Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS only condisered the mean winds of the atmosphere when calculating the shear

[wxman57]

None of the reliable computer models? I don't get that. The EURO is developing it and it's one of the most reliable,maybe not in projected path but with development it usually seems quite good

It's questionable just what the European is developing. I'm running GARP and plotting the ECMWF sea level pressure isobars at 1/2 mb increments. It doesn't seem to initialize anything near 10N/40W this morning, but seems to be developing something well east of there and moving it to the Caribbean Sunday evening. In fact, it shows a very weak low reaching 45W Friday evening. That's the weak low it moves into the Caribbean early Sunday. Since this disturbance is already nearing 41W, that doesn't seem realistic.

[Meso]

Ah wxman57. I was actually wondering if it was actually that area that it was developing,but since I only had the runs from the ECMWF site available it was kind of hard to tell.

[Sanibel]

I'm putting the center further back nearer to 38W. The visible loop shows quick inflowing surface clouds at that spot making the main convection area sheared by easterlies - which makes sense.

Quickscat had this one yesterday, which made it a likely developer. It is being held down by subsidence from the ridge to its north but has beat it and I would say is now a certainty as far as a CV cyclone.

I would worry about a Belize flat track from the low-track synoptic ahead of it. - Weird track year.

Watch this flare when it hits favorability and warm waters just ahead.

['CaneFreak]

Sanibel, I believe you are seeing the left-over circulation from yesterday in its final stages of life....look further west and you will see there is a little spin near 10.8 N and approximately 40.8 West or so....you'll see it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Do a relatively fast animation as well...and you will see the dying circulation you are currently seeing.

[gatorcane]

The NHC has removed "slow development" and "if any" from their TWO....I think they are agreeing with us....and will wait until later today to add "a depression may form"...

[Sanibel]

To be honest, I can't tell. You are right. That swirl could be a left-behind eddy. We'll have to wait for Quickscat. If the center is under the convection it is further north.

[msbee]

Timing is everything. We will know soon if this is a US threat. I think this is either a fish,or a FLA storm

Way too early to say FLA or fish storm. What is your reasoning behind that statement?

FL or fish storm? are you guys forgetting the islands again?
don't forget! It has to pass us first!

[flwxwatcher]

None of the reliable computer models? I don't get that. The EURO is developing it and it's one of the most reliable,maybe not in projected path but with development it usually seems quite good

EURO.. seems to be doing what it did in the initial stages with Dean, its having trouble on what to develope and movement. It will probably be a few days until things start to become a little more clear . Time will tell

[Sanibel]

OK. I'm putting it near 39W.

You can't buck science. In an easterly shear the main convection center has to be west of the surface center. The illusion of the center you are seeing is caused by the ridge flattening the system and elongating its shape. It is currently fighting that and gaining roundness as you can see. But the center is still east of the main convection at 39W as it should be in easterly shear.

[MWatkins]

This is one of those times when I would recommend looking at the broad image and not get caught up in the floater imagery. When you look at a wider image...you can see the broad circulation. From there pick the middle...and that lines up pretty well with the QSCAT position from this morning.

For TD to get mentioned we're going to need to see the t-numbers come up. Right now it is too weak to classify...would need a 1.5 from SAB and TAFB.

Too bad the budget can't afford sat fixes from AFWA anymore.

MW

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we could get a Felix before the month is through. I'm sensing it basically following Dean's footsteps unless another system breaks the ridge...

[Derek Ortt]

wrong position Sanibel... it is clearly west of 40W

The easterly shear is not strong enough to displace the convection. Also, the system is moving faster than the easterly shear

[AJC3]

None of the reliable computer models? I don't get that. The EURO is developing it and it's one of the most reliable,maybe not in projected path but with development it usually seems quite good

It's questionable just what the European is developing. I'm running GARP and plotting the ECMWF sea level pressure isobars at 1/2 mb increments. It doesn't seem to initialize anything near 10N/40W this morning, but seems to be developing something well east of there and moving it to the Caribbean Sunday evening. In fact, it shows a very weak low reaching 45W Friday evening. That's the weak low it moves into the Caribbean early Sunday. Since this disturbance is already nearing 41W, that doesn't seem realistic.

From what I have available, the H85 vortex that the 28/00Z ECM is developing was initialized at 10N 38W.

[Sanibel]

Well, to cut to the chase, this should definitely become a hurricane going through the Caribbean. It will show its center soon enough.

[hurricanetrack]

I am not nearly convinced since the overall global models do not favor development. There must be a reason why that is the case.....wonder what that reason could be? One is that it simply is not in the cards for this to develop- otherwise the major models would show development.

I for one hope it does develop- but am realistic at what I am seeing in the advanced global models.

[wxman57]

None of the reliable computer models? I don't get that. The EURO is developing it and it's one of the most reliable,maybe not in projected path but with development it usually seems quite good

It's questionable just what the European is developing. I'm running GARP and plotting the ECMWF sea level pressure isobars at 1/2 mb increments. It doesn't seem to initialize anything near 10N/40W this morning, but seems to be developing something well east of there and moving it to the Caribbean Sunday evening. In fact, it shows a very weak low reaching 45W Friday evening. That's the weak low it moves into the Caribbean early Sunday. Since this disturbance is already nearing 41W, that doesn't seem realistic.

From what I have available, the H85 vortex that the 28/00Z ECM is developing was initialized at 10N 38W.

Yeah, could be. I see on the Penn State E-wall 00hr map (see link below) that there's a vorticity center near there last evening. But it moves the system so slowly westward. 5 days to go just over 1000 miles is just over 10 kts.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/f00.gif

[Meso]

Convection still persistent so far and looking rather good

[Scorpion]

Its looking pretty impressive, I would guess a TD within 36 hours perhaps.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, the 12Z GFS is coming out and it all but destroys this system- once again. How could it develop if the GFS, a great global model, can't even develop it within 96 hours?

I know people want to have something to track, perhaps none more than me, but time after time these invests turn out to be nothing more than a bunch of late nights waiting for nothing.

We have a lot of smart people on this forum. Let's get some input as to why one of the best global models, certainly in the short term, does not develop 94L. There's gotta be a reason other than "the GFS is poor in the cyclogenesis stage". It certainly was not poor with 92L which looked far better than this system.

Just want to make sure people don't get too worked up over something that has almost no model support. Save your energy for times when bigger and better invests come down the pipes!

Just my thoughts on a hot, muggy SE NC day.