hurricanetrack wrote:Ok, the 12Z GFS is coming out and it all but destroys this system- once again. How could it develop if the GFS, a great global model, can't even develop it within 96 hours?
I know people want to have something to track, perhaps none more than me, but time after time these invests turn out to be nothing more than a bunch of late nights waiting for nothing.
We have a lot of smart people on this forum. Let's get some input as to why one of the best global models, certainly in the short term, does not develop 94L. There's gotta be a reason other than "the GFS is poor in the cyclogenesis stage". It certainly was not poor with 92L which looked far better than this system.
Just want to make sure people don't get too worked up over something that has almost no model support. Save your energy for times when bigger and better invests come down the pipes!
Just my thoughts on a hot, muggy SE NC day.
Well, Mark, we have at least one pro-met opinion of a 30% chance of development, so that's about 1-in-3. So it's worth watching. I enjoy watching the ones that don't develop, too, because I learn what to NOT to look for.
Besides, it looks pretty neat on satellite, regardless of poor model support, and it's that same old desire to track the next Katrina from its very start as a raindrop.
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