ATL: PETER - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7551
Age: 43
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#141 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:24 pm

Hwrf further south with a hurricane nearing the islands.

Image
4 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#142 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:30 pm

Lol at the one GEFS member that takes 95L through the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico tracking west.
1 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#143 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:20 pm

Comparing 18z ECENS w/ 18z GEFS
ECENS seems not to be impressed, with less, & less weak members (although tight spread)
Image

GEFS seems to be confused. Something, somewhere in the western hemisphere is highly likely
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3972
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#144 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:25 pm

00z ICON is running and appears to be way further South with the consolidation versus 18z. Will be interesting to see where this ends up.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#145 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:36 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:00z ICON is running and appears to be way further South with the consolidation versus 18z. Will be interesting to see where this ends up.

Looks exactly like Euro through 126 hrs
0 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#146 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:51 pm

00Z GFS consolidates 95L further south closer to 10N.

Edit: Looks like it is about the same latitude as the 18Z run through 66 hours.
0 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2895
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#147 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:28 pm

0z GFS has a Cat 1 N or the islands so far
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4483
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#148 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:32 pm

0z gfs going west under a building high
0 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#149 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:33 pm

00Z GFS a lot stronger and faster.
0 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

Landy
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:43 pm
Location: Daytona Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#150 Postby Landy » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:35 pm

Something I noticed last run was that a low was around that allowed 95L to slow significantly moving generally northward around 192hr+, but it's not here anymore and as a result it's moving west now. Window washing! :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7075
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#151 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:36 pm

IcyTundra wrote:00Z GFS a lot stronger and faster.


Could be a threat to the Bahamas, Florida or the SE US based on this run
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3972
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#152 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:37 pm

There's just way too much back and forth going on to get a real sense of what will happen when this gets closer to 60 West. This will continue to be a "bear watching" through the weekend.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#153 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:42 pm

Maybe due to the 00Z GFS showing 95L moving faster 95L is able to get under the high that is building in forcing it further west and not allowing a turn north quickly.
1 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2895
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#154 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:45 pm

Takes a while for it to fully develop on this run but once it does there's no looking back and it's a major by the time it gets close to the Bahamas. So many possibilities with this thing but I believe this is the third run in a row now from the GFS that doesn't really show a TUTT (or if it does it doesn't have much of an effect on it)
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#155 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:47 pm

Misses the Bahamas to the north probably going to hit the Outer Banks on this run.
Last edited by IcyTundra on Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3972
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#156 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:48 pm

Here comes the shortwave to save the day. I'm guessing a pass between Bermuda and the Outer Banks.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7075
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#157 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:49 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Takes a while for it to fully develop on this run but once it does there's no looking back and it's a major by the time it gets close to the Bahamas. So many possibilities with this thing but I believe this is the third run in a row now from the GFS that doesn't really show a TUTT (or if it does it doesn't have much of an effect on it)

I have a weird feeling the eastern seaboard will have to watch this, models seem to be over the last day or so trending west and the GFS is trending stronger so I wouldn’t say out to sea or dissipation yet
1 likes   

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2895
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#158 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:52 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Takes a while for it to fully develop on this run but once it does there's no looking back and it's a major by the time it gets close to the Bahamas. So many possibilities with this thing but I believe this is the third run in a row now from the GFS that doesn't really show a TUTT (or if it does it doesn't have much of an effect on it)

I have a weird feeling the eastern seaboard will have to watch this, models seem to be over the last day or so trending west and the GFS is trending stronger so I wouldn’t say out to sea or dissipation yet

Yeah I don't really think this gets killed by the TUTT. If the TUTT actually materializes it may have an effect on it but I think 95L is gonna be somewhat of a problem down the line. Way to early to have any idea where it's going to be but if the GFS keeps pumping out runs like the last few, it's gonna get concerning considering it's prone to underestimate ridges
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2895
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#159 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:54 pm

948mb peak, with the outer edge scraping the Outer Banks

HMON and HWRF are about to run, now watch them show something completely different :lol:
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3972
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#160 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:55 pm

Obviously the GFS is in fantasyland at this point but if that shortwave decides to have a negative tilt it could whip this around up into the New England states. Similar setup to Sandy.
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests