INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

['CaneFreak]

looks like some high shear once it passes through the islands

also, the convection has really died out this morning; therefore, I do not see this as having that much chance at developing... but the one south of the CV islands has a good chance to do something

I can see the upper trof/low over the eastern Caribbean on WV imagery. But the GFS moves the low out and builds a quite large ridge over the eastern Caribbean by Tuesday. Could be favorable for development by then.

I agree 57....for those of you who dont see this upper level low, its very clear in the 200 mb vorticity maps....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

If we can get this upper level low to move out and or weaken, then conditions would become VERY favorable for this thing to develop. That's all pending the movement and evolution of this upper level low. This will be the area to watch over the next several days. This time of year especially, things can and do change very rapidly in the Carribean. I will have my eyes on this and the eastern Atlantic wave over the course of this week. This season is not over by a long shot.

[gatorcane]

Mean mid-level steering suggest a path right through the Caribbean into the NW Caribbean....although that big High over the Southern US is probably going to shift east over the next week.

I can tell you that I seriously doubt this will hit Central America -- not this time (if it develops).

[wxman57]

I think I'd go with NHC on their prediction.

I'm not sure what you mean. The NHC isn't issuing a track or intensity forecast for this disturbance. All they mention is that there is a chance it could develop.

[Sanibel]

Caribbean is the only chance for this since it really needs some convection. Right now it looks like another dry Ingrid ready to be sheared away. It has a good spiral but lacks convection. My instinct says too weak, but I'm really not sure with this one. Could strengthen further downrange.

Edit: The south band has deepened and curved. Looks like this could be coming together.

[KWT]

Yeah I think this one has a good shot at development in the Caribbean. There is some shear but if it can gain a decent circulation before then, then once the shear eases we al lknow the heat content is very high still at this time of year and can support decent hurricanes still.
Needs to be watched as its the main short-mid term threat...

12-18hrs away from TD I rekcon IF it can carry on like this, esp given its current location.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What????? CMC brings this into the bahamas towards
SE Florida... with 96L near/ne of the islands...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Sanibel]

96L is strong enough that if both form it should drive 97L a little south, which is why CMC is showing a west track towards Florida. CMC also shows 97L lifting almost straight north before the islands into a weakness and recurve track. Something shouts to me that 97L wipes 96L out - but I could be totally wrong on that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks likle NHC is thinking Puerto Rico if it develops.

Relevant parts cut-n-pasted from tropical forecast


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.


...Really big snip...

CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED OVER W CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF AREA MON MORNING. ASSOCIATED SE WINDS
15-20 KT JUST S OF YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX TO
10-15 KT MON AND 10 KT THEREAFTER. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER E
CARIBBEAN AROUND SUNRISE MON AND MOVE W AT ABOUT 15 KT REACHING
WEST CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI. NHC SUGGESTING POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT THEIR CURRENT THINKING IS THE CYCLONE...
IF IT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE NW THREATENING NE ISLANDS WHILE THE
PARENT WAVE WOULD CONTINUE W.

[flwxwatcher]

What????? CMC brings this into the bahamas towards
SE Florida... with 96L near/ne of the islands...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I saw that the CMC does this.. interesting to note last nights EURO had something NE of PR at 72 Hours that tracks thru the Southern Bahamas to near Cuba in the longer range.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092300!!/

[HUC]

Where is the main center of this complex system: 11,5° N 55° W,or around 14°N 46° W?????At this last location there is a clear swirl!!!!!

[Vortex]

After a review of the 00z and 12z globals I would not be surprised if this system moves wnw/nw for the next 48 hours(while organizing) to a position over or near Guadeloupe then over or near Puerto rico before turning w/wnw as it gets underneath the strengthening ridge over the west atlantic. This could put this system under a very favorable upper-air pattern and near the SE bahamas Thursday...

[Vortex]

11.5N 54W for NOW likely a mid-level circulation

[KWT]

There is a circulation to the NE of the main mass HUD but I don't think its related to this system. The main circulation is likely to form near the convective mass, probably close to where Vortex has said. If it develops its going to be a real threat to some of the Greater Antilles and maybe the USA, at this time of year its unlikely to just plow through the Caribbean into central America.

[Vortex]

This will not enter the cental carribean..The synoptics are pretty clear cut the next 3 days..

Expect the NHC suite of models to get better aligned with the globals later today or monday. This will come near or over Puerto Rico and go just north of DR....

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 54W/55W OR ABOUT
300 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING AND
IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

$$
CANGIALOSI

[HUC]

This the type of situation that is realy uncomfortable: a strong wave,close to the islands,no close circulation,but that may change at any time,and suddenly we got a TS when it's not a hurricane in our hands....We call these systems here a "Barbadian",and the latest was Marilyn ,a hurricane in 1995;also i remember the Storm call "Helena "in October 1963...and there are others. So i stay tuned,and our meteorological offices are in alert to face these brutal situations....Our friends in the Gulf or South Florida known these rapidly growing systems...no much time to react!!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71
A. 24/1600,2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 24/1430Z
D. 26.0N 94.0W
E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72
A. 25/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA CYCLONE
C. 25/0315Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 25/0430Z TO 25/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z, 24/0600Z AND 24/1200Z
ON THIS SYSTEM CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1545Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 25/1200Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[KWT]

I think in the end this could well be a threat to Hispaniola and also Cuba of course not forgetting the islands before then that could well see something if the system decides to form. Given the current synoptic set-up if it does form its got a good shot at being a risk to the USA providing it survives land interaction.

[fci]

What????? CMC brings this into the bahamas towards
SE Florida... with 96L near/ne of the islands...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Still getting over the 8/23 Hurricane CMC had hitting us in SE Fla.
I have NO regard for what this model shows for SE FLa.

[jaxfladude]

Here we go again, Caribbean-wise that is....