ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1561 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:35 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Eye looks big but still much smaller than Larry's

Larrys was like 3 times this eye's size. Larry was absolutely massive.

Yea this is closer to Laura; should be small enough to see some RI soon
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1562 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:53 pm

Image

This is going places.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1563 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:05 am

Maybe recon will find Sam is a Cat 4 again. Or at the very least, it could become one by the morning.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1564 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:09 am

galaxy401 wrote:Maybe recon will find Sam is a Cat 4 again. Or at the very least, it could become one by the morning.

I'd guess they find 110-115 similar to ADT
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1565 Postby bob rulz » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:36 am

I'm going to guess 110 kts. Winds may not have caught up yet but it's certainly re-strengthening.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1566 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:40 am

Recon supports 110 kt right now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1567 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:54 am

Rapid intensification.

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1568 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:13 am

Impressive drop in the NW eyewall.
130-150 kt all the way between 400 and 3000 ft above the surface.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1569 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:23 am

TXNT24 KNES 280559
TCSNTL

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 28/0530Z

C. 17.0N

D. 53.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E#
OF 5.0 WITH NO EADJ FOR A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1570 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:30 am

It's near an SST gradient so any W jog is a big deal
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1571 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:43 am

Bet they get close to 120 in this NE pass
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1572 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:01 am

126 kt FL in the latest pass, supports a 115 kt cat 4. While the passes did come from different directions it's still 11 kt more than the 115 kt FL that was found during the first pass which could indicate that Sam is intensifying at a high rate.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1573 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:09 am

Also 117 kt SFMR kt right now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1574 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:12 am

This is going to be one heck of an ACE producer..
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1575 Postby Owasso » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:24 am

Image

Sam has clearly strengthened tonight, dropsonde supports 953mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1576 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:42 am

Indeed, I think they'll go with 953mb/115kt for the next advisory. Sam is turning out to be a very impressive MH, a massive ACE machine. I think we'll get at least one more peak out of Sam. Not sure if it'll rival the previous peak, but who knows. I really hope it can get an operational cat 5 status and it might have a shot with the higher OHC later.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1577 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:44 am

Image

Nearing T6.0.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1578 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:47 am


Note that ATCF (BT) now lists Sam as 115 kt / 952 mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1579 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:07 am

New advisory followed best track and went with 952mb/115kt so Sam is a cat 4 again. Raw T# are now at 6.3 and Sam is continuining to improve rapidly. Next recon leaves at 1530z and will arrive at 1800z so in about 9 hours. NHC peaks this at 120 kt, but if Sam continues to improve at its current rate I think the next recon mission could already find significantly stronger winds.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1580 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:09 am

kevin wrote:New advisory followed best track and went with 952mb/115kt so Sam is a cat 4 again. Raw T# are now at 6.3 and Sam is continuining to improve rapidly. Next recon leaves at 1530z and will arrive at 1800z so in about 9 hours. NHC peaks this at 120 kt, but if Sam continues to improve at its current rate I think the next recon mission could already find significantly stronger winds.


... or miss the peak yet again and find a weakening storm during another EWRC :)
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