INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Sjones]

Does anyone have any long run models pics of where this thing will end up at?

I posed them a little further up the page. ATM, it looks like they nearly all show a S. Texas landfall.

For some reason it's not showing up for me on my computer, guess that's why I didn't see it...do you have the link?

[Sjones]

Does anyone have any long run models pics of where this thing will end up at?

I posed them a little further up the page. ATM, it looks like they nearly all show a S. Texas landfall.

For some reason it's not showing up for me on my computer, guess that's why I didn't see it...do you have the link?

[rlltex]

Sanibel wrote:
This once again has the bad feeling of a weak system clearing out the GOM for business and a strong system following up.

Would you guys please explain to a complete novice. I thought a small storm would cool off the Gulf and make it less likely for a larger storm to come through.

[artist]

this was depicted the other day on one of the model runs. It showed it coming off of Honduras as a low and them becoming a td where it is if I recall correctly.

It is listed as the ngm which I know nothing about- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


Anyone have any info on this model? I am certain it is probably an old one that I just never knew about, but get teh feeling I am going to feel dumb when I find out!
from this page -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/

[EyELeSs1]

this sytem really seems to be developing a LLC to the west of the main convective area today

very interesting

[Sanibel]

Latest GHCC looking better. You can see the low level spiral curling in above Yucatan. The incipient CDO is consolidating also.

Way too close to the ULL and about to track over cool waters north of Yucatan.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel wrote:
This once again has the bad feeling of a weak system clearing out the GOM for business and a strong system following up.

Would you guys please explain to a complete novice. I thought a small storm would cool off the Gulf and make it less likely for a larger storm to come through.

Just a loose observation comparing Bonnie of 2004, which formed exactly this way, and was first detected on radar in this exact spot, and Charley that followed up - with the current set-up of 90L and 91L. I'm just a site amateur, so take my posts as you will. But the truth is it has been negative in this area lately and this could be the change. But with that Upper Level Low (ULL) spinning right next to it, I would say that would be the biggest inhibitor to strong formation.

As for the Gulf ocean temperature. It is very warm this year. A mild tropical storm won't cool it off enough to deter a following cyclone with headway already gained.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Looks to place the Upper/Middle TX Coast into heaviest squalls.

Matagorda Bay to Freeport @ 70 mph by wednesday, but all subject to change!!

[Stratosphere747]

12z NAM has it moving towards the Middle/Lower Texas Coast.

[lrak]

Looks to place the Upper/Middle TX Coast into heaviest squalls.

Matagorda Bay to Freeport @ 70 mph by wednesday, but all subject to change!!

bet ya not. $donation?

[astrosbaseball22]

will this provide rain for the houston area?

[lrak]

if it doesn't organize to much. Maybe once it hits land it will crawl up the coast and soak us all.

Love your avatar.

[Sanibel]

You have to expect the ULL to keep it from contracting a tight center. Therefore that heavy band arcking above the elongated system looks accurate to me. Those types of systems tend to be heavy rainers.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Looks to place the Upper/Middle TX Coast into heaviest squalls.

Matagorda Bay to Freeport @ 70 mph by wednesday, but all subject to change!!

bet ya not. $donation?

thats why I put subject to change b/c just dont know, jmo

[Brent]

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad low
pressure area has formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about
90 miles north-northeast of Cancun Mexico. Upper-level winds are
becoming more favorable for development of this system...and a
tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow as the low
moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve reconnassiance plane is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow...if necessary.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

'tis the season...........

[Nimbus]

The mid gulf ULL is going to steer this further north IF a storm develops.

[RL3AO]

CODE ORANGE!

[Aquawind]

770
ABNT20 KNHC 131517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 520
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSIANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[HouTXmetro]

Based on the satelite presentation last night I knew something was forming.