ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#261 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:05 am

GCANE wrote:GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.

Assuming it enters the Bahamas. Most models don’t show it getting that far west anymore, but it really depends on how much of a weakness Odette creates.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#262 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:37 am

GCANE wrote:GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.


What is ARWB?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#263 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:40 am

AL, 95, 2021091812, , BEST, 0, 147N, 510W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,


Upgraded from disturbance to low
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#264 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:50 am

cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.


What is ARWB?


Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break.
It is seen on the 250mb wind map.
It is the UL High on the SE side of the tail of a Rossby Wave.
Rossby Wave is a technical term used for what is commonly referred to as the Jet Stream.
As you know, the UL HIgh creates an environment for a TC to develop.

This is the graphic of the RW and ARWB forecast for the Bahamas at the time 95L is forecast to enter.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#265 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 18, 2021 7:58 am

GCANE wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.


What is ARWB?

and how exactly is track factored?
Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break.
It is seen on the 250mb wind map.
It is the UL High on the SE side of the tail of a Rossby Wave.
Rossby Wave is a technical term used for what is commonly referred to as the Jet Stream.
As you know, the UL HIgh creates an environment for a TC to develop.

This is the graphic of the RW and ARWB forecast for the Bahamas at the time 95L is forecast to enter.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/d1KfzNkF/95l.png [/url]

and how exactly is track factored?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#266 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:17 am

cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.


What is ARWB?


In other words, that deep, slightly negative tilted long wave trough will be pumping up the ridge ahead of it? If so, I agree it could have consequences with regard to intensity and perhaps lead to weak steering conditions. That trough, unless it retrogrades, seems to dictate the storm will eventually move north off the coast though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#267 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:01 am

ronjon wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:GFS is now showing a ARWB developing in the Bahamas at the same time 95L enters the Bahamas.
Could have a dramatic impact on upcoming forecasted track and intensity.
Stay tuned.


What is ARWB?


In other words, that deep, slightly negative tilted long wave trough will be pumping up the ridge ahead of it? If so, I agree it could have consequences with regard to intensity and perhaps lead to weak steering conditions. That trough, unless it retrogrades, seems to dictate the storm will eventually move north off the coast though.


My vote is that the trough is already starting to cutoff and retrograde west or SW ahead of 95L.
Currently shear from the south check
Latitude up to 14.7N check
Track cone north of the islands close.
Rossby wave analysis is consistent with what I was talking about yesterday but it may not verify.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#268 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:36 am

Image

No southerlies west of like 50W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#269 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:00 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
GCANE wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
What is ARWB?

and how exactly is track factored?
Anti-cyclonic Rossby Wave Break.
It is seen on the 250mb wind map.
It is the UL High on the SE side of the tail of a Rossby Wave.
Rossby Wave is a technical term used for what is commonly referred to as the Jet Stream.
As you know, the UL HIgh creates an environment for a TC to develop.

This is the graphic of the RW and ARWB forecast for the Bahamas at the time 95L is forecast to enter.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/d1KfzNkF/95l.png [/url]

and how exactly is track factored?


ARWB moves east and 95L moves west.
Hard to tell where track goes at the end of the GFS forecast period.
Seems to be a 500mb ridge above it at that time.
Could move straight west then.
Need another day or two to see how GFS evolves.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#270 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 am

New hot tower right on 15 degrees latitude earlier ASCAT showed the low levels are more consistent with a sharp wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#271 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#272 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:01 am

Image


This is a hell of a lot more deserving of being upgraded to a tropical cyclone then odette.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#273 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:06 am

At this rate, 95L is gonna be Rose or maybe even Sam. 97L will probably snag Peter since it already has a closed circulation, and maybe this takes so long to develop that another MDR system pops up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#274 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:35 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#275 Postby TallyTracker » Sat Sep 18, 2021 12:42 pm

This one is close! Just needs that mid-level circulation to firmly establish on the surface and it will be a tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#276 Postby floridasun » Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:39 pm

it look like it td or even ts we likely wait untill rec go into look at it on sunday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#277 Postby ouragans » Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:57 pm

Invest 95L
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 18, 2021:

Location: 15.5°N 52.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#278 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:17 pm

Odette and 95L...somehow only the top one is a TS

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#279 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:19 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#280 Postby tomatkins » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:25 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Odette and 95L...somehow only the top one is a TS

https://i.imgur.com/sxbxk4R.png

Does 95L have TS force winds?
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