ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ODETTE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:11 am

AL, 96, 2021091412, , BEST, 0, 235N, 715W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 95, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al762021 to al962021,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:24 am

The track and timing of 96L is quite similar to Humberto ‘19. It likely won’t get nearly as strong, though. The eastward trends are a welcome sign.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:26 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:29 pm

Although there seems to be no dominant llc it does seem that the banding from the nw and the banding from the turks and Caicos are trying to consolidate. The nw banding looks like the tail end of the trough split. While the turks and Caicos banding looks to dominate. Of course that could be very temporary.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:58 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:26 pm

That sure looks to me on the last frames that an LLC is forming. It is no longer entangled with the ULL and has an anticyclone forming above it. This looks way better than it did earlier today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:35 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:That sure looks to me on the last frames that an LLC is forming. It is no longer entangled with the ULL and has an anticyclone forming above it. This looks way better than it did earlier today.


I feel like it is finally starting cyclogenesis and here’s what I think on track, weaker means more likely stall while a stronger system will get out of the way of 95L so this system may give TS conditions to the Carolinas but it’s strength of this could be a cliffhanger in the saga of 95L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:41 pm

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to
northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:42 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:That sure looks to me on the last frames that an LLC is forming. It is no longer entangled with the ULL and has an anticyclone forming above it. This looks way better than it did earlier today.


I feel like it is finally starting cyclogenesis and here’s what I think on track, weaker means more likely stall while a stronger system will get out of the way of 95L so this system may give TS conditions to the Carolinas but it’s strength of this could be a cliffhanger in the saga of 95L

Agreed. Hopefully it stays away from the coast and puts a lid on 95L but anything is possible at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:04 pm

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437887445224280065




I know Bastardi is pretty controversial, but you can't deny that he knows his stuff.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:21 pm

He nailed Nicholas intensifying at least 12 hrs in advance and nailed exactly why...his ranting and unmatched ability to go off on some unrelated tangent is unmatched (and annoying)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:35 pm

If 96L manages to become Odette, then I'll be very satisfied. Don't ask me why, I just feel like 96L's destiny is just that for some reason :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:10 am

Still right much of a mess. 95l looks much better. But I'm wondering if this will become Odette because of proximity to us mainland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:47 am

Looks like the LLC is racing out ahead of the convection
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:50 am

I'm not convinced this develops yet. Hardly any of the models develop it and the ones that do are extremely weak (12z GFS doesn't count). Could be an outside chance at a weak TD but I think the probs of development are less than the current 70% and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go down soon.

Also hasn't really gotten any better organized since yesterday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:34 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I'm not convinced this develops yet. Hardly any of the models develop it and the ones that do are extremely weak (12z GFS doesn't count). Could be an outside chance at a weak TD but I think the probs of development are less than the current 70% and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go down soon.

Also hasn't really gotten any better organized since yesterday

HWRF/HMON develop it, and every global model has a low becoming very well-defined. Only question will be convective organization as it will be displaced during the formative stage (i.e. now). Best chance at strengthening is as it starts to transition. Modeling has a slightly sheared CDO around that time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:42 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I'm not convinced this develops yet. Hardly any of the models develop it and the ones that do are extremely weak (12z GFS doesn't count). Could be an outside chance at a weak TD but I think the probs of development are less than the current 70% and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go down soon.

Also hasn't really gotten any better organized since yesterday

HWRF/HMON develop it, and every global model has a low becoming very well-defined. Only question will be convective organization as it will be displaced during the formative stage (i.e. now). Best chance at strengthening is as it starts to transition. Modeling has a slightly sheared CDO around that time.

Yeah we'll see. If it moves slower it may be able to do something before it becomes ET. I could very well be wrong but I'm not too confident this ends up doing anything
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:07 pm

Satellite images indicate that a low pressure system located a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas is gradually becoming
better defined. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast.
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this
week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently enroute to
investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:23 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Looks like the LLC is racing out ahead of the convection


Yep. In fact, I see two vort centers moving westward in tandem on the NW flank of this trough, and possibly a third to the SE along the trough axis. This needs to do a fair bit of consolidating before it gets classified as a TC.
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