ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/NEPPsyQ.jpg
EWRC.

The outer eyewall formation is incomplete...so not yet

https://i.imgur.com/VvSgiXR.jpg

You can see them on visible imagery too. Red is the inner eyewall, orange is the outer eyewall.

We'll only see gradual intensification until the EWRC completes. That inner eyewall is quite persistent, so it could take until midday tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT24 KNES 241749
TCSNTL

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 11.9N

D. 44.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN DT OF 4.5. ADDITIONALLY, THE 1604Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MW PASS INCREASES
THE CONFIDENCE OF LLCC POSITION AND AN EYE LIKE FEATURE IS DETECTED IN
THE MW IMAGERY. MOREOVER, THE 89 GHZ MW IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE BANDS
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM LLCC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ACTIVE
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUILD ON TOP AND NEAR THE LLCC INDICATING A
DEEPENING SYSTEM. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1604Z 11.9N 44.0W AMSR2


...PATE

[Patti]

[quote="GCANE"]The weaker it stays relative to forecast, the more the track will be west of the forecast.[/quote]

That would not be good news for us in St Maarten. We are holding our breathe while steadily preparing.

[kevin]

Eye clearing out on IR. I'm always fascinated by these early stages of soon-to-be intense hurricanes.

[aspen]

Forecast peak raised to 120 kt, expected to become a major hurricane by tomorrow afternoon.

[Teban54]

I fail to see how Sam is not already RIing with that rapidly warming eye, now up to -30C. Just my opinion.

Edit: Now up to -20C in just a matter of minutes. And this is considering there's an imminent EWRC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pretty impressive to watch Sam develop like this at dmin

[Teban54]

This is in the span of half an hour, during DMIN and with an outer eyewall lurking around:

[grapealcoholic]

It'll probably just meld with how deep this convection is

[InfernoFlameCat]

The inner eyewall may hold its own and meld the outer eyewall into it. I believe this is what will happen given the rapid deepening of the system which will pull in the outer eyewall too fast to choke out the inner eyewall before they merge.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'd say watch for a potential eyewall meld here, like others have mentioned. Even if an ERC does happen, Sam will likely get to major status before the ERC at this rate. Exploding right now.

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty impressive to watch Sam develop like this at dmin

Dmin doesn’t hinder deeper storms like this one given the adequate thermodynamic environment historically.

[ScottNAtlanta]

EWRC would expand the wind field.

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

Pretty impressive to watch Sam develop like this at dmin

Dmin doesn’t hinder deeper storms like this one given the adequate thermodynamic environment historically.

They definitely get a boost at DMAX even at more developed levels

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty impressive to watch Sam develop like this at dmin

Dmin doesn’t hinder deeper storms like this one given the adequate thermodynamic environment historically.

They definitely get a boost at DMAX even at more developed levels

Only if it’s over marginal SST’s where the storm isn’t as vertically deep.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like an ERC after all

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like an ERC after all

BD has looked ERCy at times but…

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1441519568049090561

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like an ERC after all

BD has looked ERCy at times but…

https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1441519568049090561?s=21

Hmm whatever happened that new structure looks stable