ATL: SAM - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#601 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:08 am

otowntiger wrote:
kevin wrote:The Euro saw the east trends and said "I'll do you one better" and trended even further west. A true war of the models.

https://i.imgur.com/ZR03bn5.png
looks ominous, but at that point it has already begun recurving. Even at this very westerly run it looks like it could even miss the Bahamas. I’m guessing the Euro will swing back east next run- the trough is going to be too stout.


Actually no. The Euro shows the mid level low becoming cutoff over the Tenn valley and 500 mb ridging expanding to the north and west of future Sam in the SW Atlantic. If the pattern held after 10 days, probably a SE US landfall (aka Hugo). Of course its one run, 10 days out, and will change. Something to watch.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#602 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:09 am

06z HWRF gets this to hurricane strength at +42 (Friday afternoon), 06z HMON at +51 (Saturday night/morning).
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#603 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:15 am

ronjon wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
kevin wrote:The Euro saw the east trends and said "I'll do you one better" and trended even further west. A true war of the models.

https://i.imgur.com/ZR03bn5.png
looks ominous, but at that point it has already begun recurving. Even at this very westerly run it looks like it could even miss the Bahamas. I’m guessing the Euro will swing back east next run- the trough is going to be too stout.


Actually no. The Euro shows the mid level low becoming cutoff over the Tenn valley and 500 mb ridging expanding to the north and west of future Sam in the SW Atlantic. If the pattern held after 10 days, probably a SE US landfall (aka Hugo). Of course its one run, 10 days out, and will change. Something to watch.

Yeah keeping a close eye on this, I just got all of my station almost completed and set up here in SC. Very interesting for a while it almost seemed the CMC was splitting the difference between the EURO/GFS, been really busy at work so I'm just catching back up on the last 24 hours
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#604 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:25 am

It seems like the HMON and HWRF are a little further SW than their 00z runs. Sam is still around 12.5-13.5N by the time it reaches 47-49W.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#605 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:37 am

Here are the trends for the 72 hour forecast of the high-res ECMWF and GFS (7 cycles of the ECMWF and 6 cycles of the GFS). Of note, both models are still trying to figure out the progression of the trough swooping down from Canada even at 72 hours but the ECMWF has been slightly more consistent. Also of note, the ECMWF has handled the remains of Odette more consistently than the GFS has over the past 2-3 days of model runs:

ECMWF
Image

GFS
Image

This creates a noticeable difference in the models at 96 hours. The GFS has a negatively tilted trough that cuts off and digs farther south off the NE CONUS into the Atlantic:
Image

Meanwhile, the ECMWF has a much shallower trough that is elongated from east to west and largely centered over SE Canada:
Image

In conjunction with the GFS having the remnants of Peter hanging around just to the NW of TD 18 for quite some time (whereas the ECMWF absorbs this into the mid-latitudes in 3-4 days), this equates to the GFS having the western extent of the tropical Atlantic ridge eroding and unable to build back in over TD 18.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#606 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:49 am

Image
00z Euro... 192-240 hrs... Looks like near Major miss to Bahamas/Florida, Mid Atlantic states??
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#607 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:52 am

06z HWRF has taken a massive shift to the SW, crossing 50W at just 13.0N. Unless it takes a sharp turn later on, this track would send Sam into the Leeward Islands.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#608 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:52 am

Image
Sam a mean hurricane on the EURO...
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#609 Postby blp » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:02 am

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#610 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:18 am

Intensity readout of 06z HWRF and HMON.

--- 06z HWRF ---
PEAK; +114hr; 953.8MB; 116.9KT; CAT4
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 16.3N; 54.3W; 125 miles southwest of 00z HWRF

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 1007 / 28
03 / 1008 / 38
06 / 1010 / 32
09 / 1010 / 31
12 / 1007 / 37
15 / 1008 / 34
18 / 1010 / 34
21 / 1009 / 35
24 / 1004 / 39
27 / 1002 / 48
30 / 1001 / 50
33 / 997 / 56
36 / 994 / 52
39 / 991 / 63
42 / 987 / 72 <- cat 1
45 / 982 / 78
48 / 980 / 73
51 / 980 / 72
54 / 980 / 74
57 / 978 / 85
60 / 975 / 81
63 / 972 / 84 <- cat 2
66 / 969 / 98 <- cat 3
69 / 965 / 105
72 / 959 / 109
75 / 959 / 108
78 / 960 / 107
81 / 960 / 110
84 / 958 / 106
87 / 957 / 113
90 / 958 / 106
93 / 959 / 107
96 / 958 / 110
99 / 957 / 109
102 / 957 / 105
105 / 956 / 104
108 / 955 / 105
111 / 954 / 110
114 / 954 / 117 <- cat 4
117 / 953 / 107
120 / 951 / 107
123 / 951 / 101
126 / 953 / 103

