Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[flwxwatcher]

I see a definite, well-defined mid level rotation near 18N/58W. High pressure is now blocking it to the north. This should force it on a slightly north of west track for the next few days. Upper air environment doesn't look too bad for development. In fact, take a look at a WV loop. Nice upper-level high over the convection. If the convection tightens up a bit and increases over night then we may well have something more than a disturbance to deal with in 24-36 hours.



It should track toward the Bahamas but it looks like the ridge to its north may weaken quite a bit as it approaches FL. Fairly strong cold front approaching the east coast next weekend could pick it up and turn it northward (think Floyd track 1999). But in this case it could reach FL before turning. No confidence in that yet, just a possibility.

WXMAN57.. agree.,right now it looks like it could go either way on if it will make Florida or take a Floyd type track or it could just mill around in the Bahamas waiting for the Steering flow too decide where to take it. Hopefully in the next few days the strength and timing of the Front forecast to be approaching the East Coast and the strength of the Atlantic ridge will start to become a little more clear.Interesting week ahead for the Bahamas and SE Coast it appears.

[shortwave]

Not sure how close to the surface... but clearly seeing a few outflow boundaries and not much more at this time than mid-level action...and no, not allowed to come to florida if it decides to develope.

[destruction92]

Note Wxman said it was a possibility -- but he is not sure yet. It could track into Florida first before turning...[/quote]

I thought he meant to say that it was "just a possibility" that 92L could affect Florida and that he was more certain about a Carolina threat or recurve.

Next weekend's cold front is going to be the strongest of the season...look at these low temperatures http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail ... 1?dayNum=6 ...30's in the NE and 50's in the Carolinas!

[MiamiensisWx]

Wxman57 just said that a Floyd scenario seems more likely than a Florida threat due to a VERY STRONG COLD FRONT next weekend.
Is Hyperstorm a professional met like Wxman57...otherwise, I would trust Wxman57 a little more.

I enjoy his good analyses, but I think it's too early to say it will be a Florida threat or a Floyd redux. He admits there are uncertainities with respect to the long-term upper-air pattern. The possible trough is seven days out, and we know things will change several times. If it's the GFS operational suite, I would be more cautious, especially because of the uncertainities involving the forward motion of 92L. Additionally, we should be patient and wait for actual development. I should note that I do see some 1999 similarities in the upper-air environment, so the entire Southeast should monitor 92L.

[destruction92]

Wxman57 just said that a Floyd scenario seems more likely than a Florida threat due to a VERY STRONG COLD FRONT next weekend.
Is Hyperstorm a professional met like Wxman57...otherwise, I would trust Wxman57 a little more.

I enjoy his good analyses, but I think it's too early to say it will be a Florida threat or a Floyd redux. He admits there are uncertainities with respect to the long-term upper-air pattern. The possible trough is seven days out, and we know things will change several times. If it's the GFS operational suite, I would be more cautious, especially because of the uncertainities involving the forward motion of 92L. Additionally, we should be patient and wait for actual development. I should note that I do see some 1999 similarities in the upper-air environment, so the entire Southeast should monitor 92L.

On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).

[Vortex]

will not pass outside herbert box..18.5/60W a good bet...

[wzrgirl1]

but remember the hebert box is only taken into account if the storm is already a major when passing through it

[destruction92]

will not pass outside herbert box..18.5/60W a good bet...

Out of curiosity, did Floyd pass through the Hebert Box?

[HollynLA]

Wxman57 just said that a Floyd scenario seems more likely than a Florida threat due to a VERY STRONG COLD FRONT next weekend.
Is Hyperstorm a professional met like Wxman57...otherwise, I would trust Wxman57 a little more.

I enjoy his good analyses, but I think it's too early to say it will be a Florida threat or a Floyd redux. He admits there are uncertainities with respect to the long-term upper-air pattern. The possible trough is seven days out, and we know things will change several times. If it's the GFS operational suite, I would be more cautious, especially because of the uncertainities involving the forward motion of 92L. Additionally, we should be patient and wait for actual development. I should note that I do see some 1999 similarities in the upper-air environment, so the entire Southeast should monitor 92L.

On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).

I would never say this is UNLIKELY to affect Florida. Was that a typo? I think a threat to Florida is a real possibility with this one.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 just said that a Floyd scenario seems more likely than a Florida threat due to a VERY STRONG COLD FRONT next weekend.
Is Hyperstorm a professional met like Wxman57...otherwise, I would trust Wxman57 a little more.

