ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Owasso]

70/997 for 11PM advisory. Peak kept at 110kts

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont know how to save it to post, but the MIMIC loop shows that the center reformed to the south some time here recently

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=18L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

[Owasso]

[Teban54]

70/997 for 11PM advisory. Peak kept at 110kts

110 kt peak is reasonable given that just about every model intensifies it to 105-110kt and not go further for days, the only difference between them being how fast it gets there. Of course Sam might have other ideas.

[Teban54]

I dont know how to save it to post, but the MIMIC loop shows that the center reformed to the south some time here recently

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=18L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

Here you go:

[aspen]

The NHC is probably a little too conservative with the intensity at 3-5 days out, which is fair — we don’t know exactly how Sam will react to the ~5 kt increase in shear. However, the HWRF and HMON do show a re-intensification phase after Sam’s intensity levels off for 24-48 hours, and it’s undergoing a RI/ERI phase that could bring it to Cat 4 intensity by Saturday. We’ll probably see its peak raised to 115-120 kt sometime tomorrow.

How much ACE would Sam produce by the end of the forecast period if it followed the NHC’s advisory exactly?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The NHC is probably a little too conservative with the intensity at 3-5 days out, which is fair — we don’t know exactly how Sam will react to the ~5 kt increase in shear. However, the HWRF and HMON do show a re-intensification phase after Sam’s intensity levels off for 24-48 hours, and it’s undergoing a RI/ERI phase that could bring it to Cat 4 intensity by Saturday. We’ll probably see its peak raised to 115-120 kt sometime tomorrow.

How much ACE would Sam produce by the end of the forecast period if it followed the NHC’s advisory exactly?

This looks to me like a storm that will have frequent EWRCs. They seem to either have lots or none at all, and the small size makes me think more than less since that will be the most efficient way for it to intensify and spread out the wind field.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Its amazing seeing the hot towers literally speed up before your eyes.

[grapealcoholic]

I dont know how to save it to post, but the MIMIC loop shows that the center reformed to the south some time here recently

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=18L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

I think that was always the main center and that low-mid level vort sort of merged with it

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1441233563458805777

[grapealcoholic]

The NHC is probably a little too conservative with the intensity at 3-5 days out, which is fair — we don’t know exactly how Sam will react to the ~5 kt increase in shear. However, the HWRF and HMON do show a re-intensification phase after Sam’s intensity levels off for 24-48 hours, and it’s undergoing a RI/ERI phase that could bring it to Cat 4 intensity by Saturday. We’ll probably see its peak raised to 115-120 kt sometime tomorrow.

How much ACE would Sam produce by the end of the forecast period if it followed the NHC’s advisory exactly?

If it can get to high Cat 4 by tomorrow night, maybe 30-40?

[Stormybajan]

The NHC is probably a little too conservative with the intensity at 3-5 days out, which is fair — we don’t know exactly how Sam will react to the ~5 kt increase in shear. However, the HWRF and HMON do show a re-intensification phase after Sam’s intensity levels off for 24-48 hours, and it’s undergoing a RI/ERI phase that could bring it to Cat 4 intensity by Saturday. We’ll probably see its peak raised to 115-120 kt sometime tomorrow.

How much ACE would Sam produce by the end of the forecast period if it followed the NHC’s advisory exactly?

If it can get to high Cat 4 by tomorrow night, maybe 30-40?

High end cat 4? lol NHC forecast calls for 105 mph tomorrow 8pm AST. Although a major by then cant be ruled out

[cycloneye]

This is important.

Partially due to an adjustment of the initial
position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a
bit from the previous forecast, and it lies just south of the TVCA
consensus aid--but not as far to the left as the previously
mentioned southern models.

[grapealcoholic]

The NHC is probably a little too conservative with the intensity at 3-5 days out, which is fair — we don’t know exactly how Sam will react to the ~5 kt increase in shear. However, the HWRF and HMON do show a re-intensification phase after Sam’s intensity levels off for 24-48 hours, and it’s undergoing a RI/ERI phase that could bring it to Cat 4 intensity by Saturday. We’ll probably see its peak raised to 115-120 kt sometime tomorrow.

How much ACE would Sam produce by the end of the forecast period if it followed the NHC’s advisory exactly?

If it can get to high Cat 4 by tomorrow night, maybe 30-40?

High end cat 4? lol NHC forecast calls for 105 mph tomorrow 8pm AST. Although a major by then cant be ruled out

SHIPS already gives it a 1/3 chance of getting to Cat 4 in 24 hours, and frankly I think that's an underestimate

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video on Sam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRiZhflDukg

[wxman57]

I think that the NHC day-5 track point may be about 1.5 deg too far north. Looking more like the center may just clip the far NE Caribbean islands. Their day-4 track point may be about a degree too far north. Not expecting a direct hit on PR, Luis. However, Anguilla and St. Martin/Sint Marteen are possibly in the direct path. It should be tracking NW as it passes.

[Blinhart]

Looks like Sam is exploding. Will likely be a major by midday tomorrow at this rate.

The ongoing spate of (E)RI will almost certainly contribute to eastward shifts in the guidance and allow Sam to miss the Leeward Islands, however narrowly. The strongest EPS and GEFS members have consistently taken Sam to the northeast of the Islands. Given that Sam is intensifying even more rapidly than either these or the intensity guidance indicated, the likelihood of an OTS trajectory increases tremendously. Ridging is not expected to be particularly strong, hence’s Sam relatively slow forward speed through D5. The only factor that will prevent Category-5 status at this point is the marginal thermodynamic environment, but otherwise all other indicators favour yet another powerful annular MH in D3–5. Expect Sam to be a stronger version of Larry.

I don't think that it is certain at all this is going out. The speed at which it is traveling is much more of an issue than how strong it is. If its a 70kt storm or a 120kt storm it is still going to follow the same steering. I think we need to pay very close attention as to whether this is hitting track forecast points and if it is off...which direction

They would not have the same steering, .

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1441251584466305030

[Teban54]

Is the massive band to the north stealing the show again? It has been firing convection nonstop in recent frames, while hot towers near the center have stopped.

[grapealcoholic]

Is the massive band to the north stealing the show again? It has been firing convection nonstop in recent frames, while hot towers near the center have stopped.

Just a pulse down I think