--- 06z HMON ---
PEAK; +120hr; 952.3MB; 111.6KT; CAT3
FINAL LOCATION; +120hr; 16.2N; 52.6W; 42 miles south of 00z HMON

Time / Pressure (mbar) / Wind (kt)
00 / 1007 / 29
03 / 1008 / 32
06 / 1008 / 36
09 / 1009 / 36
12 / 1006 / 36
15 / 1007 / 33
18 / 1008 / 33
21 / 1003 / 45
24 / 1003 / 38
27 / 1003 / 39
30 / 1002 / 42
33 / 1000 / 46
36 / 996 / 51
39 / 994 / 59
42 / 991 / 59
45 / 988 / 57
48 / 988 / 55
51 / 986 / 66 <- cat 1
54 / 984 / 73
57 / 983 / 63
60 / 982 / 69
63 / 978 / 79
66 / 975 / 77
69 / 973 / 83 <- cat 2
72 / 968 / 94
75 / 965 / 95
78 / 964 / 94
81 / 964 / 100 <- cat 3
84 / 962 / 96
87 / 960 / 109
90 / 959 / 105
93 / 958 / 106
96 / 957 / 102
99 / 957 / 105
102 / 957 / 106
105 / 956 / 106
108 / 955 / 98
111 / 956 / 99
114 / 956 / 99
117 / 955 / 108
120 / 952 / 112
123 / 951 / 110
126 / 952 / 106
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#611 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:21 am

Biggest difference I can see is intensity on the GFS vs Euro. GFS is nearly at hurricane status in 48 hours, Euro is still a TD.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#612 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:24 am

Image
06 GFS... Bermuda gets smacked, then OTS, but a decent E shift and the HP is building in stronger than previous runs...
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#613 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:26 am

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#614 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:30 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Biggest difference I can see is intensity on the GFS vs Euro. GFS is nearly at hurricane status in 48 hours, Euro is still a TD.

Image
48 Hours: GFS Cat 1/2 988 mb/ NHC 70 mph TS/ Euro TS
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#615 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:33 am

Blown Away wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Biggest difference I can see is intensity on the GFS vs Euro. GFS is nearly at hurricane status in 48 hours, Euro is still a TD.

https://i.imgur.com/8XLtSXk.jpg
48 Hours: GFS Cat 1/2 988 mb/ NHC 70 mph TS/ Euro TS


Yeah, and the Euro's the model we all know struggles with tropical cyclone intensity. Might be too weak.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#616 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:36 am

And here's the 06z HWRF track as well:

Image
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#617 Postby Cat5James » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:36 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Biggest difference I can see is intensity on the GFS vs Euro. GFS is nearly at hurricane status in 48 hours, Euro is still a TD.

https://i.imgur.com/8XLtSXk.jpg
48 Hours: GFS Cat 1/2 988 mb/ NHC 70 mph TS/ Euro TS


Yeah, and the Euro's the model we all know struggles with tropical cyclone intensity. Might be too weak.

And the GFS struggles with ridging… constantly having to adjust west with storms in all basins
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#618 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:38 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Biggest difference I can see is intensity on the GFS vs Euro. GFS is nearly at hurricane status in 48 hours, Euro is still a TD.


Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Samwise Gamgee is here

Code: Select all

Tropical Storm EIGHTEEN
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 23, 2021:

Location: 10.8°N 37.4°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 30 nm
34 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:


I guess the Euro short term intensity forecast won't pan out, we should have Sam at the next advisory ^
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#619 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:43 am

00z and 06z runs on the latest CDAS SST map.

00z Euro: black, 24-240 hrs
06z GFS: sky blue, 24-240 hrs
00z CMC: green, 24-240 hrs
00z ICON: navy blue, 24-180 hrs
HMON: white, 24-120 hrs
HWRF: yellow, 24-120 hrs

Image
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#620 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:53 am

Right now it looks like the Euro against the rest off the models. Seems unlikely the majority of the consensus would be wrong but stranger things have happened in the tropical world.
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