ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

If I had a dollar for every ERC mention I'd be rich. lol

Which would make you richer, ERC or cat 5?

Cat 5...by far

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

So cool

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1442273255180668928

[ScottNAtlanta]

Look at the eye shrink...this is wild. FYI this is the normal loop speed. Convection is just spinning that fast. Where are all you "pinhole eye" people now that you really have one!

[Iceresistance]

Is it possible where there is an EWRC that the eye gets Smaller after it's complete?

[SteveM]

I agree with others that this was likely a 140kt Cat 5 earlier. I also agree that a quick EWRC took place earlier - I did note that the eye had appeared to expand a few hours ago, perhaps that is roughly when it happened.

[SteveM]

Is it possible where there is an EWRC that the eye gets Smaller after it's complete?

That happens after the EWRC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Anyone remember what the smallest the eye got with Wilma? Recon says they measured 7 miles in Sam but it looks like it is still shrinking

[Iceresistance]

Anyone remember what the smallest the eye got with Wilma? Recon says they measured 7 miles in Sam but it looks like it is still shrinking

2 Nautical Miles

[tolakram]

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/Dve2fXB.gif

I would say it is on the verge of another EWRC because it cant get much smaller, but as the eye shrinks the winds pick up...isn't that the law of angular momentum? As the eye shrinks the winds increase? I hope recon gets there before it breaks down.

[Stormybajan]

I think Sam hates people and gets offended when recon is near . Only explanation after seeing such a random, rapid collapse of the eye.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/Dve2fXB.gif

I would say it is on the verge of another EWRC because it cant get much smaller, but as the eye shrinks the winds pick up...isn't that the law of angular momentum? As the eye shrinks the winds increase?

Yea, if that's what's happening. Maybe? I really don't know. It's such a clean reduction in size I don't think it's shear, could be a shrinking eye, could be lower water temps, could be anything.

F. CLOSED
G. C7

VDM had C7, circular eye 7 miles across. Pretty small already, now maybe smaller. We'll have to see if it's broken this time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressures are up in Sam on that pass. Weakening has definitely occurred.

[aspen]

Either Sam has weakened by 5 mbar, or recon missed the center. This weakening rate would suggest a peak pressure of 924mb a few hours ago.

The NHC needs to put out a special advisory NOW to record Sam’s minimum observed pressure of 929mb.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/Dve2fXB.gif

I would say it is on the verge of another EWRC because it cant get much smaller, but as the eye shrinks the winds pick up...isn't that the law of angular momentum? As the eye shrinks the winds increase?

Yea, if that's what's happening. Maybe? I really don't know. It's such a clean reduction in size I don't think it's shear, could be a shrinking eye, could be lower water temps, could be anything.

F. CLOSED
G. C7

VDM had C7, circular eye 7 miles across. Pretty small already, now maybe smaller. We'll have to see if it's broken this time.

They just passed it, but I think they missed it (not hard if it is that small)

[Yankee Corn Husker]

Is it possible where there is an EWRC that the eye gets Smaller after it's complete?

The incredible shrinking eye!

[Ubuntwo]

Quite a pressure rise this pass. Should support a pressure below 929 mb between the two recon flights.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think it has started the EWRC. The black ring looks like it is forming the new eye

[Yellow Evan]

Either Sam has weakened by 5 mbar, or recon missed the center. This weakening rate would suggest a peak pressure of 924mb a few hours ago.

The NHC needs to put out a special advisory NOW to record Sam’s minimum observed pressure of 929mb.

They can fix the pressure in the TCR.