ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Ok now Sam actually looks like it's weakening based on IR. Hope they revise the 5pm intensity to be a bit higher than whatever recon finds.

Yeah it definitely has at this point. Could easily bounce back later though but who knows.

It’s actual structure hasn’t degraded though, and it’s eye remains as warm as ever. It’s just the cloud tops that have warmed slightly, which alone I’m not convinced is a sign of weakening.

[Zonacane]

Ok now Sam actually looks like it's weakening based on IR. Hope they revise the 5pm intensity to be a bit higher than whatever recon finds.

Yeah it definitely has at this point. Could easily bounce back later though but who knows.

It’s actual structure hasn’t degraded though, and it’s eye remains as warm as ever. It’s just the cloud tops that have warmed slightly, which alone I’m not convinced is a sign of weakening.

Probably a satellite issue

[Zonacane]

lol I misread recon readout

[ElectricStorm]

I don't think it's weakening, if anything it may be holding steady

[aspen]

Something to remember: the extrapolated pressures from the NOAA planes run about 5-10mb higher than the actual pressures and dropsondes, which was seen a lot with Ida at its peak. If Miss Piggy finds extrapolated pressures of 945-950mb, then Sam might be as low as 935mb, but we’d have to wait for a drop.

[Ubuntwo]

942mb in the eye. Next set should be the NE quad.

[Stormybajan]

Going for 125 knots, doesnt look as mean as it did 2 hours ago. Still 145 mph is a very powerful hurricane ill say 940 mb pressure

[cycloneye]

There it is.

[Iceresistance]

First Pass: 942.1 Extrapolated

[skyline385]

The wind field is just so small in the W quad lol

[cycloneye]

942 mbs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

111 knots on the west quad, strongest quadrant not yet sampled.

[aspen]

The pressure could be a little lower. Miss Piggy isn’t in the exact center of the eye as of the most recent update, and as I posted earlier, the NOAA planes have a high pressure bias. We’ll see what the eye drop says in the next 20 minutes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

133 knot SFMR.

[kevin]

127 kt FL, 133 kt SFMR, 127 kt Est. Sfc. Wind so probably 125 - 130 kt right now. Might've been 135 kt a few hours ago.

[NDG]

Fairly impressive east eyewall. Very tight pressure gradient.

838
URNT15 KWBC 252218
NOAA2 WB18A SAM HDOB 21 20210925
220830 1317N 04831W 6959 02683 9422 +193 +062 186015 021 019 004 00
220900 1317N 04829W 6961 02706 9474 +153 +102 191068 095 109 002 00
220930 1317N 04827W 6869 ///// 9668 +115 +135 186121 127 133 016 21
221000 1316N 04825W 6770 03144 9750 +089 +116 178121 127 128 037 01
221030 1316N 04823W 6838 03118 9824 +091 +104 178109 117 103 045 01
221100 1316N 04822W 6901 03085 9885 +088 +100 176100 105 082 040 01
221130 1316N 04820W 6962 03053 9918 +097 +095 179094 097 071 025 00
221200 1316N 04818W 6947 03095 9958 +085 +105 173086 090 062 024 01
221230 1316N 04816W 6953 03106 9982 +085 +099 177079 084 052 016 01
221300 1315N 04814W 6954 03122 9992 +091 +087 177075 077 053 011 00
221330 1315N 04812W 6965 03117 0006 +091 +087 177068 073 048 015 01
221400 1315N 04810W 6961 03129 0014 +090 +092 163064 066 047 014 01
221430 1315N 04808W 6964 03131 0009 +101 +086 162058 062 042 014 00
221500 1315N 04806W 6961 03149 0021 +101 +081 168053 057 041 014 00
221530 1315N 04804W 6952 03165 0028 +101 +080 173053 056 043 011 00
221600 1314N 04802W 6964 03155 0034 +102 +083 177052 054 041 010 00
221630 1314N 04800W 6959 03166 0047 +094 +086 179053 053 042 009 00
221700 1314N 04758W 6956 03172 0053 +092 +084 184052 053 041 008 00
221730 1314N 04756W 6945 03191 0060 +089 +088 187051 053 042 014 01
221800 1314N 04754W 6961 03174 0062 +089 +096 189053 059 041 016 01

[GCANE]

SFMR supports Cat 4. Waiting for drops to confirm.

[Ubuntwo]

A very compact windfield and looks like near perfect mixing. SFMR is higher than FL as I guessed but that reading is just below the threshold the NHC have questioned lately (135kt+).

[skyline385]

The SFMR in the E quad is higher than Flight level winds???

[MarioProtVI]

127 kt FL, 133 kt SFMR, 127 kt Est. Sfc. Wind so probably 125 - 130 kt right now. Might've been 135 kt a few hours ago.

Blending supports only 123 kt so it likely is 125 kt.