Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 99L)

[CyclonicFury]

This is the tropical wave that the UKMET and ICON appear to be developing over the Caribbean, not the 0/20 currently marked by NHC. It has a broad vorticity signature already.

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis/Mark, I posted the ICON and Ukmet in the Global Models thread. Can you move them over into this thread please?


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[EquusStorm]

It stands out today more so than the African coast wave the NHC is interested in... the low latitude is definitely a concern if there's something that tries to get together here, shades of famous Caribbean cruisers past

[CaribJam]

The new 12z UKMET has something similar to the ICON in the Caribbean as well


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.0N 61.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.4N 63.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 15.1N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.8N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.3N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2020 17.0N 74.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


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Will a new thread be started, so we can track this potential system, given the model support mentioned above?

I have been watching it from earlier this week. There seems to be some spin. It is the time of year, especially this year, to watch and prepare for almost any TW that moves towards us.

[tiger_deF]

Jesus we've got to keep an eye on everything this season don't we

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS has been trending to a stronger vorticity signature with this wave starting with the 06z run today.

With how awful global models have been at predicting genesis in the Atlantic this year, and the time of year, this wave is worth watching.


From the latest TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 38W and 47W.

[CaribJam]

This is the tropical wave that the UKMET and ICON appear to be developing over the Caribbean, not the 0/20 currently marked by NHC. It has a broad vorticity signature already.

Thanks CyclonicFury.

I just suggested in the Global Model thread for this to be done so that we can track the TW.
Thumbs up...

[CyclonicFury]

12z CMC showing some weak development as well:

[CaribJam]

The GFS has been trending to a stronger vorticity signature with this wave starting with the 06z run today.

With how awful global models have been at predicting genesis in the Atlantic this year, and the time of year, this wave is worth watching.
https://i.imgur.com/B4iukbT.gif

From the latest TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 38W and 47W.

What is the ridge projected to be like for the next week or so? That may give an indication of the short to long term track of this system/TW.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Nothing in the modeling suggests a tc outbreak is looming. EPS is meh

Indeed but NHC still has a lemon out there in the 5 day

ICON, CMC and UKMet all develop the lemon, and they have been the only models that have detected genesis properly this season. All 3 show Caribbean cruiser

Yeah i believe cmc was one of the few that sniffed out a major in the gulf way back on the 7th or 8th and had it in the southern gulf around the 21st. Timing was a couple days off but ultimately they werent wrong about a major storm developing in the region

[SFLcane]

Meanwhile eps is way north of icon,uk,and cmc. north of the islands

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS does show some development in the Gulf.

[sma10]

The new 12z UKMET has something similar to the ICON in the Caribbean as well


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.0N 61.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.4N 63.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 15.1N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.8N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.3N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2020 17.0N 74.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


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Will a new thread be started, so we can track this potential system, given the model support mentioned above?

I have been watching it from earlier this week. There seems to be some spin. It is the time of year, especially this year, to watch and prepare for almost any TW that moves towards us.

I imagine we will have a thread soon
Already some nice spin and blowup of convection at 12N 42W

I think the NHC might possibly adjust the outlook graphic. It appears that development on the models is actually coming from a disturbance much further west than the yellow x indicates

[cycloneye]

Merged all the posts from the models thread to this one related to ICON and UKMET including the quotes.

[cycloneye]

Latest TWD:

A tropical wave axis is along 42W from 02N-17N with 1010 mb low
pressure along it near 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-10N
between 40W-52W and elsewhere from 09N-14N between 37W-43W.

[WeatherEmperor]

So far through 72hrs, the JMA also shows it going into the Caribbean




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[GCANE]

I saw this as well this morning.
12Z runs has GFS dissipating due to 19 knts of shear at 55W
CMC has an anticyclone over it during this time and keeps it going thru the Carib.
Looks promising.

[catskillfire51]

I see a storm in the BOC Wednesday, thats a different wave right? Trying to keep track.

[CyclonicFury]

10/30

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[toad strangler]

10/30

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Wait, the wave that's lemon'd on the NHC 5 day is still at 20W... new lemon?