Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[MiamiensisWx]

I think Flossie's organization has been improving - look at the expansion of low-level inflow and the structural "stacking" effect. Current shortwave imagery reveals persistent convective bursts over the center. A weak upper low to the west appears to be moving in tandem with Flossie, so southwesterly mid-level shear should remain marginal over the next 24 hours. The main issue regards the stratocumulus field (stable mid-level environment) to the north of the cyclone. That factor could hurt the system over the long term, but I would not be surprised if Flossie briefly approaches 60 kts (70 mph). I would expect lower oceanic heat content and an increasingly unfavorable upper-air environment, but I think Flossie could make a run toward hurricane status before it reaches 48 hours (the "dividing line" between conducive and hostile conditions).

I'll add another comment: microwave imagery indicates Flossie has been intensifying - I agree with Derek. The TPC likely will increase its intensity at the next advisory.

[Derek Ortt]

looking at the sats and microwave... it may already be at 50KT

[Cyclenall]

looking at the sats and microwave... it may already be at 50KT

I have found that the convection is deepening while the impressive organization is slowly further organizing. I thought 45 knots but 50 knots sounds good .

EDIT: Another thing I wanted to add was this system has been very symmetrical over the past 8 hours for a 35-knot TS...if it is still that which I doubt. As of 3:20 am EST, I believe it's 45 knots if not higher.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR
IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS
WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
FLOSSIE COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGY. BEYOND
3 DAYS...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS RESULTING
IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP FLOSSY MOVING ON A GENERAL STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL
MODEL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.2N 129.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 13.3N 131.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 13.3N 133.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 14.5N 146.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 150.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

A break in the clouds or Flossie's own eye!!!

[WindRunner]

Models initialized at 45kts/997mb, so apparently they don't think so. Of course, it doesn't mean that they couldn't raise the advisory intensity between now and issuance time . . .

[HURAKAN]

REALLY APPEARS TO BE AN EYE!!!

[Derek Ortt]

an FYI,

I issued a 15Z forecast on Flossie... also went with 45KT grudgingly. Made a thread in AF regarding forecast #1

[HURAKAN]

It seemed to have been a very nice elaborated break in the clouds!!! or maybe the eye was trying to develop.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 091445
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 130.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 130.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.9N 132.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.3N 137.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 130.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTPZ44 KNHC 091445
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2007

ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FLOSSIE HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A
SEPARATE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER.
GOOD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE EAST. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 KT...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.

FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 27C-PLUS WATERS FOR ABOUT 48
HOURS. GIVEN THE PRESENT BANDING STRUCTURE AND GOOD OUTFLOW...
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL
MODELS ALL FORECAST FLOSSIE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER 48
HOURS...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DECREASE BUT NOT
RAPIDLY...AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
COULD PERSIST EVEN AFTER SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THIS ARGUES FOR A
RELATIVE SLOW WEAKENING TREND DURING DAYS 3-5.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 265/12. FLOSSIE IS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH
RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM INTERACTING
MUCH WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W. MODEL
GUIDANCE OFFERS TWO BASIC SCENARIOS. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS
MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE IN
A DAY OR TWO AND TAKE IT MORE RAPIDLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ASSUMING FLOSSIE DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED...THE FORMER SCENARIO
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.0N 130.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 12.9N 132.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 13.3N 137.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 14.0N 143.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 15.0N 147.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 16.0N 151.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneRobert]

I don't see an eye yet, but this storm still looks shakey.

GFDL has it as a Category 1 about 200 miles from Hawaii, although NHC has adjusted the track further south.

[Cyclenall]

After appearing to be strong early this morning, during the late morning hours the convection did decrease quite a bit and went through that whole game yet again were all used to . They did however keep it at 45 knots and call for a hurricane out of it which I agree on however if Flossie does something else, hurricane strength chance will slip away .

Within the past 2 hours or so though, I'm finding Flossie going back to symmetrical organization (it's strengthening?) with deeper convection.

@ HURAKAN I believe that's a break in the clouds, Flossie has had the break in the clouds pattern within the last 15 hours. I need some other data to figure out if a eye wall is forming or not. I'd watch this afternoon for something to try and wrap around.

The GFDL model is still showing a hurricane and it heading right for the big island of Hawaii as a TS.

I had a dream last night that TS Flossie was ragged looking on satellite images during a loop . I have no idea how you can dream about Epac tropical cyclones, it's so sad.

