ATL: SAM - Models
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Great, so now every piece of land neighboring the open Atlantic has some reasons to be concerned about Sam.
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
The 12z GEFS has a relatively tight cluster (of strong members) for 186 hours out....
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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
. Ok. I was referring mainly to track- which didn’t change much.SFLcane wrote:otowntiger wrote:SFLcane wrote:12z Gfs weaker perhaps trending towards euro.
Looks very my much the same to me. GFS strongly OTS. Looks to still threaten Bermuda. If it shifted SW I can’t tell.
It is weaker days 1-4
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
This must be what the GFS wanted Sam to do
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MGC
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Until a high altitude recon mission is conducted and that data is incorporated into the models I place little faith in the models this far out.....MGC
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
The HWRF suggests that Tropical Storm Sam will become a 118.44-knot hurricane.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
CAT 4, 150 mph 954 MB Monster Hurricane, Higher Pressure than when Ida slammed into Louisiana earlier this year . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Iceresistance wrote::uarrow: CAT 4, 150 mph 954 MB Monster Hurricane, Higher Pressure than when Ida slammed into Louisiana earlier this year . . .
That is at the 700 MB level of the atmosphere winds at the surface are 135 MPH on that run would make much more sense considering the pressure.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
IcyTundra wrote:Iceresistance wrote::uarrow: CAT 4, 150 mph 954 MB Monster Hurricane, Higher Pressure than when Ida slammed into Louisiana earlier this year . . .
That is at the 700 MB level of the atmosphere winds at the surface are 135 MPH on that run would make much more sense considering the pressure.
Thanks, I did not see that
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Spacecoast
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skyline385
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ATL: SAM - Models
That's from the 0Z run
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
12Z Euro is E of the 0Z. Maybe better news for the bears? Let's see.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro is E of the 0Z. Maybe better news for the bears? Let's see.
It's slower so maybe.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
skyline385 wrote:Spacecoast wrote:
That's from the 0Z run, 12Z is running south of 0Z atm
atm....
Levi's point (from 2 hours ago) is still valid, which is taking the mean between the GFS / EC recent runs, or TVCN.
Seems reasonable to me.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Wow Euro lifts out the low immediately... and then drops another one.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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grapealcoholic
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grapealcoholic
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models
Jesus...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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