Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Chacor]

Which was the last CPac storm to warrant recon?

[cyclonic chronic]

did ioke have recon?

[Derek Ortt]

I believe Jimena in 2003. Hawaii was under a Hurricane Watch and TS Warning

In 1994, there was a LOT of recon for the CPAC (may have even been more than the Atlantic)

[Chacor]

did ioke have recon?

No it didn't as it didn't pose a threat to the state.

[Chacor]

You know the Atlantic season is slow when cnn.com says "The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Flossie has strengthened into a hurricane in the Pacific Ocean." is breaking news.

[Derek Ortt]

not necessarily

I think it is because of the Hawaii threat. Any possible TS or hurricane threat to the USA these days is major news

[Chacor]

not necessarily

I think it is because of the Hawaii threat. Any possible TS or hurricane threat to the USA these days is major news

Given that that "threat" is still a good 4-5 days out and might possibly not verify...

[Derek Ortt]

our media goes gaga when a cumulus cloud threatens to form into a depression, much less when a hurricane is threatening

[RL3AO]

Cosme was a bigger threat at this time and I didn't hear a peep from the media.

[Derek Ortt]

Cosme? Cosme only had a chance to affect the islands as a minimal storm

[RL3AO]

Wasn't Cosme 65kts at around 135W?

[Derek Ortt]

I thik it was at 130KT and it only lasted for 6 hours and the forecast had it over cold water.

Flossie is starting to intensify quite a bit this afternoon and is over warm water

[Cyclenall]

I was actually a little bit surprised because Flossie didn't look the best early this morning but then the eye popped out and all is good. Can it last through til the Cpac as a hurricane?

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Third % chance of Hurricane Flossie becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Category 2 Hurricane: 45%
Category 3 Hurricane: 30%
Category 4 Hurricane: 5%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1% ~ (Mostly unknown due the the fact this could cross into the Cpac and then go the "Ioke way" by small chance since it's August and that time of year)

[WindRunner]

I thik it was at 130KT and it only lasted for 6 hours and the forecast had it over cold water.

Flossie is starting to intensify quite a bit this afternoon and is over warm water

Cosme was 130kts? Surely you mean 130W?


But yes . . . this cannot be compared to Cosme at all . . . especially as there is a more significant WNW/NW component to the expected motion.

[Derek Ortt]

130KT... oh dear... 130W

[Derek Ortt]

models now initialized at 75KT

[RL3AO]

10/1800 UTC 12.6N 136.6W T4.5/4.5 FLOSSIE

4.5 = 77 kt

[Derek Ortt]

it is starting to look like a 5.0/5.0 on the latest imagery with the eye clearing out and deeper convection on the western side.

The intensity forecast models have not performed well at all with this one

[RL3AO]

Derek, are you expecting 75 or 80 kt at 2100?

And you are right about the intensity. The NHC has really had a bad run with this.

[Derek Ortt]

could go either way, dpeending upon the TAFB estimate and how well it looks at 5. I'd go with 75KT... but then again I am very conservative (I am one who will not call something a hurricane until exactly 64KT has been reached... had 77KT at flight level once during Ophelia during RAINEX and refused to upgrade to hurricane status for the field project as 77KT equates to about 61.6KT, below the thresshold