South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 24P

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
wyq614
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 827
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
Contact:

South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 24P

#1 Postby wyq614 » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:15 am

Image
16.5S 164.1E

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Wednesday the 19th of March 2008

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

A low over the western Coral Sea is not likely to develop into a Tropical
Cyclone. A low further to the east of 160E has shown some developments in the
last 24 hours. The low may develop into a cyclone in the weekend and move
southeastwards
, and have no impact on Queensland weather.
Last edited by wyq614 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:12 am

Image

Looks very disorganized.
0 likes   

User avatar
wyq614
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 827
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
Contact:

#3 Postby wyq614 » Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:26 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.4S 164.6E
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF PORT-VILA, VANUATU. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A 182240Z
ASCAT PASS AND A 190708Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE
LIES IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDER THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST IS INDUCING FAVORABLE EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:52 am

Image

More convection.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: South Pacific Ocean - Invest 95P JTWC:POOR

#5 Postby P.K. » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:37 pm

This is now Tropical Disturbance 14F.

FQPS01 NFFN 191800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Mar 192000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Mar 201800 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD 14F [1005HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17S
164E. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 180
MILES OF THE CENTRE. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.


WEAK LOW L2 [1008HPA] NEAR 21S 164E SLOW MOVING.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1: 11S 160E 15S 166E 18S 166E TO TD SLOW MOVING.
POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 180 MILES OF CZ1.

TROUGH T1: FM TD TO 19S 165E 18S 170E 17S 176E TO L2 SLOW MOVING.
POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150 MILES OF T1.

TROUGH T2: FM L2 TO 23S 180 TO 25S 177W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY
IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 MILES OF
T2.

TROUGH T3: 10S 176E 15S 177W 20S 174W 25S 173W SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 MILES OF T3.

WEAK T4: 09S 164W 10S 155W 13S 145W 18S 135W SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
100 MILES OF T4.

OVER BROAD AREA SOUTH OF 15S AND WEST OF 175W, EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND UPTO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.

OVER BROAD AREA SOUTH OF 10S AND EAST OF 170W, EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND UPTO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
EASTERLY SWELL.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: South Pacific Ocean - Invest 95P JTWC:POOR

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:08 am

20/0830 UTC 18.6S 163.8E T1.5/1.5 95P -- South Pacific Ocean

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
164.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 164.2E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. A 192134Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF NEW
CALEDONIA BUT ALSO SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING, 30-40 KNOT WESTERLIES AND
A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 20S.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
SOUTH OF 19S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 1-2 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC
SHOW 10-15 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB (-1.4 MB FALLS
OVER PAST 24 HOURS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LLCC INTO A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:09 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 20/0912 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1004HPA] CENTRE NEAR 18.3S 163.5E AT
200600UTC MOVING SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING. POSITION POOR BASED
ON EIR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS IN AREAL
COVERAGE. SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY BECOMING ORGANISED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. 14F LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CENTRE IN
A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,HOWEVER,STRONG SHEAR SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. 14F REMAINS DETACHED TO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH LLCC
PARTIALLY EXPOSED.

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 IS MODERATE.

THERE ARE NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wyq614
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 827
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
Contact:

#8 Postby wyq614 » Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:09 am

the area of convection previously located near 17.9s
164.2e, is now located near 18.0s 163.4e, approximately 305 nm
northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery depicts a well-defined, consolidating low-level circulation
center (LLCC) with improved convective banding. A 200935z ssmis
image indicated a convective band north wrapping into the south-
east quadrant. Animated water vapor imagery indicates good pole-
Ward outflow enhanced by a midlatitude trough southeast of New
Caledonia. Upper level analysis indicates a generally favorable
environment for further development with weak vertical wind shear
and a mesoscale anticyclone over the LLCC. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. See ref a (wtps21
pgtw 201200) for further details. Based on the improved Consol-
idation over the past 12 hours and favorable environment, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#9 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:34 pm

Image

Image

20/1430 UTC 18.6S 163.5E T2.0/2.0 95P -- South Pacific Ocean

Should be upgraded soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 20, 2008 12:36 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 24P

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:29 pm

Image

Image

WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR/201151ZMAR2008//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.5S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8S 164.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.8S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 163.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 201429Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED
ON DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM PGTW AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEW
CALEDONIA. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS WELL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH NEW
CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES
WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF MID-LATITUDE
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE
LATER FORECAST TAUS AND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201151Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 201200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#12 Postby Chacor » Thu Mar 20, 2008 9:19 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 20/2250 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [998HPA] CENTRE NEAR 19.4S 164.3E AT
202100UTC MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
EIR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE LLCC
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT RIGHT UP TO MID-LEVEL
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER,STRONG SHEAR TO SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF AND UK] AGREE ON LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVING IT SOUTHWESTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS IS HIGH.

THERE ARE NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 21, 2008 4:30 pm

Image

Bye!
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests