EX INVEST 94L Thread

[jlauderdal]

Ok, here is a sense of reality for you folks out there. Look at what the GFS sees at 384 hours out. You KNOW you are in trouble when you see an upper level pattern such as this. Its been a pleasure knowing everyone. Maybe next year will be a better year in terms of overall activity. Ok, for some of you this was a great season. But for those of us in the research community, this season has been anything BUT active. See ya in 2008.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

sense of reality and gfs at 384h should never ever be used together, enjoy your winter and we won't expect to see any posts from you until next season since you are declaring it over.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
18N84W...ANALYZED 1003 MB AT 12Z. THIS LOW SITS ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT RUNS ENE FROM THE LOW TOWARD CUBA NEAR 20N78W AND
WNW OF THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W. SYNOPTIC
24-HOUR PRESSURE TENDENCIES ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT DEEPENING
SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...1 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING. A
1130Z QUIKSCAT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STEADY WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
77W-88W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY

[cycloneye]

08/1745 UTC 18.0N 86.1W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Frank2]

Per the two replies to the earlier post, some might disagree, but, I've written press releases before (not for NOAA, but, for another agency), and, know that the intent of one is to inform the public of future events - in the case of the NOAA press release, my first impression was that forecasters were predicting an active hurricane season over the next 3 months - which would have meant November and December.

So, for myself (and, I'll guess to say many others) it would be incorrect to think this would happen, since most know (whether we like to or not) that the season usually does not extend beyond October - even during a La Nina event, so, yes, my facts are straight (having worked for NOAA, I hope so), when I say that perhaps they should have explained that, while the La Nina was forecast to extend that far into the latter part of the year, due to seasonal changes, the affect of this would likely be less than if it had happened in mid-season - that would have made more sense, than just to say it would occur over the next 3 months...

Perhaps they did not mention that fact to avoid having the situation minimized to the point that the entire issue would ignored, and, I understand that, but, to me, this probably did cause confusion, both in the media and the public...

Frank

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 081838
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC MON OCT 8 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071008 1800 071009 0600 071009 1800 071010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 86.0W 18.4N 87.1W 18.8N 88.4W 19.0N 89.8W
BAMD 18.0N 86.0W 18.5N 87.0W 18.8N 88.1W 19.0N 89.3W
BAMM 18.0N 86.0W 18.5N 87.1W 18.9N 88.2W 19.1N 89.5W
LBAR 18.0N 86.0W 18.5N 87.2W 19.6N 88.5W 20.8N 89.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071010 1800 071011 1800 071012 1800 071013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 91.0W 18.2N 93.1W 16.7N 95.1W 15.7N 97.1W
BAMD 19.1N 90.4W 19.3N 92.4W 19.2N 94.0W 19.2N 95.9W
BAMM 19.1N 90.7W 18.9N 92.8W 17.9N 95.0W 17.0N 97.7W
LBAR 22.1N 90.3W 24.5N 88.9W 26.4N 83.4W 31.3N 72.0W
SHIP 62KTS 76KTS 83KTS 83KTS
DSHP 27KTS 43KTS 38KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.7W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 83.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Interestingly the NHC's TWD says 18N 84W, and the models begin at 18N 86W.

[cycloneye]

The biggest problem that 94L has is land interaction.Right now is drifting west so as that motion continues,it will reach the Yucatan in 12-24 hours.

[Thunder44]

Interestingly the NHC's TWD says 18N 84W, and the models begin at 18N 86W.

TWD is using a position at 12z.

[BigA]

I cant see much of a movement, even when I make the visible loops go at high speeds. I see maybe a NNW drift, but I could well be dead wrong, and 94L is moving west.

[Brent]

Next invest please. I think it's very possible we never see Noel... October is pushing along and a huge trough is coming south in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Next invest please. I think it's very possible we never see Noel... October is pushing along and a huge trough is coming south in the next few days.

If the 2007 season doesnt have more names,then CSU will have to explain in a great manner their faliure at the summary of season report in late November as they said 4/2/1 for the rest of the season.

[BigA]

Next invest please. I think it's very possible we never see Noel... October is pushing along and a huge trough is coming south in the next few days.

This system is finally showing signs of convective organization, and the trough is a few to several days away. Certainly too early to write this one off; possible land interaction is the most important factor right now.

In any event, one trough does not the season end, but given this year, it just might.

[Typhoon_Willie]

The Hurricane Center seems to not be in "next invest mode" as of yet and neither am I for that matter, so long as that afformentioned
strong front may very well pick up what ever is down there and throw it in the direction of Fla.

So let's not quite write this invest off yet and for us Floridians keep a watchful eye on that system as the TPC mentions that the environment will gradually become more condusive to tropical cyclone development in the coming days.

[Weatherboy1]

I too do not think it makes sense to write this invest off, or to assume it will just die out over Mexico without amounting to any kind of threat to Cuba, south FL or the Bahamas. It all depends on where the center of this thing consolidates and develops, if it ever does so. In my humble opinion, a difference of 200 miles could mean the difference between getting caught up in the front/trough and hauled NNE and NE a few days down the road ... or getting left behind and driven into the BOC or Yucatan. I can think of many model runs on many systems in the same area at the same time of year where a small difference in initial positioning made the difference between dramatically different paths.

[Blown Away]

The warm SST's and low wind shear won't matter to much, because 94L will probably be over land before to long.

[BigA]

The warm SST's and low wind shear won't matter to much, because 94L will probably be over land before to long.

You're probably right, given the models, but I dont see much in the way of movement, especially westward movement right now. Maybe a NNW Drift. More likely I'm not seeing something.

[gatorcane]

snippet from NWS Mia 2:48PM EST about trough.

I assume that "deep moisture" means anything that gets going is shooting out NE well south and East of the region....

fall is very near.

THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG TROUGH
AXIS WILL DIG ACROSS FL LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALSO
AGREE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FL
THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A CLOD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT BASICALLY TURNS INTO JUST A SLIGHT DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY AS IT COMES INTO SOUTH FL, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE LAKE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH AXIS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANTLY DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND ANY PRECIP WILL
BE LIMITED AT BEST THIS PERIOD IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.

[Thunder44]

snippet from NWS Mia 2:48PM EST about trough.

I assume that "deep moisture" means anything that gets going is shooting out NE well south and East of the region....

fall is very near.

THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG TROUGH
AXIS WILL DIG ACROSS FL LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALSO
AGREE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FL
THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A CLOD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT BASICALLY TURNS INTO JUST A SLIGHT DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY AS IT COMES INTO SOUTH FL, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE LAKE. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH AXIS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANTLY DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND ANY PRECIP WILL
BE LIMITED AT BEST THIS PERIOD IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.

The trough is not going to hang around for very long. It will be moving out by next week.

Take a look at the 12z GFS and ECMWF 8 to 10 day ensemble means:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read that to. The logic doesn't make sense to me. If the front heads down the state the winds will come out of the S/SW. Which to me means more moisture and whatever is in the carribean will lift north.

[Nimbus]

Doesn't look like it is going to shoot the Yucatan channel the way the 1921 October Hurricane did. It has definately been getting better organized and is gaining latitude though. The trough should pull it northeast later in the week.