Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[SaveNola]

these are a considerable shift to the north arent they?

[southerngale]

Shouldn't the edit about the BAMS be in the TD 6 Models thread title instead?

"TD SIX,-Discussions-Imagery=00:00z BAM Models shortly"

Those are not global models but tropical models.

Oh, good grief...ok. We should have a thread for all models.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0z BAM runs seem to have taken a pretty good shift north too. ~21N, ~86W, as the BAMS and BAMM show, would be located off the northern tip of the Yucatan.

[HarlequinBoy]

Question, a tad Off Topic.. I'm sorry.

Is this the "main thread" for TD Six? I'm kind of confused. Just wondering.

[ROCK]

yep, they jumped big time....have to see if this is just temporary thing or a trend.

[cycloneye]

Shouldn't the edit about the BAMS be in the TD 6 Models thread title instead?

"TD SIX,-Discussions-Imagery=00:00z BAM Models shortly"

Those are not global models but tropical models.

Oh, good grief...ok. We should have a thread for all models.

I will accept your suggestion.From now on the BAM models will be posted in the Global models thread that will change the title to Global and BAM models thread.

[ronjon]

BAM medium and shallow have shifted north on their 00Z run toward the NE tip of the Yucatan at the end of 5 days. Wonder if this will be a trend?

[aguaviva]

The discussion about the 8 pm report is interesting because it points out to the dual nature/purpose of hurricane forecasting. On the one hand there is the science and on the other the matter of public safety. I have great respect for Derek and the scientists, and I agree that scientific accuracy is non-negotiable, but even if there is consensus on the decision from a scientific point of view, there is more to consider, and that is how the message is conveyed. The intermediate public advisory could have been more strongly worded. Frtunately, the islands to be affected here got a good whacking by Dean so I am sure that, this time, people will pay lots of attention even if they think the storm is likely to arrive only as a TD. (which belief regardless of the actual 38/39 mph difference makes a lot of impact in people's decision to take these systems seriously or not).

[ROCK]

graphics...


https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

[aguaviva]

I think two of those models in the suite are saying this passes very close to Jamaica.

[southerngale]

Question, a tad Off Topic.. I'm sorry.

Is this the "main thread" for TD Six? I'm kind of confused. Just wondering.

Yes.

[ronjon]

The BAM shallow wasn't updated on that last graphic - it's even further north. Not good when the models are starting to move toward climo (CLP5).

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am still not too worried. Though this shift is noteworthy, we need to keep in mind that these are the BAM models, and they are not the best when it comes to future track. I will start worrying much more when the other, more reliable, models start coming into agreement with this shift.

[cycloneye]

Question, a tad Off Topic.. I'm sorry.

Is this the "main thread" for TD Six? I'm kind of confused. Just wondering.

As my fellow moderator said,yes,this is the main thread for TD SIX,future storm or hurricane until it is over.From now on there will not be model runs posted here to avoid confusion.All the model runs from the Global and the BAMS or tropical models will be posted in the models thread.

[Derek Ortt]

this is not a shallow system. BAMS does not apply

[El Nino]

Hmmmm SHIP up to major hurricane in 5 days

[abajan]

It's getting noticeably windier out there!

For most of today it's been pretty breezy on and off but over the last 20 minutes or so those winds have definitely started to pick up. Not that I'm particularly concerned about it or anything. I just thought folks monitoring the board would want to know.

Knowing that this was never really going to be a serious threat to the island, I decided against starting a separate "Reports From Barbados" thread.

[cycloneye]

It's getting noticeably windier out there!

For most of today it's been pretty breezy on and off but over the last 20 minutes or so those winds have definitely started to pick up. Not that I'm particularly concerned about it or anything. I just thought folks monitoring the board would want to know.

Knowing that this was never really going to be a serious threat to the island, I decided against starting a separate "Reports From Barbados" thread.

Stay safe over there my friend.When you can,report what is going on in that island in terms of rainfall,pressure and winds.

[HURAKAN]

[vaffie]

Dvorak number up to 2.5.


31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean

31/1745 UTC 11.2N 57.6W T2.0/2.0 94L

Most of the tracks now miss Honduras, and many are now heading into the Gulf of Mexico even. How different things can look just a few hours later. I would not be surprised if the trend continues until the majority of the tracks even miss the Yucatan. With these more northerly tracks will come higher predictions of intensity too as land interaction with South America decreases.