Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[cpdaman]

personally i think felix will imitate dean. although it starts two degree's further south it will probably be further south of jamaica and may take a may wnw movement after it passes jam. i would look out for the possibility it gets turned toward texas after yucatan. (this was a poss. w/ dean for awhile as well)

also i think 98 L will be a intresting storm that grows to hurricane strength (but faces more shear) and may impact puerto rico and the SE bahamas but then curve out to sea. (the reason being the tropical low that forms off se coast mid/late next week)

[cycloneye]

This is the one all of us who live in the NE Caribbean have to keep a close eye.It is already in a more northern latitud that other disturbances and conditions should improve as it moves westward.The fly on the ommient may be Felix.If the outflow of Felix creates shear that may affect 98L.But being so far apart (around 1600 miles) I dont see much of interference,unless a trough digs from the north and if that happens it may kill it.

Hello to caribepr,bvigal,msbee,EyELESS,HUC,Konthopered,HurricaneMasterPR and many more NE Caribbean members,lets watch closely this.

[storms in NC]

Yeah I think you all just like us on the EC need to keep a eye out on this baby.

[destruction92]

personally i think felix will imitate dean. although it starts two degree's further south it will probably be further south of jamaica and may take a may wnw movement after it passes jam. i would look out for the possibility it gets turned toward texas after yucatan. (this was a poss. w/ dean for awhile as well)

also i think 98 L will be a intresting storm that grows to hurricane strength (but faces more shear) and may impact puerto rico and the SE bahamas but then curve out to sea. (the reason being the tropical low that forms off se coast mid/late next week)

CPDAMAN, out of all the amateur posts I have read on the "talkin' tropics", I must admit that this post of yours sounds the most plausible. I rarely do this, but I want to offer an official congratulatory salutation to you for making such a reasonable and sound judgement of what to anticipate. I think that storm2k, besides having a member of the month, should have a "post of the month".

Once again, congratulations!

[bvigal]

Hello to you, Luis!
Yes, have been mildly concerned about this one since it was so powerful over Africa. I know you have have been watching it at least that long, too.

And now we have persistance, it has fought it's way through the SAL last few days and now fired up again. What impresses me is the quickscat showing what could be a closed low. True it may not have favorable conditions in layers above, but sometimes, despite adverse environment, these get their engine started. It's still not exact science.

IF it decides to get organized, we will only have a few days before it reaches Leewards. Will be watching this closely.

[hurricanefloyd5]

If and only if this thing forms and heads for P.R. then and only then will the BAHAMA'S have to prepare for a "POSSIBLE" Hurricane if that!!!!

If this happen then Florida "COULD" be in a target threat????


2 things 1 im not wishcasting and 2 im not saying this will happen and I will be the first to attemt that im wrong if and only if this dose not happen!!!!

[bvigal]

Check out the vorticity at various levels. I'm not going to post them all (4) here, takes up too much space. Start with 850mb. When it opens, you can click the buttons to see others.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[canegrl04]

I hope for the sake of Floridians that this one does not become another Charlie This looks like it has a better chance than Felix and Dean to be a US threat

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hope for the sake of Floridians that this one does not become another Charlie This looks like it has a better chance than Felix and Dean to be a US threat

I am sure it have a good chance but thats just pushing it abit toofar as of now??? I'LL be on top of things to the best of my ability and time!!!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

At this time the steering currents would take it to the Central/Northern Islands

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The islands need to watch this very closely.
After that the track gets complicated. Will
a low off the SE coast curve it out to sea?
Will the ridge build in and push it westward further?
Will it chug north of the bahamas?

We will have to wait and see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

models seem to want to take this toward the northern Caribbean.. https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

It might be a bit premature to call this a bahamas or SE U.S. storm. Though it very well could be, it may also end up being another Caribbean storm (though further north than Dean/Felix). We still have plenty of time to watch this though.

[Vortex]

On this visible(1645 utc) you can clearly see the llc east of the convection. More importantly, the llc is becoming better defined with each hour and expect convection to fire over the center tonight..Residents in the NE carribean need to keep a very close eye on this developing storm!!

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[storms in NC]

This is true that the Central and north Islands need to watch this like now. But I Would bet any thing (which at this time I don't have any thing cause Hubby lost job yesterday) it will come up the EC and hit us. Why I have told you that mother nature loves him and comes to see him on will a week before or after his Bday. Bday is Sept 6. he will be 56.

[fci]

models seem to want to take this toward the northern Caribbean.. https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

It might be a bit premature to call this a bahamas or SE U.S. storm. Though it very well could be, it may also end up being another Caribbean storm (though further north than Dean/Felix). We still have plenty of time to watch this though.

Futher north than Dean/Felix is not a good thing.
For the Islands and for the U.S.

Not for one moment discounting the effects that Dean had and any that Felix may have.
My post is intended, selfishly; from the perspective of one who lives in South Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

How strong do any of u guys think this thing can get too?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This could move through the northern caribbean,
or it could move north of the islands. Too early to tell.
Islands should watch it.

[Vortex]

Early thoughts...

TD late Sunday/Monday
TS Monday night
Cat 1 Tuesday
Cat 1/2 nearing islands Wednesday
Cat 2/3 over islands/nearing PR Wednesday night

[Weatherfreak000]

98L is practically a shoe-in to develop.


Give another 24 hours if the convection increases only marginally and I have no doubt we'll see TD #7.


And like Wxman said, the possibility for TD #8 is around the corner too, hope you guys enjoy active late seasons...

[Brent]

Yep, I think it's going to develop before the holiday weekend is over.

September begins and on the first day the switch is ON!