ATL: PETER - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#101 Postby Woofde » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:57 am

The recurve on the GFS is happening over 240 hours out. Compared to the past two runs its not even a similar setup. No point in speculating on recurve potential right now.

At hour 144 GFS ensembles are generally a tad stronger and further SW than the 06z and 00z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#102 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:58 am



Buried into the GA's at 6z and back to Larryish once again. Back and forth like a yo yo. I was correct that there would be a near 100% chance of a vastly different outcome and here it is lol. Near 100% it's vastly different again at 18z :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#103 Postby blp » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:05 pm

12z models now showing more favorable environment toward the end of the runs. This is such a fluid forecast not only with the intensity but the track. Very early to call this an OTS. This one has my attention.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#104 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:14 pm

Incoming trof to save the day. Being almost Oct it will be hard for any ridge to hold. Many days out so I guess worth keeping an eye on.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#105 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:24 pm


So we're just going to ignore that tiny dot?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#106 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:40 pm

12Z UKMET: still a bear

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 18.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2021 0 14.0N 18.2W 1012 20
0000UTC 15.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#107 Postby StPeteMike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:03 pm

GFS didn’t have development of this a few days ago. Any runs from it showing it being killed off or recurving should be taken with the littlest of a grain of salt.

I’ll wait to see where it’s at in looks and trajectory in a few days to be certain of its fate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#108 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:08 pm

12z GFS survives the TUTT quite well, but doesn’t find any super favorable conditions in the rest of the run. Smacks Bermuda again, this time as a Cat 2.

12z CMC doesn’t develop this until it passes the Leeward Islands, then it stalls over an area of very high SSTs and OHC.

12z HWRF once again has slow development for the next few days, before it starts intensifying into a hurricane over the weekend. This appears to be when UL winds will be the most favorable before 95L encounters the TUTT early next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#109 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:10 pm

12z HWRF, by far its strongest run so far. Consistently above 35 kt as of +24 (Wednesday morning), 65+ kt as of +99 (Saturday morning). An intensifying cat 2 at the end of the run.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#110 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:53 pm

12Z Euro loop through 192 hours, an uneventful model run which is good news:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#111 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437797848960077827




A lot of things can change, but the future doesn't look bright for 95L at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#112 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like nearly an identical 500MB setup for 95l as with Larry on this particular run of the long-range GFS with a one-two punch of troughs rolling off the eastern seaboard. Those troughs usher in well below normal temps for much of the eastern half of the CONUS:

https://i.postimg.cc/MpvPW5qw/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-294.gif


Interesting, my local forecast (southern Wisconsin) has much ABOVE-normal temperatures from Thursday through the end of the period. 87 Sunday, 88 Monday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#113 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:19 pm

95L gets eaten by a stalling 96L on the 12z Euro.

Also, the 12z HWRF-P gets its focus stuck on a low pressure area over Africa, so we don’t know what the UL environment in the 12z HWRF is like. 95L’s more robust intensification phase suggests it might be closer to being under the anticyclone in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#114 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:36 pm

12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#115 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:44 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png


Wow :blowup:

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#116 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png


Wow :blowup:

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l
. Apparently not just 95l. If the models are to be believed the rest of September could be anomolosly (sp) quiet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#117 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:40 pm

otowntiger wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png


Wow :blowup:

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l
. Apparently not just 95l. If the models are to be believed the rest of September could be anomolosly (sp) quiet.


Quite interestingly, the models are also pretty bearish about future activity in the WPAC and EPAC for most of this month...huh????
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#118 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:05 pm

otowntiger wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png


Wow :blowup:

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l
. Apparently not just 95l. If the models are to be believed the rest of September could be anomolosly (sp) quiet.
Good news if true. Hopefully the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends soon enough!!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#119 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:10 pm

I’m just afraid that this is the calm before the storm… it may signal the shutdown to the MDR but I’m more concerned about what may come out of the Western Caribbean in October.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#120 Postby blp » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:38 pm

18z is a different run again. No 96l as it gets out quick. Ridge building in this time more.

Big variations in the mid range.

Edit: another low develops to dent the ridge. Also rapidly strengthening this time north of the islands. Crazy.
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