BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[CrazyC83]

Talk about rapid intensification!!! Headed for Bangladesh - this could be catastrophic.

[Cyclenall]

Not must be, IS.

Isn't the words "must" and "is" basically the same in this context? I think they just have their eyes closed.

[CrazyC83]

If this is a 992mbar, 55kt system, I am officially the new Queen of Zimbabwe.

I bow to you, your Majesty

Yea this is not 55 knots...whoever wrote that must be on crack.

I guess whoever is working at the IMD right now doesn't know much about the tropics...I'd say the pressure is around 930mb with winds of about 110-120 kt.

[Squarethecircle]

Talk about rapid intensification!!! Headed for Bangladesh - this could be catastrophic.

Not must be, IS.

Isn't the words "must" and "is" basically the same in this context? I think they just have their eyes closed.

'Must be' implies an inference perceived to be correct, 'is' implies a known fact. And since 'must be' and 'is' are, together, a multiple, it's aren't, not isn't. But really, I don't care. I isn't paying that much attention.

IMD is really lagging on this, 4.5 in 24 hours?! At least JTWC has the dignity to lag by only 10 knots or so. I don't have access to a low and high-pressure map, or a model displaying such, so can anyone tell me the situation on that?

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Oh my god... Stadium effect, most likely, pinhole eye, strong convection near the center... Scary...

[CrazyC83]

105 from JTWC, forecast peak of 125 knots, and heading straight for Bangladesh. If only we could control TCs... Sigh... The eye is back in full form now, shrinking, this thing is still deepening, likely category 4, will probably be that by JTWC at 11, conditions good enough to stabilize if it reaches that strength. This could be bad, although it has a good chance of weakening before landfall, and storms with pinholes can be very unpredictable, at least in terms of intensity.

The northern Bay of Bengal coast resembles the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in that it is VERY prone to storm surge. If the storm enlarges, the strom surge could resemble that of Katrina and Rita.

[Squarethecircle]

That, in conjunction with the population density and poor reaction to TCs, is probably why the deaths have been so high in that area. Actually, now that you think about it, even if it weakened, it still would have that huge storm surge, so it probably wouldn't be too much of a relief...

[CrazyC83]

That, in conjunction with the population density and poor reaction to TCs, is probably why the deaths have been so high in that area. Actually, now that you think about it, even if it weakened, it still would have that huge storm surge, so it probably wouldn't be too much of a relief...

Plus any eyewall cycles would greatly enlarge its size, which would spread it out over a larger area...there are over 135 million people in Bangladesh which is only slightly larger than Louisiana and much smaller than the area affected by hurricane-force winds in Katrina...

[P.K.]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12-11-2007

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER, 2007.

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 12TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 11.50 N AND LONG 90.00 E, ABOUT 300 KM WEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333 ).

CURRENT INTENSITY: T4.0 RPT T4.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED 65-75 KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTNESE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA.

SEA CONDITION: VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.


24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY: T5.0 RPT T5.0.

[Derek Ortt]

someone needs to tell them they need to break Dvorak constraints. I think I know why they are screwing this up royally. They are not breaking the constraint of .5 increase in T number over a 6 hour period

[HURAKAN]

The 15 most populous nations

Code: Select all

China: 1.32 billion (about 20% of world population)
India: 1.12 billion (about 17%)
United States: 300 million (about 4.6%)
Indonesia: 225 million (about 3.5%)
Brazil: 186 million (about 2.8%)
Pakistan: 165 million (about 2.5%)
Bangladesh: 147 million (about 2.3%)
Russia: 143 million (about 2.2%)
Nigeria: 135 million (about 2.1%)
Japan: 128 million (about 2.0%)
Mexico: 108 million (about 1.7%)
Philippines: 86 million (about 1.3%)
Vietnam: 84 million (about 1.3%)
Germany: 82 million (about 1.3%)
Egypt: 75 million (about 1.2%)
Ethiopia: 75 million (about 1.2%)
Turkey: 73 million (about 1.2%) 

Approximately 4.4 billion people live in these 17 countries, representing roughly two-thirds of the world's population. If added together, all nations in the European Union, with 494 million people - about 7.3% of world's population in 2006 - would be third in the list above.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

[P.K.]

someone needs to tell them they need to break Dvorak constraints. I think I know why they are screwing this up royally. They are not breaking the constraint of .5 increase in T number over a 6 hour period

The latest image shows it as a T4.5 up on the T4.0 in the advisory I just posted so yes it looks like it is going up at that rate.

[Coredesat]

someone needs to tell them they need to break Dvorak constraints. I think I know why they are screwing this up royally. They are not breaking the constraint of .5 increase in T number over a 6 hour period

Aside from Gonu, I don't recall a case where they actually did break the constraints.

I also don't understand why the models aren't acknowledging increased wind shear not far to the northwest of Sidr. It appears to be an upper trough, and the models also don't acknowledge that and don't account for it. The models unanimously take the system into Orissa and/or Andhra Pradesh with strengthening or little change in intensity (but no weakening):




Ignore the AFWI (AFWA MM5 global model); it is on crack. ST10 and ST11 (STIPS: WPAC version of SHIPS) have been spot-on with the system so far.

[Derek Ortt]

the models have a distinct west bias

As was the case with Noel, a lot of the shear is due to the outflow of the storm. The models are overdoing the shear and are moving a rapidly weakening vortex to the west.

A track closer to Calcutta and Bangladesh is more likely

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is looking very intense on those pictures hurakan.

[HurricaneRobert]

How many years have had two category 5s in the northern Indian Ocean?

[HURAKAN]

It seems to be going through an EWRC.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be going through an EWRC.

Not a good thing as that will just enlarge the wind field, putting more people into the hurricane-force winds and high storm surge. Notice NRL now showing 110 kt and 941mb, which seems a lot more realistic.

[CrazyC83]

Current pressure and wind estimates:

IMD - 986mb/65 kt (official)
NRL - 941mb/110 kt
CIMSS - 919mb/120 kt

Personally, I think the 941 is closest to being accurate. (My guess is they'd find it around 935mb if a Hurricane Hunter was flown into it) As for the winds, my guess is 110 kt.