ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

INIT 25/0300Z 12.4N 45.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 12.7N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 13.1N 48.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 50.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 14.1N 51.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 14.8N 52.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 15.7N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 17.4N 55.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 19.5N 58.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

[CrazyC83]

Surprised they didn't go with 100 kts given the eye temp

That would be over-doing it, since no one has T5.5 at this point. 90 kt might have been justified, but that's it.

[Iceresistance]

Sam is also a compact Hurricane, he could be either much stronger or weaker than forecasted, tiny systems are harder to forecast because of their unpredictability

[skyline385]

From the discussion,

In fact, recent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is only about 6 n mi.

How small is the eye then?

[WiscoWx02]

Surprised they didn't go with 100 kts given the eye temp

We'll probably be there tomorrow morning don't worry.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like Sam decided to commit to the inner eyewall, or maybe it was a meld

[abajan]

From the discussion,

In fact, recent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is only about 6 n mi.

How small is the eye then?

Just by eyeballing it on satellite imagery and comparing it to the width of Barbados which I know to be 14 miles, I reckon it's about 12 miles wide.

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0.

[grapealcoholic]

That was an aggressive CB wrap

[ElectricStorm]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 979.1mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +11.8C Cloud Region Temp : -57.0C

[ElectricStorm]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 979.1mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +11.8C Cloud Region Temp : -57.0C

I think the 5.4 is closer to reality

[Blinhart]

looks are deceiving I know, but from just looking at him, I would think of 100 Kts to be more accurate if not a little low.

[grapealcoholic]

Movement definitely looks more W now than earlier

[Yellow Evan]

looks are deceiving I know, but from just looking at him, I would think of 100 Kts to be more accurate if not a little low.

Probably 95 knotsish due to lag but you aren’t wrong here.

[KirbyDude25]

Probably 95 knotsish due to lag but you aren’t wrong here.

ADT numbers are up to CI 5.0 with raw and Adjusted T numbers of 5.4. I think 95 knots is a good estimate.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like in the last several frames of sat. that maybe an EWRC is starting. The inner wall seems to be opening up

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like in the last several frames of sat. that maybe an EWRC is starting. The inner wall seems to be opening up

Way too soon. This inner core is ripping

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like in the last several frames of sat. that maybe an EWRC is starting. The inner wall seems to be opening up

Way too soon. This inner core is ripping

Well either the eye is expanding on its own or the hourglass shape it is resembling is ?

[ScottNAtlanta]

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like in the last several frames of sat. that maybe an EWRC is starting. The inner wall seems to be opening up

Way too soon. This inner core is ripping

Well either the eye is expanding on its own or the hourglass shape it is resembling is ?

It's high cirrus clouds covering the eye. Just means it's going off lol