ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1361 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:13 pm

Yankee Corn Husker wrote:
tolakram wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:
I should have clarified better, for some reason the last tidbit I tried to put into that did not upload. I wasn't talking anything damage related. The moral of what I was saying is that if it is not going to hit land, the NHC is not going to upgrade it to a category 5 based on satellite presentation. If, for whatever reason, there were to be an issue with data and satellite is all we had, then they would be more inclined to upgrade for urgency reason's. Cat 4 and 5 do the same damage but Cat 5 is more of an alarming statement. The JTWC upgrades cat 5's based on satellite all the time but the NHC never does. That's another way to look at what I am saying.


Nothing you said here is true. Please stop posting conjecture as fact.


Is this addressed to me or another poster? Not sure how this all works. Do not desire to offend anybody here. Only posted what I presumed to be a reputable source. Mea Culpa!


Look at the reply chain in the message, I was not replying to you. You were both wrong, and I don't think either one of you was trying to offend, nevertheless, wrong. :lol:

- Storms are not retired just because they get to cat 5.

- The NHC will upgrade any storm anywhere to cat 5 if the evidence supports it. They don't hold back on upgrading just because it's not threatening land.

Just to be clear.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1362 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:13 pm

ThetaE wrote:Eye dropsonde is 932 mb with 31kt winds. Supports 929mb.

Latest data from reconnaissance + KZC P/W relationship essentially confirm that Sam attained Cat-5 status (150+ kt) earlier in its lifespan.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1363 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:13 pm

Sam looks like its eye is about to disappear into oblivion.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1364 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:14 pm

This should be upgraded to a Cat 5 in post-season analysis. Using the current pressure and knowledge that Sam has weakened over a few hours, then estimating the peak pressure and using the KCZ method gives a 925-927mb/140kt Cat 5 earlier this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1365 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:20 pm

Next pass is NE to SW

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1366 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:21 pm

Tempted to start a "Will Sam be upgraded to Cat 5?" poll, but that might be premature as 1) they haven't sampled the other quads yet, and 2) Sam could jolly well intensify to Cat 5 officially in the next few days with higher OHC.

Nevertheless, "Will Sam's intensity on September 26 be upgraded to Cat 5?" is still valid.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1367 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:23 pm

While our five-season streak of having a Cat. 5 in the Atlantic was snapped with Iota's downgrade (and should be trimmed on the other end as well, since it seems to be almost universally agreed that Matthew 2016's upgrade was generous); it is pretty remarkable that we are now a five-season streak of at least two 130kt (150 MPH)+ super-typhoon equivalent TCs in the Atlantic basin.

2017: Irma, Jose, Maria
2018: Florence, Michael
2019: Dorian, Lorenzo
2020: Laura, Eta, Iota
2021: Ida, Sam
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1368 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:23 pm

tolakram wrote:
Yankee Corn Husker wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Nothing you said here is true. Please stop posting conjecture as fact.


Is this addressed to me or another poster? Not sure how this all works. Do not desire to offend anybody here. Only posted what I presumed to be a reputable source. Mea Culpa!


Look at the reply chain in the message, I was not replying to you. You were both wrong, and I don't think either one of you was trying to offend, nevertheless, wrong. :lol:

- Storms are not retired just because they get to cat 5.

- The NHC will upgrade any storm anywhere to cat 5 if the evidence supports it. They don't hold back on upgrading just because it's not threatening land.

Just to be clear.


Yeah, not my intent at all! Now I know it is a ludicrous idea that I have been having for years based off what everyone else is saying. Don't want to go around with the wrong idea and won't anymore, thanks again guys for the input 8-)
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1369 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:24 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1370 Postby zzh » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:25 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1371 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:28 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1372 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:30 pm

Sam had no EWRC it had an EWDC(Eyewall disappearance cycle.)
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1373 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:31 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1374 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:32 pm

If I had a dollar for every ERC mention I'd be rich. lol
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1375 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:32 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1376 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:33 pm

Jeez this storm has been acting weird today. Anomalous due-W motion then switching to due-N motion (although Sam seems to have resumed a NW track now), and now this very quick EWRC or something. Strange that Sam is still degrading despite the cycle possibly having already completed.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1377 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:34 pm

aspen wrote:This should be upgraded to a Cat 5 in post-season analysis. Using the current pressure and knowledge that Sam has weakened over a few hours, then estimating the peak pressure and using the KCZ method gives a 925-927mb/140kt Cat 5 earlier this afternoon.

I thought the same thing for Jose and they didn’t upgrade it by backtracking to when it looked best. Doubt they will do the same here with Sam unless N/NE quad has interesting findings.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1378 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:35 pm

tolakram wrote:If I had a dollar for every ERC mention I'd be rich. lol

Which would make you richer, ERC or cat 5?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1379 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:38 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
tolakram wrote:If I had a dollar for every ERC mention I'd be rich. lol

Which would make you richer, ERC or cat 5?

He would be a millionaire either way lol.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1380 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:41 pm

761
URNT12 KWBC 262336
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182021
A. 26/22:37:19Z
B. 14.43 deg N 050.56 deg W
C. NA
D. 932 mb
E. 120 deg 30 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7
H. 134 kt
I. 270 deg 4 nm 22:36:23Z
J. 009 deg 119 kt
K. 270 deg 7 nm 22:35:35Z
L. 98 kt
M. 090 deg 7 nm 22:39:02Z
N. 174 deg 120 kt
O. 090 deg 8 nm 22:39:06Z
P. 13 C / 3064 m
Q. 20 C / 3065 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0218A SAM OB 09
MAX FL WIND 120 KT 090 / 8 NM 22:39:06Z
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