ATL: SAM - Models

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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#741 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:34 pm

Mildly interesting to note that (day 4-5) the 12z Euro actually shifted east of the 0z, which got almost to 74W before making the turn.
The (stronger) 12z only makes it to about 71W (E of Bahamas).
Last edited by Spacecoast on Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#742 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:38 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Teban54 wrote:It's crazy that 12z GFS and Euro, despite their completely different solutions, both end up threatening New England in the end. :double:

That's the problem, one or both of them is getting there by accident, we will see but I'm going with OTS until further notice.


What do you mean by accident?

You cant have two different tracks ending up in the same place and one of the tracks being correct so even though they end up in the same spot the one track is wrong and ended up there by accident.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#743 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:41 pm

With that shift east from 0z and the ensembles mostly out to sea, feeling quite a bit better it'll stay off the US this afternoon, I think the GFS and Euro will wind up somewhere in the middle, Bermuda probably should watch it.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#744 Postby Geauxtigers_2019_9 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:44 pm

Being from Louisiana very glad to know this thing won’t get to the gulf but the eastern side of the US should watch out. Major hurricanes like Ida are no bueno.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#745 Postby drezee » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:45 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#746 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:59 pm

Comparing the ECEN / GEFS 12z ensembles... starting to meet in the middle?
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#747 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:13 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Comparing the ECEN / GEFS 12z ensembles... starting to meet in the middle?
https://i.ibb.co/5LDPHjq/ecmdg.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/dBC5g03/ecmdh.jpg

Interestingly, fully four-fifths (80%) of the EPS and roughly half (~50%) of the GEFS members show Sam passing through Hebert Box #1.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#748 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:17 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:Comparing the ECEN / GEFS 12z ensembles... starting to meet in the middle?
https://i.ibb.co/5LDPHjq/ecmdg.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/dBC5g03/ecmdh.jpg

Interestingly, fully four-fifths (80%) of the EPS and roughly half (~50%) of the GEFS members show Sam passing through Hebert Box #1.


I don't put too much stock in the Hebert boxes. Andrew (THE quintessential South Florida hurricane of my lifetime, and still of the last 30 years) missed them, and Maria bullseyed #1 before blasting PR but missed the CONUS entirely.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#749 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:26 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Mildly interesting to note that (day 4-5) the 12z Euro actually shifted east of the 0z, which got almost to 74W before making the turn.
The (stronger) 12z only makes it to about 71W (E of Bahamas).

That is true, but then again this is so far out in time that the whole environment can change.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#750 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:27 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Comparing the ECEN / GEFS 12z ensembles... starting to meet in the middle?
https://i.ibb.co/5LDPHjq/ecmdg.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/dBC5g03/ecmdh.jpg

A blend of those would support a storm crossing 20N/60W, which would keep it in an area with MPIs of 915-930mb in the Days 3-6 range.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#751 Postby drezee » Thu Sep 23, 2021 3:31 pm

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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#752 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:21 pm

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:Well that’s not a comforting run for anyone in New England. Good thing the Euro is an outlier and not the center of a multi-model consensus track.

It's crazy that 12z GFS and Euro, despite their completely different solutions, both end up threatening New England in the end. :double:


I think that's very concerning if you ask me.

IF this plays out here is my guess on where future disagreements may lie:

The GFS will favor a more Northern New England hit whole the EURO would favor a more Southern hit, possibly getting as West as NJ/NY.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#753 Postby floridasun » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:21 pm

i think we better idea by weekend their fight between models their alot factor in play with high to north and trough coming off coast and speed of sam too by sunday we know what models will be right or close been right
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#754 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:53 pm

Just for grins...
Kitchen sink of spaghetti...
All operational(Euro / GFS/ CMC / HWFI/ HMON / NVGN / UK) + All Ensemble (EC(#52)/GEFS(#32)) + all consensus aide tracks (TVCN / TVCE / TVCX):
(white is consensus of everything)
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#755 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:30 pm

GFS still has a different solution though it puts the storm in a similar (but still well north) location as the Euro.

Image
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#756 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:42 pm

The new GFS model has body slammed the ECMWF all season. My money is on a fish recurve based on every model that uses the GFS base data and it's own performance this season.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#757 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:43 pm

Looks like landfall in Nova Scotia
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#758 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:53 pm

That's 2 GFS runs in a row with landfall in Nova Scotia. So much for harmless OTS.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#759 Postby RevanTheJedi96 » Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:59 pm

johngaltfla wrote:The new GFS model has body slammed the ECMWF all season. My money is on a fish recurve based on every model that uses the GFS base data and it's own performance this season.


That'd be nice but the GFS didn't present an OTS solution.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Models

#760 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:01 pm

HMON is at 957mb by Saturday morning.
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