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Second % chance of Tropical Storm Flossie becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 74%
Category 2 Hurricane: 55%
Category 3 Hurricane: 25%
Category 4 Hurricane: 5%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1% ~ (Mostly unknown due the the fact this could cross into the Cpac and then go the "Ioke way" by small chance since it's August and that time of year)

[clfenwi]

Looking at the visible loop, looks like it started intensifying again at around 14Z. SSD's estimate is up to 55 knots, but it seems that TAFB went lower as the models were initialized at only 50 knots.

09/1800 UTC 12.8N 131.7W T3.5/3.5 FLOSSIE -- East Pacific Ocean

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC THU AUG 9 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070809 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070809  1800   070810  0600   070810  1800   070811  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N 131.8W   12.7N 134.1W   12.7N 136.2W   12.7N 138.1W
BAMD    12.8N 131.8W   12.6N 134.6W   12.5N 137.4W   12.5N 140.3W
BAMM    12.8N 131.8W   12.7N 134.4W   12.7N 137.0W   12.6N 139.4W
LBAR    12.8N 131.8W   13.1N 134.4W   14.1N 137.1W   15.0N 139.9W
SHIP        50KTS          56KTS          63KTS          65KTS
DSHP        50KTS          56KTS          63KTS          65KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070811  1800   070812  1800   070813  1800   070814  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N 139.9W   12.6N 143.6W   13.7N 148.2W   15.4N 152.7W
BAMD    12.5N 143.0W   12.3N 148.4W   13.3N 153.7W   15.7N 158.4W
BAMM    12.4N 141.7W   12.0N 146.1W   12.4N 150.5W   13.5N 155.2W
LBAR    15.9N 142.3W   17.2N 146.2W   17.9N 149.0W   16.3N 150.3W
SHIP        66KTS          58KTS          58KTS          54KTS
DSHP        66KTS          58KTS          58KTS          54KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR = 131.8W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  13.1N LONM12 = 129.1W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  13.5N LONM24 = 126.5W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS =  995MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  45NM

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2007

THE ORGANIZATION OF FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A FORMATIVE
EYE APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 KT...AND A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE CLOSE
TO OR JUST BELOW THE CONCURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
CONSEQUENTLY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/13...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. FLOSSIE
WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION A
BIT...BUT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF FLOSSIE IS UNLIKELY TO INTERACT
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS WEAKNESS. AFTER THAT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH HAS
SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. AN ALTERNATIVE
TRACK...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH...IS OFFERED BY THE
NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND FSSE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST BUT LOOKS GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL REMAIN ABOVE 27C
FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW PATTERN DOES NOT
SEEM IDEAL...HOWEVER...WITH A STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE AND THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
SEEMINGLY RUNNING AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MOST...BUT NOT ALL THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MAKES FLOSSIE A HURRICANE. AFTER 48
HOURS...COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. HOW FAST
FLOSSIE DECLINES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
GOVERNED BY THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE VERY
DIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
HAVE MUCH HIGHER SHEAR. IT'S DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH SCENARIO WILL
VERIFY...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT CONSERVATIVELY
ASSUMES THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BECOME VERY HOSTILE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 12.8N 132.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 12.8N 134.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.0N 136.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 13.3N 138.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 13.6N 140.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 153.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


ROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 132.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 132.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 131.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.0N 136.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.3N 138.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.6N 140.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 153.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 132.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Coredesat]

Convection is quite shallow, but Flossie looks good right now:

[Cyclenall]

I believe that's a break in the clouds, Flossie has had the break in the clouds pattern within the last 15 hours. I need some other data to figure out if a eye wall is forming or not. I'd watch this afternoon for something to try and wrap around.

I was right in my suspecting of the wrap effect. This afternoon, Flossie has been trying to develop an eyewall and possible eye where the center is, confirming that the cloud break was in fact not an eye. Current strength I'd peg at 55 knots.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 12.8N 132.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 12.8N 134.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.0N 136.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 13.3N 138.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 13.6N 140.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 153.0W 45 KT

I doubt it's only going to be 60 knots by 12 hours, I'd predict 65-70 knots.

[Brent]

Looks beautiful. I'm jealous. All we get are sorry looking wimps or short-lived storms.

[HURAKAN]

Eye trying to develop.

[Category 5]

It looks like an eye to me.

[Derek Ortt]

eye is very well defined on all microwave imagery

very close to cane status