Typhoon (Yutu) in WPAC

[whereverwx]

I think it's a possibility, primarily based on its visible presentation. I just noticed it one the satellite, and I didn't see a topic on it either.

[Chacor]

It's been weak for quite a while. SAB just downgraded it to TOO WEAK from T1.0. Couple of T1.5s and 1.0s from AFWA and JTWC as well, Currently FAIR, but I'm not expecting much.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Been keeping an eye on this for a couple of days. JMA have it listed as a low pressure area:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 146E WEST SLOWLY.

I saw this remark in the synoptic discussion from NWS Guam 14th May 1846Z

EVOLUTION OF 90W IN THE LATER PERIODS MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM.
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE MY
FORECAST FATE. RIGHT NOW...THE SHEAR TENDENCY IS DECREASING OVER
THE LLCC. ACTUAL VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS. NORTH OF
10...ENVIRONMENT MORE HOSTILE. THE GFS40 IS NOT BULLISH WITH
DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BUT THE NOGAPS HINTS AT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 10N140E AT TAU 60...AND LITERALLY
COOKS IT OFF BY TAU 84 NEAR 12N137E. DARN I SAY 02W? REALITY WILL
PROBABLY FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. KEY IS WHETHER
90W CAN GAIN LATITUDE. IF IT DOES...MONSOON TAIL CURRENTLY OVER
CHUUK SHOULD PIVOT NORTHWESTWARD OVER GUAM AND ROTA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TINIAN AND SAIPAN TOO FAR INTO THE DRIER AIR ONCE
AGAIN.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's some more information I just received in my inbox regarding 90W from NWS Guam:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM LST WED MAY 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED FAR SOUTH OF GUAM
IS DEVELOPING FAIRLY WELL AND JTWC HAS TAGGED SUSPECT AREA 90W A
FAIR POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REGARDING THE INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE...GFS KEEPS IT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM WITHOUT MUCH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. UKMET HOLDS THE CONVECTION FARTHER AWAY FROM
GUAM WATERS AND IT TOO DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH DEVELOPMENT. 90W INVEST
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH YAP. NGPS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH GFS AND
BRINGS MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF GUAM. GFS...NGPS...UKMET AND ECMWF
BRING IN MOISTURE TONIGHT. KEPT THE ZONES SPLIT AS LIKELIHOOD OF
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS WITH GUAM COASTAL WATERS.

Plus I just received this too:

TPPN10 KGWC 150626
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SE OF GUAM
B. 15/0531Z (27)
C. 7.8N/5
D. 146.0E/1
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS/STT: D1.5/06HRS -14/2331Z-G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO PTLY SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN TO SHOW RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
VAN SCHAICK

[Typhoon Hunter]

Upgraded!

Now a tropical depression - here's the latest JMA warning:

WARNING AND SUMMARY 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPAAT 08.8N 146.5E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

This could be the sysem that the NOGAPS model has been predicting to form SE of Guam over the past few days.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 151021Z MAY 07//
WTPN21 PGTW 151030
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151021Z MAY 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 151030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 145.7E TO 11.6N 142.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 150830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 145.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161030Z.
//

[P.K.]

I was just looking at the Tokyo site and noticed the 50kt wind from TCs probablity maps. These are new on the RSMC Tokyo site aren't they?

[Chacor]

I was just looking at the Tokyo site and noticed the 50kt wind from TCs probablity maps. These are new on the RSMC Tokyo site aren't they?

Yeah, they're new. Also looks like Tokyo no longer carries old storms.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Peter I think those maps are new, or maybe they were only available on the Japanese site before?!?

Some of the satellite analysis coming into my inbox now have T number of 3:

666
TPPN10 KGWC 151215
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SE OF GUAM
B. 15/1131Z (27)
C. 9.1N/0
D. 145.4E/4
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -15/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO PTLY SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. PT AND MET
AGREE.

HEATH

[Chacor]

T3.0 already? Sheesh.

[HURAKAN]

T3.0 already? Sheesh.

15/1433 UTC 8.9N 144.2E T1.5/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean

Code: Select all

West Pacific Ocean Basin: Imagery Bulletin
 
   DATE/TIME     LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION        STORM
  15/1433 UTC     8.9N  144.2E    T1.5/1.5              90W
  15/0833 UTC     8.5N  145.2E    T1.5/1.5              90W
  14/2033 UTC     8.2N  146.8E    TOO WEAK              90W
  14/1433 UTC     8.4N  147.5E    T1.0/1.0              90W



T1.5 is the latest and 3.0 has never been assigned, so far, to this system.

[P.K.]

These are different agencies Hurakan. The last one was also a T3.0.

TPPN10 KGWC 151528
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM
B. 15/1431Z (27)
C. 9.1N/0
D. 144.5E/4
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -15/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO PTLY SBC/ANMTN.

HEATH

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

064
TPPN10 PGTW 160021

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM

B. 15/2330Z

C. 8.3N/1

D. 143.8E/6

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/2.0/S1.5/30HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS (15/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. NO MET. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[Chacor]

Next name on the list is Yutu.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Oh yeah, classic signature of a developing system right there. What's the synoptic setup look like? Is Yutu-to-be headed for the Philipenes, Japan, or the Gulf of Alaska?

[Coredesat]

From most recent NWS Guam AFD:

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS BECOME THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS TAKE THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TOWARDS YAP. DO NOT THINK THAT THE MARIANAS WILL HAVE
ANYTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

[wxmann_91]

It's got good shape to it - but it has to fight dry air.

[Chacor]

And shear above 10N is near 20kt or so.