BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[wxmann_91]

The fact that they are calling this a Cat 1 is a complete joke. This is clearly a major right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical cyclone Sidr
forecast 3#
12pm pst/3pm pst
11-12-2007
Unoffical

...Sidr explodes to 120 knot monster over the indian ocean....VERY POWERFUL AND DEADLY CYCLONE MUST BE WATCHED...


Tropical cyclone Sidr over the last 6 hour has exploded, with the eye pin hole like on satellite, and also data out of 85h showing a truely all around good eye. Cimss,Sab t numbers shows that the cyclone is at 6.0t. This was a few hours ago, and this system has improved; so the winds are set at 120 knots for this forecast. Forecasting tropical cyclones is very very hard, in Sidr shown just how hard it is. With the upper level enviroment expected to remain in place. We expect Sidr, to strengthen to 130 knots over the next 12-24 hours, with some chance of going to 135-140 knots. We do expect around the 36 hour time frame that the cyclone will be heading north into slightly cooler tchp. So overall development and EWRC will likely slow the development of the cyclone.


A trough over central India is pushing eastward. This trough is expected to pic Sidr up, and slowly moving it northward to maybe northwestward, over the next 36-48 hours.

Forecast
0 120 knots 11.6/90
6 125 knots 11.9/89.8
12 130 knots 12.3/89.4
24 130 knots 12.9/88.7
36 130 knots 13.8/88.2

[Derek Ortt]

NRL now has it at 105KT

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 NOV 2007 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 11:37:02 N Lon : 90:00:44 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 924.4mb/117.4kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -26.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Cyclenall]

Forecasting tropical cyclones is very very hard, in Sidr shown just how hard it is.

I'm not surprised it's pretty much a CAT4 cyclone already. More often then not, storms in the Indian basin strengthen rapidly once they get going. There was no doubt on this one. It's just that forecasters and people don't want to be too liberal.

NRL now has it at 105KT
NRL now has it at 105KT

That's more like it, but that was 4 hours ago . It's now around 115-120 knots IMO.

[wxmann_91]

some images...

latest microwave image shows ERC may be beginning:

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9987 ... poshk9.jpg


soundings on the continent show some dry air, so that may help weaken the system once it gets closer to the mainland.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6885 ... ewtdq3.gif


A big factor regarding the storm's track will be how strong and deep the trough is. The ECM has a stronger trough while other models seem to build the ridge back.

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2930/mm72w500ms0.gif

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1151 ... z72up3.gif

[RL3AO]

Wow. Sidr has really bombed today. I hope wind shear or anything can tear this apart.

[Derek Ortt]

WTIO31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102121Z NOV 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIDR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.3N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.3N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.3N 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.2N 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (SIDR) LOCATED 760 NM SOUTH OF
CALCUTTA, INDIA HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 121648Z
TRMM IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEVELOPED CDO WITH A BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN 11 NM ROUND EYE.
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
HOWEVER, EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY (1119289Z AMSR-E IMAGE)
INDICATED A MICROWAVE EYE AND CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT WAS
STRONGER THAN THE 45-55 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION IS BASED
ON EYE FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 06B IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
EAST TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS. THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE ECMWF NORTHWARD TRACK
DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM TOO RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 36 AND DRIVING THE WEAKER SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN


only issuing 12 hour warnings and 48 hour forecasts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cimss shows 6.3-6.5t so around 123-125 knots. Also latest 85h shows a thick eyewall, so winds increased to 125 knots.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

After looking over the information posted in this thread, I agree with many of you that Sidr is likely a category 4 system. I have been reading the dvorak and pressure and t rating information on this thread.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

why are they saying category 1 when it is likely a 3 or 4? or is that an old
advisory?

[Derek Ortt]

The incompetent meteorological department (idiotic also fits the bill), still insists that this is a 55KT tropical storm

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

[RL3AO]

"ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA."

On what? Venus?

[Cyclone1]

If this is a 992mbar, 55kt system, I am officially the new Queen of Zimbabwe.

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe they're just getting around to last night's advisories. Someone should tell them to skip ahead and do the current ones.

[P.K.]

Latest sat fixes are still T4.0 from DEMS, T5.5 from PGTW and T6.0 from KNES.



TPIO10 PGTW 122105

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIDR)

B. 12/2030Z

C. 11.7N/9

D. 89.9E/6

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (12/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN.

GEIS

-------

WWIO20 KNES 122228

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRNIGHT
.
NOVEMBER 12 2007 2030Z
.
11.7N 89.9E T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS SIDR (06B)
.
PAST POSITIONS...10.8N 90.3E 12/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
10.3N 91.1E 11/2030Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG INCREASES THE CENTER WHICH IS
SURROUNDED BY WHITE TO A DT=6.5 WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE MET. PT IS
ALSO 6.5 BUT WILL CONSTRAIN FT TO A 6.0 AT THIS FIX.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 13/0400Z.
.
EFFECTIVE 0000 UTC 01 DECEMBER 2007 THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN
WILL CHANGE TO CONFORM WITH THAT FOUND IN TPPS10 PGTW. FOR
DETAILS SEE HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/NEWFORMAT.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
BALDWIN

[cycloneye]

SSD has it at 6.0/6.0.

12/2030 UTC 11.7N 90.0E T6.0/6.0 SIDR -- Bay of Bengal

[Squarethecircle]

105 from JTWC, forecast peak of 125 knots, and heading straight for Bangladesh. If only we could control TCs... Sigh... The eye is back in full form now, shrinking, this thing is still deepening, likely category 4, will probably be that by JTWC at 11, conditions good enough to stabilize if it reaches that strength. This could be bad, although it has a good chance of weakening before landfall, and storms with pinholes can be very unpredictable, at least in terms of intensity.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If this is a 992mbar, 55kt system, I am officially the new Queen of Zimbabwe.

I bow to you, your Majesty

Yea this is not 55 knots...whoever wrote that must be on crack.

[Squarethecircle]

If this is a 992mbar, 55kt system, I am officially the new Queen of Zimbabwe.

I bow to you, your Majesty

Yea this is not 55 knots...whoever wrote that must be on crack.

Not must be, IS.