ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#321 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:39 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:

Pinhole developing

Lol what. MW imagery does not suggest a convective structure anywhere near well formed enough for a pinhole eye at this time. If anything, you’re seeing that overshooting top directly above the llc. Sam is strengthening, but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit


I agree, and I might add that I want some of what they are smokin' ...sharing among friends :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#322 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:39 pm

SconnieCane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Comparing the ECEN / GEFS 12z ensembles... starting to meet in the middle?
https://i.ibb.co/5LDPHjq/ecmdg.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/dBC5g03/ecmdh.jpg

Interestingly, fully four-fifths (80%) of the EPS and roughly half (~50%) of the GEFS members show Sam passing through Hebert Box #1.

I don't put too much stock in the Hebert boxes. Andrew (THE quintessential South Florida hurricane of my lifetime, and still of the last 30 years) missed them, and Maria bull’s-eyed #1 before blasting PR but missed the CONUS entirely.

Going back to 1851, I found twenty-one systems that passed through Hebert Box #1 during September or October while at MH status. Roughly half of them ended up striking the CONUS, whereas the other half eventually a) turned OTS or b) in a handful of cases struck either Bermuda or the Canadian Maritimes. So the record of the “box” is definitely mixed. Nevertheless, the later the date, the more likely an OTS path beyond the Islands. In the end, past the Islands, I would place my “bet” on OTS between Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#323 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:43 pm

No signs of a eye yet but Sam is erupting.

Source = https://col.st/55JIl

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#324 Postby zzh » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:46 pm

Image
Image
Image
Image
:eek: :eek: :eek: @BadPasses
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#325 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:56 pm

Oh boy! Already to 50 knots (60 mph)

...SAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 23
Location: 11.1°N 39.7°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#326 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:04 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:

Pinhole developing

Lol what. MW imagery does not suggest a convective structure anywhere near well formed enough for a pinhole eye at this time. If anything, you’re seeing that overshooting top directly above the llc. Sam is strengthening, but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit

There's still time to retract this..
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#327 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:06 pm

Sam should have no problem reaching MPI barring any dry air intrusion. Wind shear is virtually nonexistent ahead
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#328 Postby zzh » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:06 pm

From NHC's discussion:
Unfortunately, I have not received a high resolution microwave pass
over Sam in 9-12 hours, so there remains some uncertainty on the
structure underneath the cirrus canopy.

INIT 23/2100Z 11.1N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#329 Postby Stormybajan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:08 pm

Looks like the beginnings of a CDO...hurricane tomorrow morning?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#330 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:11 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#331 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:13 pm

Stormybajan wrote:Looks like the beginnings of a CDO...hurricane tomorrow morning?

As a matter of fact, that's what they've stated in the public advisory.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#332 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:18 pm

zzh wrote:From NHC's discussion:
Unfortunately, I have not received a high resolution microwave pass
over Sam in 9-12 hours, so there remains some uncertainty on the
structure underneath the cirrus canopy.

INIT 23/2100Z 11.1N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

Papin's discos are the best. Great writer
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#333 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:24 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Pinhole developing

Lol what. MW imagery does not suggest a convective structure anywhere near well formed enough for a pinhole eye at this time. If anything, you’re seeing that overshooting top directly above the llc. Sam is strengthening, but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit

There's still time to retract this..

Perfectly fine with my statement. Inner core building is still very much in progress.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#334 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:32 pm



Interesting and informative update....what I found interesting about this update was he makes mention of the warmer SSTs in the NW Atlantic...and generally over a large area of the Western/Central Atlantic...and looking ahead in the days to come....do these warmer temps translate to...or perhaps aid in development of a stronger, more pronounced ridge?....mere speculation this early in the period....but I find this to be interesting...and what role it will play...if any.... in Sam's future....
Last edited by underthwx on Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#335 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:34 pm

New ASCAT pass on Sam from 21:12 UTC

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#336 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:46 pm

Another CDO burst near the Approximate Center . . .

Also about to cross 40°W, showing no signs of turning towards the north either . . .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#337 Postby Woofde » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:57 pm

Sam is starting to get the shrimp look. We're gonna see a big burst come DMax.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#338 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:03 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Pinhole developing

Lol what. MW imagery does not suggest a convective structure anywhere near well formed enough for a pinhole eye at this time. If anything, you’re seeing that overshooting top directly above the llc. Sam is strengthening, but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit

There's still time to retract this..


It’s still a TS. An eye maybe beginning to form but we are a long way off from a pinhole eye forming just yet.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#339 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:04 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:

Pinhole developing


You have said this every storm so far. :) Maybe not Pete.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#340 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:04 pm

It's an eyewall(developing)

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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