ATL: SAM - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#621 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:06 am

 https://twitter.com/nicklilja/status/1441005944104759296


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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#622 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:16 am


Image
HP building in behind Sam on 00z Euro from 7-10 days...
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#623 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:20 am

Blown Away wrote:

https://i.imgur.com/Qw0iCYT.gif
HP building in behind Sam on 00z Euro from 7-10 days...

That looks like an Outer Banks LF if that pattern were correct
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#624 Postby drezee » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:22 am

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1441029875855331349


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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#625 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:30 am

06z HWRF develops an anticyclone over Sam with outflow in all directions by Saturday morning, and it remains throughout the rest of the run.
Image
Image
Warm SSTs (up to 29.5C depending on how far SW it gets), ample atmospheric moisture, and low shear all combined with this fantastic UL setup will allow for Sam to undergo RI once it has a well-structured inner core. My guess is that it'll reach Cat 4 intensity between late Saturday and early Sunday.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#626 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:35 am

06z eps…

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#627 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:42 am


Wait hold on... is that further SW???
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#628 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:43 am



Yep .
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#629 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:44 am



The strongest members, which imo are more likely to verify, are further north than the other members. Nevertheless, this isn't a good trend.
Last edited by kevin on Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:47 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#630 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:45 am



Hard to do a side by side ... but relatively similar to 0z?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#631 Postby Stormybajan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:49 am


The reassuring thing is here is that most of those members which are on the southern end are very weak. Given Sam is a tropical storm at present AND with favourable conditions ahead of it I think the northern and stronger solutions should be the main area to watch. If the stronger ensembles start trending southward too then there will be a problem for sure
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#632 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:54 am

kevin wrote:


The strongest members, which imo are more likely to verify, are further north than the other members. Nevertheless, this isn't a good trend.


Kind of odd it's doing the old "stronger=north" thing when as was posted with that map earlier, a more southern track would send it through the warmest waters possible.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#633 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:58 am

Stormybajan wrote:

The reassuring thing is here is that most of those members which are on the southern end are very weak. Given Sam is a tropical storm at present AND with favourable conditions ahead of it I think the northern and stronger solutions should be the main area to watch. If the stronger ensembles start trending southward too then there will be a problem for sure

Pressure would need to be down 960-979 by Wednesday of next week. It's possible.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#634 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:00 am

The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#635 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:01 am

SFLcane wrote:The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.


Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#636 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:02 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.


Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?


He already posted it, it's #626
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#637 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:03 am

cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.


Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?


Hi Luis, it’s there on what I posted Just zoom you can see the mean mslp. It would probably move into the northern Caribbean
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#638 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:03 am

Iceresistance wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
SFLcane wrote:The mean on the 06z Eps looks like it would move into the Caribbean.


Hi Adrian. Do you have a graphic?


He already posted it, it's #626


Ok saw it. :D
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#639 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:05 am

Image
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#640 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:09 am

On the one hand the fact that the strongest and thus more realistic members are further north is reassuring. But on the other hand I'm afraid this could be one of those cases where the Euro is very good regarding track, but worse regarding intensity. It has happened many times in the past that the Euro almost perfectly nails a storm's path, but is way too conservative in terms of intensity. If that happens again here we could be looking at a very dangerous situation. For now it's only the Euro though, so I guess there's nothing we can do besides waiting for the next model cycle...
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