ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Either Sam has weakened by 5 mbar, or recon missed the center. This weakening rate would suggest a peak pressure of 924mb a few hours ago.

The NHC needs to put out a special advisory NOW to record Sam’s minimum observed pressure of 929mb.

Why?

[Highteeld]

I think it's safe to say a lot of us will be interested in what the NHC has to say about Sam in post-season analysis.

[Nimbus]

No way such a tiny eye is going to handle all that outflow.
Could see pressures down in the 920's.
Glad its headed OTS.

[Highteeld]

2ndary wind max at Flight Level

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1442278956606976000

[tolakram]

PLEASE READ

If you feel the need to criticize the NHC based on your amateur skills as a seasoned hurricane forecaster, DON'T. I'm serious, we tolerated a lot today but I'm getting tired of taking down posts about it. You are free to disagree with anyone, respectfully, but some of this nonsense about the NHC not following their own rules or not handling this system correctly is way over the top.

[RL3AO]

PLEASE READ

If you feel the need to criticize the NHC based on your amateur skills as a seasoned hurricane forecaster, DON'T. I'm serious, we tolerated a lot today but I'm getting tired of taking down posts about it. You are free to disagree with anyone, respectfully, but some of this nonsense about the NHC not following their own rules or not handling this system correctly is way over the top.

Everything can be adjusted in the BT/TCR. In the end that's what matters. If it was a cat 5 earlier today and they have enough evidence to support it or they can support a pressure in the mid-920s, it will be fixed later.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sam does not look good at all.

[Teban54]

I'm confused. Was Sam just starting an ERC when recon first arrived, or was it just finishing one?

[InfernoFlameCat]

I'm confused. Was Sam just starting an ERC when recon first arrived, or was it just finishing one?

Maybe both? But IMO its upwelling.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm confused. Was Sam just starting an ERC when recon first arrived, or was it just finishing one?

Maybe both? But IMO its upwelling.

If it was upwelling, we'd be seeing the southeast side degrade first which was not the case here.

[aspen]

Still heading almost due north, with maybe a slight nudge to the west. Sam’s track today has been almost as baffling as his EWRC.

If it was upwelling, we'd be seeing the southeast side degrade first which was not the case here.

Why the SE side specifically? Because it’s the closest to where the center last was and where the cold wake is?

[NotoSans]

Sam is beginning an ERC, not completing one. Subsequent passes show the double wind maxima is becoming more apparent. Satellite imagery shows a clear dry moat in the western side of the CDO, and the eye is filling up. These satellite features are indicative of the start of an ERC.

[Yellow Evan]

Still heading almost due north, with maybe a slight nudge to the west. Sam’s track today has been almost as baffling as his EWRC.

If it was upwelling, we'd be seeing the southeast side degrade first which was not the case here.

Why the SE side specifically? Because it’s the closest to where the center last was and where the cold wake is?

Yes.

[Iceresistance]

Sam's luck of maintaining strength while doing sneaky EWRC's has finally ran out . . .

[aspen]

I have no idea what kind of intensity and track I’m going to wake up to tomorrow. Sam’s EWRC and strange N movement could weaken it down to a Cat 3 and shift the forecast track to the NE. Or it could rapidly recover and not be much weaker. Or it could start heading SW to really mess with us.

[Yellow Evan]

Sam is beginning an ERC, not completing one. Subsequent passes show the double wind maxima is becoming more apparent. Satellite imagery shows a clear dry moat in the western side of the CDO, and the eye is filling up. These satellite features are indicative of the start of an ERC.

Considering the winds have dropped from yesterday despite the falling pressure, it’s probably decently through it. Although the first recon pass seem to imply it was basically done, I’ll chalk that up to undersampling the highest FL winds and not yet there being a full outer wind maxima.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/lebelluke/status/1442286477094838274




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1442288513416790022

[Iceresistance]

943 MB Eye drop, very rapid weakening

[ElectricStorm]

18L SAM 210927 0000 14.5N 50.6W ATL 130 940