ATL: PETER - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#161 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:57 pm

The only thing saving the SE from getting hit this run is that shortwave trough in the atlantic. If that wasn't there then the ridge would be to strong to turn 95L out to sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#162 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:58 pm

IcyTundra wrote:The only thing saving the SE from getting hit this run is that shortwave trough in the atlantic. If that wasn't there then the ridge would be to strong to turn 95L out to sea.


SE gets spared this run but I'm not so sure that the NE doesn't get smacked.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#163 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:58 pm

Yep, Boston and Cape Cod take a direct hit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#164 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:00 am

HMON is much slower and further SE than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#165 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:00 am

Man the NE gets hit with a major this run. Yeah that's not happening but at least it's entertaining :lol: Gotta love fantasy land GFS

The major near Bahamas part of the run is certainly possible though
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#166 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:01 am

00Z GFS wants the Long Island Express 2.0. Good thing that it won't happen but it is some nice eye candy.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#167 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:03 am

Major Hurricane making landfall in Maine. Yep this sure takes the cake for craziest GFS fantasyland run this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#168 Postby Landy » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:06 am

It's going to be a long few days of watching with this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#169 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:34 am

06z GFS once again survives the TUTT. Strangely, another TC randomly forms next Wednesday ahead of 95L and makes landfall in the Carolinas. This is the first run of any model I’ve seen to show such a system.

Update: passes between the US and Bermuda like Earl ‘10, peaking as a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#170 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:54 am

I have to wonder what that run would have looked like had that other system not developed off of the Carolinas.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#171 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:08 am

6z HWRF takes forever to develop 95L, and it only gets it to a mid-grade TS before weakening begins on Monday.

Edit: actually it’s only a quick weakening before it resumes strengthening. This run is back to being on the SW side of the model guidance, and puts 95L at around 15N/55W by 126hr.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#172 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:23 am

aspen wrote:6z HWRF takes forever to develop 95L, and it only gets it to a mid-grade TS before weakening begins on Monday.

Image
06z HWRF... Finishes 2 degrees S and 4-5 degrees W of 00z... Finishes as moderate TS compared to Cat 1 on 00z... It seems if 95L delays significant development until after @50W or remains a weaker/shallower TD/TS it may impact the NE Caribbean/GA... NHC says 90% of development, so I'm assuming 95L gets named...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#173 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:28 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:I have to wonder what that run would have looked like had that other system not developed off of the Carolinas.


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+1

If it’s a ghost storm look out below.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#174 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:35 am

Takes forever to develop based on satellite this thing is in no hurry so it might be right.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#175 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:44 am

Well now this is got slightly more interesting.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#176 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:02 am

SFLcane wrote:Takes forever to develop based on satellite this thing is in no hurry so it might be right.

https://i.postimg.cc/rwHLNF6M/990336-D3-47-BE-4779-9-D0-E-FDFA7-C9064-FE.png

In this scenario, 95L could attempt a RI phase (the UL environment is decent and it’s over 28.5-29.5C SSTs with good OHC), but the TUTT awaits further NE. Anything from a weak TS to a low-end major is possible in this type of track depending on how 95L puts itself together on Saturday and Sunday. The slower 95L develops in the 3-5 day range, the more likely it’ll be killed by the TUTT.

Part of the reason for the slow development could be the offset of the mid-level spin (~12N) from the main center of vorticity (~10N), and over the next few days the spin and northern lobe rotate down towards the main vort, with 95L concentrating at 10-11N like the GFS/HWRF have been showing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#177 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:11 am

Huh... that low off the Carolinas wasn't there last night.

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#178 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:18 am

IcyTundra wrote:00Z GFS wants the Long Island Express 2.0. Good thing that it won't happen but it is some nice eye candy.


It absolutely 100% could happen. New England is severely overdue for a hurricane and has gotten insanely lucky since Bob.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#179 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:25 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#180 Postby Stormybajan » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:35 am


Wouldnt this cause for the vorticity to jump north then instead? Doesnt vorticity always follow the convection? Like what the euro shows
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