INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[GeneratorPower]

No storm has ever followed the CLIPPER. Not one. It's the average. This time of year the STANDARD DEVIATION can be insane, which means the average still holds but individual storms are WAY outside the normal envelope.

Use climo, just don'f forget SD because it's critical.

[Sanibel]

Looks like another dry Ingrid.

[ROCK]

dont know if this Scat has been posted or not....looks alomst closed to me....but thats just me...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_4.html

[Sanibel]

There's obviously something there. Quickscat is missing it.

[perk]

Rock your post is right on the money. I also believe in climotology to a certain extent, i just don't think it flips the switch the same time every year.

[fci]

I would only concern myself with the Islands on this one.

I think we should have learned our lesson already in 2007 with trying to extrapolate where these will ultimately end up.

A GOM'er, Florida LOOK OUT.......
The only thing we really know about 97L is that if it strengthens; The Islands are of concern.

I'll sit back and see where the Pro Mets and NHC see this in 5-7 days and start to conject then!

Good luck Islands; hope all it brings is some rain.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like some high shear once it passes through the islands

also, the convection has really died out this mroning; therefore, I do not see this as having that much chance at developing... but the one south of the CV islands has a good chance to do something

[LarryWx]

I feel that IF 97L goes ahead and develops, it would have the best potential for, say, a hurricane hit on the CONUS of all of the current invests. The Gulf system probably has the best potential for something at least MINOR due to its location...a near gimme to hit the CONUS at least as a low of some kind even if not even a TD. 96L is simply too far away to have more than a small chance of reaching the CONUS, especially given the time of year. I'm giving it no more than ~10%. However, 97L is both close enough to the CONUS to be considered by me to be in a fairly favorable location for a potential CONUS hit considering a combo of the time of year based on history, the progged path for the next few days, and the very important progged pattern in about 7-10 days but also just far enough to have a pretty good chance to eventually become a hurricane (perhaps even major).

Even if 97L didn't exist or if it ends up not developing, the progged pattern on the model consensus for the 7-10 day period (pretty strong and persistent upper level ridging in the E US as well as persistent surface high over the NE US...both similar to the pattern that allowed TD 10 to hit the US) is one that could easily support a threat to the SE US coast or US Gulf coast during that period (probably aided somewhat by the fact that we're not in an El Nino). So, even if 97L didn't exist, I would already be a good bit more interested than average in the few days surrounding 10/1 for the potential for a SE US or US Gulf coast threat.

[LarryWx]

This one looks like a No Go IMO...One behind is right on its heels..

I'm not sure of the system to which you're referring that is right behind it. You wouldn't by any chance be talking about 96L? If you are referring to 96L, I don't agree that they are close at all.

[Derek Ortt]

the shear may be just a bit too high to allow for this to hit the CONUS

[Gustywind]

I would only concern myself with the Islands on this one.

I think we should have learned our lesson already in 2007 with trying to extrapolate where these will ultimately end up.

A GOM'er, Florida LOOK OUT.......
The only thing we really know about 97L is that if it strengthens; The Islands are of concern.

I'll sit back and see where the Pro Mets and NHC see this in 5-7 days and start to conject then!

Good luck Islands; hope all it brings is some rain.

Tkanks a lot Fci i appreciate ... we continue to monitor closely this system hoping only rain...but we dont' know really what will happen for the moment, we will see what pan's out maybe some alerts will be put tommorow in relation with the system if if this trend continues.... something to watch for us

[CrazyC83]

The worst of the Invests IMO, I don't see much out of this.

[HURAKAN]

210
ABNT20 KNHC 231510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION...
AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.


FORECASTER PASCH

[RL3AO]

[CourierPR]

Amid the "looks good,looks bad" posts, along with the typical parochial comments, I'll go with what the NHC is saying. This system isn't even a depression , but I fully expect the "this has Texas, Louisiana, or West Florida written all over it" posts to begin at any time.

[Gustywind]

Amid the "looks good,looks bad" posts, along with the typical parochial comments, I'll go with what the NHC is saying. This system isn't even a depression , but I fully expect the "this has Texas, Louisiana, or West Florida written all over it" posts to begin at any time.

Absolutely CourierPR, but seems first that troubles ahead for us in the islands maybe some alerts down the road tommorow, not good news...

[CourierPR]

Amid the "looks good,looks bad" posts, along with the typical parochial comments, I'll go with what the NHC is saying. This system isn't even a depression , but I fully expect the "this has Texas, Louisiana, or West Florida written all over it" posts to begin at any time.

Absolutely CourierPR, but seems first that troubles ahead for us in the islands maybe some alerts down the road tommorow, not good news...

Gustywind, I fully agree. Remain vigilant.

[Gustywind]

Amid the "looks good,looks bad" posts, along with the typical parochial comments, I'll go with what the NHC is saying. This system isn't even a depression , but I fully expect the "this has Texas, Louisiana, or West Florida written all over it" posts to begin at any time.

Absolutely CourierPR, but seems first that troubles ahead for us in the islands maybe some alerts down the road tommorow, not good news...

Gustywind, I fully agree. Remain vigilant.

Tkanks a lot , i really appreciated this friendly link...nhc seems very confident on this...hope if this happen nothing more than a TD but maybe more given the lastets runs TS ouchhh, seems that's a Carib season this year amazing , but once again tkanks a lot i will keep you informed if there's something serious in the next couple of days!

[wxman57]

looks like some high shear once it passes through the islands

also, the convection has really died out this morning; therefore, I do not see this as having that much chance at developing... but the one south of the CV islands has a good chance to do something

I can see the upper trof/low over the eastern Caribbean on WV imagery. But the GFS moves the low out and builds a quite large ridge over the eastern Caribbean by Tuesday. Could be favorable for development by then.

[MortisFL]

I think I'd go with NHC on their prediction.