Typhoon (Yutu) in WPAC

[Scorpion]

It really doesn't have the presentation of a Cat 4

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 201200Z MAY TO 220000Z MAY 2007.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE ALLOWED TY 02W TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 02W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF CHINA.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
C. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON THROUGH
TAU 12 AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE OUTFLOW LAYER OF
THIS POWERFUL STORM SHIELDS THE CORE AGAINST STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24 VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
PENETRATE TO THE STORM CORE, SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING STORM
INTENSITY AND INDUCING THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. BOTH INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAVE THE STORM A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW
BY TAU 36.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM AND ANALYSIS OF WIND FIELD DISTORTIONS TYPICALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago.

[Chacor]

Current position at 15Z: 20.3N, 135.9E.
Location of Okino Torishima Island: 20.4N, 136.0E.

Direct hit to come.

Forecast position at 24h: 24.0 139.9E.
Location of Iwo Jima: 24.8N, 141.3E.

Second direct hit?

[wxmann_91]

Per the Max Potential Hurricane Intensity maps, cold water does not lie far away. If the shear doesn't kill it, the cold water will. Still I am really surprised at how quickly this intensified in what I thought was an environment characterized by strong shear. Guess the polar outflow enhancement did the trick.

[HURAKAN]

Well formed eye.

[P.K.]

Pressure down another 5hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0702 YUTU (0702)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 20.8N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 170NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 24.5N 141.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 221800UTC 28.9N 148.7E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 231800UTC 32.6N 157.4E 270NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[HURAKAN]

Still looking good!!!

[Chacor]

I'm wondering what SAB is on. When both JTWC (T5.5) and AFWA (T6.0) dropped estimates, the SAB increased theirs to T6.5.

At 1800, the JTWC kept Yutu as a strong 120-kt Category 4 typhoon. And it still looks good.

[HURAKAN]

THE ROLLER COASTER IS NOW GOING DOWN.

Just quoting myself. I think I'm right at this time.

[HURAKAN]

The best moment!!

[Chacor]

Current conditions from RJAW/Iwo Jima:
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 KT) gusting to 73 MPH (63 KT)

Time in EDT (UTC), Temperature in F (C), Dew Pt in F (C), Pressure in inHg (hPa), Wind in mph, conditions
Latest 9 AM (13) May 21 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.47 (0998) E 47 heavy rain showers; mist
8 AM (12) May 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.50 (0999) E 44 heavy rain showers; mist
7 AM (11) May 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.65 (1004) E 30 heavy rain showers; mist
6 AM (10) May 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) E 24 rain showers; mist
5 AM (9) May 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) ESE 25 rain showers; mist
4 AM (8) May 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ESE 17

[Chacor]

Pressure on Iwo Jima is down to 991 hPa.

Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 55 MPH (48 KT) gusting to 79 MPH (69 KT)

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJAW.html



Amazingly, it still has one pixel of an eye.

[OuterBanker]

What a beauty. No offense, but what a great name. Right up there with Bob.

[Chacor]

Rapidly deteriorating conditions on Iwo Jima, pressure is down to 985 hPa and winds up to 53kt/61mph Gusting 86kt/99mph.

[Chacor]

1440Z:
ob RJAW 211440Z 06068GP99KT 1000 R07/1000D +SHRA BR FEW003 BKN005 OVC010CB 23/23 Q0977 RMK 1ST003 5ST005 8CB010 A2885 WIND 06068G100KT CB OHD MOV NE P/FR RI++

1500Z:

ob RJAW 211500Z 05066GP99KT 1000 R07/1000D +SHRA BR FEW003 BKN005 OVC010CB 23/23 Q0976 RMK 1ST003 5ST005 8CB010 A2885 WIND 05066G104KT CB OHD MOV NE P/RR RI++ FCST 1503 BECMG 1617 34060G90KT BECMG 1819 33040G60KT 3000 SHRA BR BECMG 2122 32030KT 5000 -SHRA BR SCT005ST BKN010CU

[Chacor]

2007.05.21 1504 UTC
Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 62 MPH (54 KT) gusting to 102 MPH (89 KT)

Either it's near the centre, hence the weakening winds, or Yutu is starting to move away from the island.

This is the JMA's 1400 UTC 24-hour chart in detail, you can see Iwo Jima immediately north of the centre at 14Z (with Chichi Jima further north):

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for posting those TAFs Chacor. I've spent the last 12 hours on a long haul flight from Hong Kong to London so have been out of the loop!

[Chacor]

The JTWC's 18Z warning confirms that most severe reading from RJAW was 66G104KT, 976 hPa.

Quickly becoming extratropical now:

[P.K.]

Yutu has been analysed to have formed 12 hours later than it did operationally. No change to the max winds or min pressure.

AXPQ20 RJTD 220100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0702 YUTU (0702)
PERIOD FROM MAY1506UTC TO MAY2500UTC
1506 8.1N 146.6E 1006HPA //KT 1512 8.2N 146.2E 1008HPA //KT
1518 8.4N 145.4E 1006HPA //KT 1600 8.9N 144.7E 1008HPA //KT
1606 9.0N 144.3E 1008HPA //KT 1612 9.0N 143.2E 1008HPA //KT
1618 8.8N 141.9E 1006HPA //KT 1700 8.9N 140.7E 1006HPA //KT
1706 9.3N 138.9E 1006HPA //KT 1712 9.8N 137.9E 1006HPA //KT
1718 10.5N 137.1E 1002HPA 35KT 1800 11.3N 136.2E 996HPA 45KT
1806 12.1N 134.9E 990HPA 55KT 1812 13.0N 133.8E 980HPA 60KT
1818 14.0N 133.0E 975HPA 65KT 1900 15.1N 132.5E 970HPA 70KT
1906 16.2N 132.2E 960HPA 80KT 1912 17.1N 132.3E 950HPA 85KT
1918 17.7N 132.7E 945HPA 90KT 2000 18.2N 133.4E 945HPA 90KT
2006 19.0N 134.3E 945HPA 90KT 2012 19.8N 135.3E 935HPA 95KT
2018 20.8N 136.5E 935HPA 95KT 2100 21.7N 137.8E 935HPA 95KT
2106 22.9N 139.2E 945HPA 90KT 2112 24.0N 140.7E 950HPA 90KT
2118 25.2N 142.5E 960HPA 80KT 2200 26.3N 144.6E 970HPA 70KT
2206 27.4N 146.6E 975HPA 65KT 2212 28.8N 149.5E 985HPA 50KT
2218 29.9N 152.8E 990HPA 45KT 2300 31.0N 156.0E 992HPA //KT
2306 31.3N 160.0E 1000HPA //KT 2312 32.7N 163.9E 1000HPA //KT
2318 34.4N 167.5E 994HPA //KT 2400 35.4N 170.3E 996HPA //KT
2406 36.2N 173.0E 994HPA //KT 2412 36.3N 175.7E 994HPA //KT
2418 36.4N 179.0E 998HPA //KT 2500 36.6N 177.0W 1004HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT MAY1506UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT MAY1718UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT MAY1806UTC
FROM STS TO TY AT MAY1818UTC
FROM TY TO STS AT MAY2212UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT MAY2218UTC
FROM TS TO L AT MAY2300UTC
OUT OF AREA AT MAY2500UTC=