ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

It's already rapidly strengthened today, and now it's taking on a shrimp look. Wouldn't count out more RI

It hasn’t though, we’re looking at a 5-10mb drop and 5-10kt increase since this morning. It’s improving, but don’t expect anything rapid until it finishes sorting out its multiple eyewalls

[kevin]

But seriously Sam is looking really good right now. It looks like we might finally have a recon now that will arrive at good moment for us online storm trackers. No RI yet, but probably steady continuous strengthening.

[grapealcoholic]

The outer band in the SE quad will slow things down

[tolakram]

[skyline385]

But seriously Sam is looking really good right now. It looks like we might finally have a recon now that will arrive at good moment for us online storm trackers. No RI yet, but probably steady continuous strengthening.

Last fix was 957mb, it surely is not going to be done intensifying by the time the next recon gets there. It will most likely be in the 940s and maybe we see 110 kt winds...

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

First recon pass, 952.9 mbar.

[cheezyWXguy]

That is a huge eye trying to come out, I wonder if Sam will try to go annular in a couple days when the heat content starts to drop

[aspen]

That is a huge eye trying to come out, I wonder if Sam will try to go annular in a couple days when the heat content starts to drop

It’ll probably contract a bit, but yeah that’s quite a big eye. The fact that it’s so easily seen on IR imagery with additional cooling within it means this EWRC is progressing much better than last night’s cycle. If all goes well, it should be just about done by tomorrow morning. OHC will be on the rise by tomorrow afternoon, all the way through Wednesday night.


Also where was this fantastic recon schedule yesterday lol

[grapealcoholic]

That is a huge eye trying to come out, I wonder if Sam will try to go annular in a couple days when the heat content starts to drop

It's not quite as big as IR is making it seem. Diameter looks to be about half a degree of longitude (35 miles).

[InfernoFlameCat]

I expect that eye to contract significantly.

[skyline385]

That is a huge eye trying to come out, I wonder if Sam will try to go annular in a couple days when the heat content starts to drop

It's not quite as big as IR is making it seem. Diameter looks to be about half a degree of longitude (35 miles).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0618A-SAM.png

It's not done clearing though, can't use visible to judge eye when it's still clearing...

[Teban54]

That is a huge eye trying to come out, I wonder if Sam will try to go annular in a couple days when the heat content starts to drop

It’ll probably contract a bit, but yeah that’s quite a big eye. The fact that it’s so easily seen on IR imagery with additional cooling within it means this EWRC is progressing much better than last night’s cycle. If all goes well, it should be just about done by tomorrow morning. OHC will be on the rise by tomorrow afternoon, all the way through Wednesday night.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al18/ohcnfcst/2021al18_ohcnfcst_202109271800.gif

Also where was this fantastic recon schedule yesterday lol

Rooting for Sam to intensify enough to become an operational Cat 5. Though a larger eye might make that harder.

[grapealcoholic]

That is a huge eye trying to come out, I wonder if Sam will try to go annular in a couple days when the heat content starts to drop

It's not quite as big as IR is making it seem. Diameter looks to be about half a degree of longitude (35 miles).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0618A-SAM.png

It's not done clearing though, can't use visible to judge eye when it's still clearing...

No, i'm using the recon max wind bands

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's undergoing another EWRC. It seems some storms do this constantly and some (Laura 2020) never do. Very interesting field of study for someone out there as to why that is

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_18L/web/last24hrs.gif

[zzh]

[Ubuntwo]

It's undergoing another EWRC. It seems some storms do this constantly and some (Laura 2020) never do. Very interesting field of study for someone out there as to why that is

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_18L/web/last24hrs.gif

My guess is, this never really finished that first ERC, and got heavily disrupted. I could be wrong

Now looks almost wrapped up.

[Teban54]

114 kt FL, 94 kt SFMR. Strongest FL wind since the collapse IIRC.

Edit: Center pass had a 953.5 mb with 34 kt FL, and 954.6 with 13 kt FL. I'm not sure how to convert those readings (can someone ELI5?), but Sam is still deepening at a healthy rate.

[aspen]

Sam is exhibiting a very interesting wind structure this flight. Peak winds are associated with the new outer eyewall, but there's also a spike for the old inner eyewall -- the opposite of a double wind maxima seen before an EWRC. I didn't label this but the pressure gradient has widened as a result of the EWRC, just waiting for the winds to adjust.

[zzh]