Be careful to get my words right. I said it COULD be like a Floyd track, but this time we don't know yet if it reaches Florida before turning.

[fci]

Yeah I'll be watching it closely FCI........

what a surprise for some if this makes it to South Florida. I get the sense that many were thinking we may get off the hook this year...

You know me.
I'm still thinking that we will get off the hook.
I'm an eternal optimist.

[KWT]

The ridge does look like its going to weaken around 66hrs again as the frontal system digs down which may wlel allow this system to take a more northerly track but I don't think its quite strong enough to drag it back out NNE, maybe a NNW track after 72hrs if the weakness is as strong as progged, the models can overdo these, as we've seen quite a lot with Dean and Felix, esp the GFs as its slightly cold biased which suggests it overdigs troughs.

note also after 96-120hrs a new high forms in the Ne states, even if it does head northwards to miss the SE states it'll probably be sent back NW at that point.

the truth is EVERYWHERE should watch this system, from the N.caribbean up to NE USA.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

92L looking more impressive by the minute. Look at the loop and make a close-up on 92L and you will see the system establishing outflow and a vigorous MLC visible in the cloud rotation. Convection may decline b/c of DMIN coming up, but the system has the ingredients to become the next named storm in the Atlantic.

[JonathanBelles]

Somebody dig out the 2000 mile cone of doom j/k

My thoughts....I think this system can very well develop, just slowly. I think a TD is possible by tomorrow night, but not before then unless something changes.

[wxman57]

On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).

Note that the corollary to the Hebert Box theory doesn't exist. Paul Hebert found that the majority of major hurricanes that have hit south Florida have passed through this region. However, just because a system misses the box to the north doesn't mean it's not likely to hit south Florida. In this case, there may be a very strong ridge north of the disturbance until it reaches the Bahamas. South Florida is NOT out of the woods by any means, nor is the Gulf.

[destruction92]

Yeah I'll be watching it closely FCI........

what a surprise for some if this makes it to South Florida. I get the sense that many were thinking we may get off the hook this year...

You know me.
I'm still thinking that we will get off the hook.
I'm an eternal optimist.

At this point, I think it is safe to say that THERE WILL be a weakness in the ridge with the approaching cold front. Another thing safe to say is that next weekend's cold front WILL BE STRONG.

With these 2 factors in place, it is only a question when 92L will be picked up...unlike with Dean and Felix which were never forecast to feel the effects of a weakening ridge and approaching trough.

With this said, I think Floridians have enough evidence to be optimistic.
The Carolinas should be more concerned though.

[Ivanhater]

On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).

Note that the corollary to the Hebert Box theory doesn't exist. Paul Hebert found that the majority of major hurricanes that have hit south Florida have passed through this region. However, just because a system misses the box to the north doesn't mean it's not likely to hit south Florida. In this case, there may be a very strong ridge north of the disturbance until it reaches the Bahamas. South Florida is NOT out of the woods by any means, nor is the Gulf.

What a tease!

[Brent]

Yeah I'll be watching it closely FCI........

what a surprise for some if this makes it to South Florida. I get the sense that many were thinking we may get off the hook this year...

You know me.
I'm still thinking that we will get off the hook.
I'm an eternal optimist.

At this point, I think it is safe to say that THERE WILL be a weakness in the ridge with the approaching cold front. Another thing safe to say is that next weekend's cold front WILL BE STRONG.

With this 2 factors in place, it is only a question when 92L will be picked up...unlike with Dean and Felix which were never forecast to feel the effects of a weakening ridge and approaching trough.

With this said, I think Floridians have enough evidence to be optimistic.
The Carolinas should be more concerned though.

Well that's nice considering the storm is at least 5 days away.

Ugh, joy, a week of these type posts.

[Vortex]

Bottom line..It's the peak of the season with a developing system in a notorious area. I think the central bahamas as a strengthening cyclone is a good bet. At that point it continues wnw towards FL or it bends NW in response to the trough to the NW 50/50...

[KWT]

I think a landfalling system is a fairly decent bet. There is obviously a weakness but it does ease off somewhat after 96hrs as the new high eases off from the US, i don't think 92L will be quick enough to head NNE back out to sea with the trough.
however with these systems you never quite know, I'm firstly more interested in where the LLC forms.