Probably a good time to remind everyone of the 5pm discussion from the NHC:
A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES. I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING
BEHIND IT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY
3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AGAIN...BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.
Anyone who thinks they have all the answers right now is mistaken. The NHC doesn't even know what will happen for sure. It is way too early to assume that the trough will be too weak and too progressive or that the ridge will build back in quickly. We will not know these things
for sure until the early to mid part of next week. Until then, everybody's predictions are more or less just an educated guess. That's why, ATM, the NHC track is probably the best thing to look at. They have been doing a pretty decent job so far, and I am sure they will continue to do a good job in the days to come. For now, we all just need to watch Felix closely and hope for the best in the end.
Also, Remember: Even if Felix doesn't hit the U.S. directly, a hit on NE Mexico (as the current NHC track shows) would mean probable TS force winds in parts of far south Texas. That is something to keep in mind if you live in a place such as Brownsville.
I know this....just wanted to hear it from Wxmn. I am just getting tired of the one liners.....
