ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

[grapealcoholic]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

Eh, the upper troposphere doesn't really vary much in temperature. I think it'll fire deeper convection soon

It's already heating the core extremely efficiently right now with an eye, even if it isn't THAT deep

[grapealcoholic]

Storms trade "convection deepness" for structure whenever they can. So a Cat 2 with a round warm eye probably shouldn't have deep convection, otherwise it would be a Cat 4.

[Iceresistance]

Storms trade "convection deepness" for structure whenever they can. So a Cat 2 with a round warm eye probably shouldn't have deep convection, otherwise it would be a Cat 4.

Unless Recon proves it otherwise, but Sam is too far out for Recon right now . . .

[skyline385]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

I doubt it matters much. Remember that Iota and Eta which were both closer to the equator too had extremely cold pink tops but they never even made it to Cat 5 and people called the cloud tops deceiving since it was October saying the atmosphere is colder back then.

[grapealcoholic]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

I doubt it matters much. Remember that Iota and Eta which were both closer to the equator too had extremely cold pink tops but they never even made it to Cat 5 and people called the cloud tops deceiving since it was October saying the atmosphere is colder back then.

Colder upper air temperatures do support stronger storms. I just think Eta needed time to catch up to it's convection

[Iceresistance]

Colder Cloud Tops starting to blow at the Eyewall, Sam is also moving WNW . . .

[skyline385]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

I doubt it matters much. Remember that Iota and Eta which were both closer to the equator too had extremely cold pink tops but they never even made it to Cat 5 and people called the cloud tops deceiving since it was October saying the atmosphere is colder back then.

Colder upper air temperatures do support stronger storms. I just think Eta needed time to catch up to it's convection

Yea they would support a stronger system simply because of the difference in temperatures but at the same time, the IR imagery would also show much colder tops than normal since the atmosphere is already cold.

[Teban54]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

I doubt it matters much. Remember that Iota and Eta which were both closer to the equator too had extremely cold pink tops but they never even made it to Cat 5 and people called the cloud tops deceiving since it was October saying the atmosphere is colder back then.

I think that only applied to Eta. Iota actually had more typical cloud tops and ADT was also more in line with actual intensity.

[grapealcoholic]

Keep in mind that at such a low latitude the atmosphere is in fact warmer and has more air that Sam can take advantage of. What I mean is that the earth's atmosphere bulges more the closer to the equator you get due to centrifugal forces due to the Earth's spin. In other words, Sam might have higher cloud tops than indicated by inferred satellites. Also the action of which Sam is bringing up warm air to high levels means that it is warming the atmosphere above it so cloud tops may have not decreased as much in height as it appears due to these factors. IMHO.

I doubt it matters much. Remember that Iota and Eta which were both closer to the equator too had extremely cold pink tops but they never even made it to Cat 5 and people called the cloud tops deceiving since it was October saying the atmosphere is colder back then.

I think that only applied to Eta. Iota actually had more typical cloud tops and ADT was also more in line with actual intensity.

Eta's raw ADT was much higher than it's adjusted. I think it could have gotten below 900 if it maintained those cloud tops

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

New towers starting to go up around the center

[galaxy401]

Sam is bombing out now. At this rate, it will be a major in just a few hours (if not one already).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Number 9 alert. Sam looks like number 9! RI continues!

[ElectricStorm]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 986.4mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +10.3C

Final Ts should start shooting up soon

[skyline385]

The last band is waning as well, this will probably end up being annular soon. The small size also supports it...

[grapealcoholic]

Last few frames look more W than WNW

[Teban54]

Given the continuous organization, I can see NHC going higher than the 85kt best track intensity in the upcoming advisory.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021

...SAM NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 45.9W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[grapealcoholic]

Surprised they didn't go with 100 kts given the eye temp