Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[caneman]

Derek,

You did great on Felix. Which way would this head?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at the SHIPS/DSHIPS/BAMs on Ohio State text site.


Which model is ued to tell DSHIPs when a cyclone has made landfall? DSHP shows landfall between 72 and 96 hours

Link

[HURAKAN]

Latest: Tomorrow's DMAX should be interesting.

[RL3AO]

Interesting. Hopefully they still have some planes in Mississippi.

[destruction92]

Interesting. Hopefully they still have some planes in Mississippi.

They should...99L has a much better chance of affecting the U.S. than Felix.

[Sanibel]

Hey, this is the system Bastardi called for several days ago.

A little warm on the tops, but has the look.

[destruction92]

what are the gfs, NOGAPS, UKMET, EURO, ECMWF, and Canadian saying about 99L?

I searched the SFWMD site for 99L model information with no success.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro and BAMs suggest Florida/Georgia threat, Canadian and GFDL seem to suggest a Carolinas to Northeast threat

18Z GFS takes some of the energy Eastward, but leaves some back, develops a weak system that heads for Carolinas, recurves missing New England as well,

Link for 18Z GFS

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Very Favorable Conditions possible
This could pose a serious threat.

24 hours- Invest
48 hours- 40 mph tropical storm
72 hours- 70 mph tropical storm
96 hours- 90+ mph hurricane, landfall with
rapid intensification over the gulf stream possible.

landfall between north carolina
and daytona beach, florida. Can't be more specific yet.
path subject to uncertainty

storm will move east and then
the ridge should bump it west
and a strong trough may influence
it as well

but everyone from florida up to the carolinas
should be on guard.

[wzrgirl1]

wow one of the models has it dipping as far south as west palm....interesting

[destruction92]

wow one of the models has it dipping as far south as west palm....interesting

link? which model? the consensus seems to favor North Carolina right?

[x-y-no]

Enough of this!

I'm deleting this whole series of posts ... get back on topic.

[Coredesat]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Very Favorable Conditions possible
This could pose a serious threat.

24 hours- Invest
48 hours- 40 mph tropical storm
72 hours- 70 mph tropical storm
96 hours- 90+ mph hurricane, landfall with
rapid intensification over the gulf stream possible.

landfall between north carolina
and daytona beach, florida. Can't be more specific yet.
path subject to uncertainty

storm will move east and then
the ridge should bump it west
and a strong trough may influence
it as well

but everyone from florida up to the carolinas
should be on guard.

This forecast is weird as the system doesn't even have a well-defined center. Heat content here isn't what it is in the Caribbean. Where do you get the trough, and what data do you have to support your reasoning?

[wzrgirl1]

wow one of the models has it dipping as far south as west palm....interesting

link? which model? the consensus seems to favor North Carolina right?

Cycloneeye posted this is the models section....was just answering your post
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.1N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2007 29.1N 71.6W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 27.1N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 27.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2007 27.2N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2007 27.3N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2007 27.6N 77.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2007 28.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I didnt saw the UKMET posted so here it is.

[jrod]

Here is a link to some of the models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[caribepr]

Enough of this!

I'm deleting this whole series of posts ... get back on topic.

Thank you. Unlike observers, those deeply involved with Felix are also aware of what the impact will be...and that is real and that is now. 99 can be followed much more easily for the moment.
Derek - take some deep breaths...and thank you.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Very Favorable Conditions possible
This could pose a serious threat.

24 hours- Invest
48 hours- 40 mph tropical storm
72 hours- 70 mph tropical storm
96 hours- 90+ mph hurricane, landfall with
rapid intensification over the gulf stream possible.

landfall between north carolina
and daytona beach, florida. Can't be more specific yet.
path subject to uncertainty

storm will move east and then
the ridge should bump it west
and a strong trough may influence
it as well

but everyone from florida up to the carolinas
should be on guard.

This forecast is weird as the system doesn't even have a well-defined center. Heat content here isn't what it is in the Caribbean. Where do you get the trough, and what data do you have to support your reasoning?

I know it is not as much heat content as caribbean if it were I would forecast
category 2-3 range but since the gulf stream can still support category
1 and it has 3-4 days over water so I bring it up to category 1, strong cat 1.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... hlight=off

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2007


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A FEW MODELS BRINGING
THE LOW TOWARD THE SE COAST. UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY IS SEEN IN THE
LONG RANGE FAVOR THE DRY HPC SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH LOW PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY GIVEN THE SURFACE-H85 HIGH MOVING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. THIS COULD DRASTICALLY
CHANGE IF THE LOW DEEPENS AND CAN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 312/8.html

Gfs/Gfdl fsu model shows the low "C" at 30 north/78 west. In which case is near where I would put the center of this. It is on the west side of the deeper convection. Yes its broad but this is a more defined area starting to develop with in there. In I think is the best chance for developing a cyclone.

This model is very interesting in track. This thing could do anything right now. I think a very slow movement for the next few days. After that it has to do with how much ridging forms north of it.

Also there is enough tchp in this area to support a cat3. If not a 4. But that does not mean that will happen. We have to get a organized system to form first then we will need to watch how favorable the enviroment is.

[Coredesat]

I know it is not as much heat content as caribbean if it were I would forecast
category 2-3 range but since the gulf stream can still support category
1 and it has 3-4 days over water so I bring it up to category 1, strong cat 1.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... hlight=off

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2007


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A FEW MODELS BRINGING
THE LOW TOWARD THE SE COAST. UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY IS SEEN IN THE
LONG RANGE FAVOR THE DRY HPC SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST. BY THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FROM
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH LOW PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY GIVEN THE SURFACE-H85 HIGH MOVING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. THIS COULD DRASTICALLY
CHANGE IF THE LOW DEEPENS AND CAN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

Okay, that makes more sense to me now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm still an amateur but I do try to use heat content
and official nws discussion...