Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[Buck]

Ring the alarm! I think we've got a new leader in the race for next TD.

[Brent]

OK that is developing sooner rather than later. We were focused on the wrong invest...

[gatorcane]

I say TD by 11pm tonight with the cone pointing at the Bahamas.....

[ROCK]

that does look like inflow from the SW....I can see this being a TD very soon. Maybe by morning if this keeps up....

[Vortex]

Any NW component will be short lived...As it organizes and ridging strengthens to the north it will head generally wnw the next 3-4 days..

[HollynLA]

I say TD by 11pm tonight with the cone pointing at the Bahamas.....

Wow, that's even bolder than my 11am tomorrow prediction, but it's definitely possible. Never say never when it comes to the tropics.

[KWT]

This does look a much faster formed then 91L and has to be the short term biggest threat to the US after Gabby is gone. In truth the whole east coast needs to watch this IMO. Gabby will leave a weakness as it heads NE but that will soon close and be replaced by a ridge, so its all about timing but I can see a pretty quick former out of this, though not quite as fast as Felix!

[destruction92]

the IR loop does not look that impressive as it did earlier today...Dmin?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

I see a definite, well-defined mid level rotation near 18N/58W. High pressure is now blocking it to the north. This should force it on a slightly north of west track for the next few days. Upper air environment doesn't look too bad for development. In fact, take a look at a WV loop. Nice upper-level high over the convection. If the convection tightens up a bit and increases over night then we may well have something more than a disturbance to deal with in 24-36 hours.

It should track toward the Bahamas but it looks like the ridge to its north may weaken quite a bit as it approaches FL. Fairly strong cold front approaching the east coast next weekend could pick it up and turn it northward (think Floyd track 1999). But in this case it could reach FL before turning. No confidence in that yet, just a possibility.

[Vortex]

While overall organization has improved the 1645 utc and obs indicate still MLC(no LLC). Convection will likely wane this afternoon before re-firing tonight...At that time then the real show may begin...

[gatorcane]

Florida needs to watch this system. I don't trust any system that moves close to the Bahamas in that general direction.

84* and rising...

Folks for those that don't know this poster -- he is VERY reputable. If he is saying this we should all be closely monitoring this situation here in South Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know if its surface or not, but definitely a spin on SW side big convection as seen in this close-up vis loop.

[flwxwatcher]

Any NW component will be short lived...As it organizes and ridging strengthens to the north it will head generally wnw the next 3-4 days..

Agree.. Looks like this one has a good chance to develop. I think Gabby will be out of the way and have no effect on the track of 92L . Its later in the week when this (if) gets into the Bahamas when things will get interesting on where it wants to go.. It looks like the upper environment will continue to improve as it moves away from the Central Atlantic Trough. I really do feel 92L will be a player this week.

[destruction92]

Florida needs to watch this system. I don't trust any system that moves close to the Bahamas in that general direction.

84* and rising...

Folks for those that don't know this poster -- he is VERY reputable. If he is saying this we should all be closely monitoring this situation here in South Florida.

Wxman57 just said that a Floyd scenario seems more likely than a Florida threat due to a VERY STRONG COLD FRONT next weekend.
Is Hyperstorm a professional met like Wxman57...otherwise, I would trust Wxman57 a little more.

[Weatherfreak000]

I say TD by 11pm tonight with the cone pointing at the Bahamas.....

That's not going to happen, this thing is SLOWLY developing.


Let's all chill people, after watching invests for so long you should know tropical development takes much longer than this.

[ROCK]

Don't know if its surface or not, but definitely a spin on SW side big convection as seen in this close-up vis loop.

given by that run...its looks to be either at the surface or very close....low clouds now being sucked in from the sw....

[ROCK]

I say TD by 11pm tonight with the cone pointing at the Bahamas.....

That's not going to happen, this thing is SLOWLY developing.


Let's all chill people, after watching invests for so long you should know tropical development takes much longer than this.

Yeah I guess Felix was a slow developer too.....

[cycloneye]

Go to talking tropics forum and vote in the poll of which invest will be a TD first.

[gatorcane]

Florida needs to watch this system. I don't trust any system that moves close to the Bahamas in that general direction.

84* and rising...

Folks for those that don't know this poster -- he is VERY reputable. If he is saying this we should all be closely monitoring this situation here in South Florida.

Wxman57 just said that a Floyd scenario seems more likely than a Florida threat due to a VERY STRONG COLD FRONT next weekend.
Is Hyperstorm a professional met like Wxman57...otherwise, I would trust Wxman57 a little more.

Note Wxman said it was a possibility -- but he is not sure yet. It could track into Florida first before turning...

[wzrgirl1]

convection is on the decrease....i think if it survives this evening we could have a player.....takes time