Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I do not understand the TPC's reluctance to upgrade TD 6. Structural organization has been improving over the past few hours. Mid-level rotation is more prominent, too. Look at the latest shortwave imagery. Observations indicate an increasing westerly component to the sfc winds south and west of the center. Additionally, the stations at Grenada and Saint Vincent/Grenadines have been reporting an increasing ENE and NNE component to the winds, which would indicate a better defined center approaching the area. Barbados has been reporting winds near 25 kts (more than 20 miles from the LLC), and higher one-minute values have been indicated by flight-level reconnaissance obs. The system's close proximity to land (warnings and watches) would definitely warrant an upgrade, too. I would appreciate the TPC's reasoning for their decision. Satellite presentation is irrelevant when the actual data supports a marginal tropical storm.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L

T numbers suggest winds of 34 kts. I think the TPC is waiting for convective persistence, but the majority of available data suggests prudence is the best choice. Felix should have been named at 8 p.m. EDT. I strongly respect the NHC, but I'm puzzled about this situation. Other systems were promptly upgraded, and TD 6 is too close to the Windward Islands.

[RL3AO]

Personally, I do not understand the TPC's reluctance to upgrade TD 6.

Did you mean TS Felix?

[Derek Ortt]

you CANNOT use the ADT if there is not an eye present. The ADT does NOT work for these types of systems

If there are TS winds, they are in a very small area... Id rather they be conservative with an upgrade rather than upgrade something that is not warranted

[Derek Ortt]

TS intensity is 34KT. The recon data was not quite there... the conversion yields 33.6KT. 34KT is 34KT, not 33.6KT

[Coredesat]

Indeed, the ADT simply can't locate a system without an identifiable eye or otherwise easily identified center. It has a pretty weird center estimate right now.

[RL3AO]

Remember, that 42kt FL was a 10 second sustained. Second, T# don't support an upgrade to Felix. And third, it doesn't matter. If this strengthening trend continues, it will be upgraded in 2 1/2 hours.

[brunota2003]

The Sats wanna play:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L

2.5 = 35 knots.

[cycloneye]

We wont tolerate bickering between members.Posts will be deleited without warning,Thank you

Cycloneye Moderator

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My forecast:
-High SSTs
-Low Shear
-High Heat Content
-There is little to inhibit rapid intensification once this system reaches the eastern caribbean.
-The potential exists for a signficant hurricane to form
-The ridge to the north will continue to allow favorable conditions for
rapid, if not explosive development once in the eastern to central caribbean.
-The peak time of rapid intensification should be over the western caribbean,
where rapid intensification is very very likely.
24 hrs- 60 mph tropical storm
48 hours- 80 mph hurricane
72 hours- 100 mph hurricane
96 hours- 125 mph major hurricane
120 hours- 140 mph major hurricane
Track: Out to central caribbean in 3 days. Beyond that,
I don't know.

[Duddy]

Halo 3 comes out on the 25th. If any storm tries to prevent me from being able to play it, I will personally fly over it and "seed" it myself.

[Ixolib]

Seems like things could get going pretty fast if those two blobs of convection get wrapped around.

[Derek Ortt]

if the area to the west were to dissipate and its inflow becomes focused about the center, this thing could really get going

It is looking more and more likely that there is going to be yet another destructive Caribbean hurricane on our hands

[RL3AO]

If you put something in the Caribbean with low shear, it will go nuts.

[HURAKAN]

[Zardoz]

It is looking more and more likely that there is going to be yet another destructive Caribbean hurricane on our hands

Floater One RGB

It's hard to understand the conservative intensity forecasts.

[RL3AO]

I'd say its 8-6. Its all about named storms.

[southerngale]

Shouldn't the edit about the BAMS be in the TD 6 Models thread title instead?

"TD SIX,-Discussions-Imagery=00:00z BAM Models shortly"

[cycloneye]

Shouldn't the edit about the BAMS be in the TD 6 Models thread title instead?

"TD SIX,-Discussions-Imagery=00:00z BAM Models shortly"

Those are not global models but tropical models.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0059 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062007) 20070901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 0000 070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 59.3W 12.6N 62.3W 13.4N 65.2W 14.3N 68.4W
BAMD 11.9N 59.3W 12.5N 62.6W 13.2N 65.9W 14.0N 69.4W
BAMM 11.9N 59.3W 12.6N 62.4W 13.4N 65.4W 14.4N 68.7W
LBAR 11.9N 59.3W 12.5N 62.4W 13.4N 66.0W 14.1N 69.6W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 58KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 0000 070904 0000 070905 0000 070906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 71.4W 17.3N 77.2W 19.1N 82.1W 21.2N 86.4W
BAMD 14.8N 72.9W 15.9N 78.6W 16.8N 82.9W 18.3N 86.8W
BAMM 15.4N 71.9W 17.2N 77.4W 18.9N 81.9W 20.9N 86.2W
LBAR 15.0N 73.1W 15.9N 79.4W 15.8N 84.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 83KTS 94KTS 100KTS
DSHP 66KTS 83KTS 94KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 59.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 56.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Moving 280 degrees at 13kts.