TUTT in play now, it seems that Odette's best opportunity to become anything is this weekend around 45-55W and 11-13.5N - before the wall of shear knocks it down multiple pegs.

You sure you got the storm's name right ?

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like some hot towers are starting to pop near the center.

[aspen]

Here's today's labelled SST map with the possible futures of Odette.

I did my best to mark where 95L/Odette should be in the next 168hr (by midday Sunday) and where the TUTT and its associated shear should be. It does extend further into the NE Atlantic, but that isn't relevant right now. The green track is close to the 12z GFS and represents the most SW solution: rapid weakening from the TUTT that leaves 95L, as a TD or an open wave, going more W/WNW. The blue track is the easternmost possible track and is close to the ICON's solution of an attempted early recurve. The purple track is close to what the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEFS show, and diverges because there's still a lot of spread from the ensembles that do keep it alive.
https://i.imgur.com/NJq2O0x.png

If Odette is more on the NE side of possible tracks, it's done for. It'll be tracking over Larry's massive cold wake and therefore won't have much fuel to get strong enough to survive the TUTT. Even without the period of high shear, it'll still be screwed because of the cold wake.

A track that sticks further south in the next 4-5 days (between 11-13N by the time it's around 48-52W) will put Odette close to or over that tongue of 29-30C SSTs, giving it a last-minute boost before the TUTT. This could also result in a track close to that of the 12z GFS, but a stronger storm would gain a little more latitude and hopefully won't be that close to the islands.

If Odette survives the TUTT in some way (either by it being stronger or the TUTT being weaker), the region within 30N/60W is full of rocket fuel that could cause some serious RI. With the TUTT in play now, it seems that Odette's best opportunity to become anything is this weekend around 45-55W and 11-13.5N - before the wall of shear knocks it down multiple pegs.

You sure you got the storm's name right ?

At least I was correct about this weekend being the best chance for development…but yeah, lesson learned: don’t assume anything in the tropics.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's today's labelled SST map with the possible futures of Odette.

I did my best to mark where 95L/Odette should be in the next 168hr (by midday Sunday) and where the TUTT and its associated shear should be. It does extend further into the NE Atlantic, but that isn't relevant right now. The green track is close to the 12z GFS and represents the most SW solution: rapid weakening from the TUTT that leaves 95L, as a TD or an open wave, going more W/WNW. The blue track is the easternmost possible track and is close to the ICON's solution of an attempted early recurve. The purple track is close to what the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEFS show, and diverges because there's still a lot of spread from the ensembles that do keep it alive.
https://i.imgur.com/NJq2O0x.png

If Odette is more on the NE side of possible tracks, it's done for. It'll be tracking over Larry's massive cold wake and therefore won't have much fuel to get strong enough to survive the TUTT. Even without the period of high shear, it'll still be screwed because of the cold wake.

A track that sticks further south in the next 4-5 days (between 11-13N by the time it's around 48-52W) will put Odette close to or over that tongue of 29-30C SSTs, giving it a last-minute boost before the TUTT. This could also result in a track close to that of the 12z GFS, but a stronger storm would gain a little more latitude and hopefully won't be that close to the islands.

If Odette survives the TUTT in some way (either by it being stronger or the TUTT being weaker), the region within 30N/60W is full of rocket fuel that could cause some serious RI. With the TUTT in play now, it seems that Odette's best opportunity to become anything is this weekend around 45-55W and 11-13.5N - before the wall of shear knocks it down multiple pegs.

You sure you got the storm's name right ?

At least I was correct about this weekend being the best chance for development…but yeah, lesson learned: don’t assume anything in the tropics.

Yeah the tropics can be sneaky sometimes and do things contrary to what we think at first. But yeah, just playing with you

In terms of 95L, we'll see what Odette does and whether it is able to be strong enough to pull 95L poleward or if 95L can continue going west and miss that first opportunity for escape at least

[aspen]

Plenty of little hot towers are popping up as the sun sets over 95L. Today has been by far its best day for organization and convection, and it could be on its way to becoming TD16 or TS Peter by late tomorrow.

95L’s best shot to intensify before hitting the TUTT will be throughout the day Sunday (thankfully with recon coverage) and early on Monday. Like in the 12z HWRF, it could become a 65-70 kt hurricane for a bit before the UL environment becomes hostile.

[grapealcoholic]

Time of the essence and I think DMAX will be crucial tonight to at least get a TD closed up. I like how HWRF lets us do a little now-casting; for example it has some decent convection firing by 8pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021091712/hwrf_satIR_95L_3.png

HWRF has the shear vector shifting to S by 5pm. Convection should light up as that happens

Right on cue

[Ubuntwo]

Time of the essence and I think DMAX will be crucial tonight to at least get a TD closed up. I like how HWRF lets us do a little now-casting; for example it has some decent convection firing by 8pm

95L is firing off banded convection and has a well defined storm-relative circulation. HWRF and the GFS establish proper westerlies tomorrow morning.

Also worth noting that models have a small and diurnally sensitive storm. Prone to rapid intensity changes in either direction.

[aspen]

At this rate, 95L will probably be a TD by 5am. Lots of convection firing, and the broad wave circulation has tightened up around 13-14N.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021091800, , BEST, 0, 141N, 473W, 25, 1011, DB

[GCANE]

925 mb vort has consolidated and strengthened 13N 47W.
IR satellites has it closed off.
ASCAT still a wave.
Convection creating a nice protect pouch.
Good, low shear area.

[Sciencerocks]