Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON USAGI ADVISORY
2 PM JST... 0500Z... THU AUG 2 2007

...TYPHOON USAGI ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON KYUSHU...

AT 1 PM JST... 0400Z... THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 132.1 EAST... OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM
SOUTHEAST OF MIYAZAKI JAPAN... AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NOBEOKA JAPAN.

USAGI IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH... 30 KM/H...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USAGI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST OF KYUSHU EAST OF MIYAZAKI BY
6 PM JST... 0900Z.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH... 160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
USAGI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH AFTER LANDFALL.

30-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 MILES... 445 KM FROM THE CENTRE...
50-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 190 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 HPA... 28.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM JST POSITION... 31.4 N...132.1 E. MOVEMENT TOWARD
NORTH-NORTHWEST... NEAR 30 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
160 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 HPA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why do you think the nws is not offical? I think they are pro in know more then enough to have the respect.

[Chacor]

Why do you think the nws is not offical? I think they are pro in know more then enough to have the respect.

Uhm... NWS Guam stopped advisories long ago. Those are written by me using JMA data.

[Category 5]

Eyewall about to move ashore.

the erosion of the south side reminds me of Rita.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON USAGI ADVISORY
6 PM JST... 0900Z... THU AUG 2 2007

...TYPHOON USAGI MAKING LANDFALL NEAR NOBEOKA...

AT 5 PM JST... 0800Z... THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 131.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM
SOUTH OF HYUGA IN MIYAZAKI PROVINCE JAPAN... AND ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM SOUTH
OF NOBEOKA JAPAN.

USAGI IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 25 KM/H...
AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USAGI IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL AND WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
KYUSHU AND SOUTHWEST HONSHU IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. USAGI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.

30-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES... 405 KM FROM THE CENTRE...
50-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES... 170 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 HPA... 28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM JST POSITION... MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HYUGA/NOBEOKA.
MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH-NORTHWEST... NEAR 25 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 140 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 HPA.

[Derek Ortt]

maybe a different disclaimer should be written for the word form of JMA advisories since they only state the official information

[Chacor]

Downgraded.

WTPQ20 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0705 USAGI (0705) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 33.0N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 38.7N 134.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041200UTC 42.6N 143.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 051200UTC 46.5N 155.8E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[WindRunner]

And again . . .

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 35.2N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 40.0N 136.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 041800UTC 43.3N 145.2E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 051800UTC 47.9N 158.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. However, it is written using official WMO RSMC information. The post is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM USAGI ADVISORY
11 PM JST... 1400Z... FRI AUG 3 2007

...TROPICAL STORM USAGI MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS HOKKAIDO...

AT 10 PM JST... 1300Z... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM USAGI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 135.3 EAST... OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 190 KM
NORTHWEST OF WAJIMA IN ISHIKAWA PROVINCE JAPAN... AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM NORTHWEST OF TOKYO JAPAN.

USAGI IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH... 34 KM/H... AND A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... USAGI SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
ON VERY NORTHERN HONSHU... OR VERY SOUTHERN HOKKAIDO... BY 3 PM JST TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. USAGI IS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND SHOULD WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

30-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... 375 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA... 29.36 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM JST POSITION... 38.5 N 135.3 E. MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH-
NORTHWEST... NEAR 35 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 994 HPA.

[Chacor]

TS 0705 (USAGI)
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 4 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 40.7N 139.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 45.2N 152.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[Chacor]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. However, it is written using official WMO RSMC information. The post is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM USAGI ADVISORY
2 PM JST... 0500Z... SAT AUG 4 2007

...NEARLY-EXTRATROPICAL USAGI MAKES LANDFALL ON EXTREME NORTHERN HONSHU...

AT 1 PM JST... 0400Z... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM USAGI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 140.5 EAST... OVER THE TSUGARU
PENINSULA ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM NORTHWEST OF AOMORI JAPAN... AND
ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPPORO JAPAN.

USAGI IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH... 41 KM/H...
AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
USAGI... IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN HONSHU AND SOUTHERN
HOKKAIDO... WITH ANOTHER LANDFALL ON EASTERN HOKKAIDO IN ABOUT 4 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. USAGI IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN 12 HOURS NEAR THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA OF RUSSIA.

30-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 275 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA... 29.42 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM JST POSITION... OVER TSUGARU PENINSULA NEAR 41.1N 140.5E.
MOVEMENT TOWARD EAST-NORTHEAST... NEAR 41 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 HPA.

[Coredesat]

WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 41.3N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 46.4N 153.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

LOW
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 4 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 0705 USAGI (0705)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 42N 145E
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 1000HPA

Finally gone!

———————————————————————————————

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. However, it is written using official WMO RSMC information. The post is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JMA and JTWC products.

BULLETIN
DEVELOPING LOW EX-USAGI ADVISORY
10 PM JST... 1300Z... SAT AUG 4 2007
CORRECTED 11 AM JST... 0200Z... SUN AUG 5 2007

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE WINDSPEEDS... NOT GIVEN BY JMA...

...USAGI COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...

AT 9 PM JST... 1200Z... THE CENTRE OF DEVELOPING LOW EX-USAGI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42 NORTH... LONGITUDE 145 EAST... OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN
EAST OF HOKKAIDO.

EX-USAGI IS SPEEDING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/H...
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED.

USAGI HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A FULLY-EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND THE
JMA HAS ISSUED ITS FINAL ADVISORY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA... 29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 9 PM JST POSITION... EAST OF HOKKAIDO ISLAND NEAR 42N 141E.
MOVEMENT TOWARD EAST-NORTHEAST... NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
1000 HPA.

THE JMA HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON USAGI.