Tropical Depression Barbara Advisories

[AnnularCane]

She looks beautiful this morning.

Better change the thread title back to tropical storm!

[JonathanBelles]

She looks like shes a survivor, but can she survive mexico?

[WmE]

She looks like shes a survivor, but can she survive mexico?

Probably not as it is forecast to cross the country lenghtwise. (at least on NRL)

But definitly Barb is looking better right now.

[JonathanBelles]

what do you mean by lenghtwise?

[WmE]

I meant that track.

However the NHC is official, so you're right.

[Chacor]

Up to 45 kts.

WTPZ32 KNHC 011740
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..BARBARA A LITTLE STRONGER...
..OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA WESTWARD
TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER OR ABOUT
215 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...13.3 N...94.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on that track above...is it possible that this crosses over into the BOC after hitting Mexico and becomes an issue in the GOM?

[somethingfunny]

Based on that track above...is it possible that this crosses over into the BOC after hitting Mexico and becomes an issue in the GOM?

That doesn't seem too likely considering the forecast cone has always had a NW tilt to it in the coming days, but wouldn't that be something...first week of June and already dealing with Chantal!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on that track above...is it possible that this crosses over into the BOC after hitting Mexico and becomes an issue in the GOM?

That doesn't seem too likely considering the forecast cone has always had a NW tilt to it in the coming days, but wouldn't that be something...first week of June and already dealing with Chantal!

yeah, that's why I asked. It would be crazy if that were to happen. Imagine the media hype! lol.

[Chacor]

01/1745 UTC 13.0N 94.6W T3.0/3.0 BARBARA -- East Pacific Ocean

[MGC]

Barb might just cross over into the BOC. It is a long shot but possible. Latest track from the NHC brings Barb close to the BOC...MGC

[cycloneye]

602
WTPZ42 KNHC 012041
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT ARRIVED JUST AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THIS MORNING ADVISORY DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES. SINCE THEN THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL BARBARA
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENT DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INFLUENCING
BARBARA'S CURRENT MOTION AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
065/4. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS AND
UKMET MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT PICK UP THE
STORM. THEY KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD IN
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF...
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS TRACK THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. HOWEVER...THESE MODELS KEEP A MID-LEVEL CENTER OFFSHORE
WHICH THEY EVENTUALLY TURN WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF THE ECMF...NOGAPS...AND GFDL. THE NHC TRACK ASSUMES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST. IF THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT MAKE LANDFALL IT MAY VERY WELL TURN BACK WEST AS INDICATED BY
THE GFS AND UKMET.

BARBARA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS BRING THE SYSTEM TO 60 KT
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AS
INTERACTION WITH LAND MAY INHIBIT STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE
FORECAST. IF BARBARA REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION COULD BE TOO LOW.

THE NEW TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WAS ALSO EXTENDED WESTWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 13.4N 94.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.8N 93.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 14.6N 93.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 15.2N 93.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 15.8N 93.4W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 93.8W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

Barb might just cross over into the BOC. It is a long shot but possible. Latest track from the NHC brings Barb close to the BOC...MGC

Just noticed that, yikes.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 012340
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GUATEMALA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA
WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BARRA DE TONALA TO SALINA
CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES...190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER
OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ
MEXICO.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...13.7 N...93.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 020243
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...BARBARA HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA
WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BARRA DE TONALA TO SALINA
CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...350 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...13.9 N...93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

297
WTPZ42 KNHC 020250
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE
PASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS
ARE EVIDENT AS WELL APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0 (45 KT)...AND
SO WILL THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND INITIAL MOTION IS
SET AT 065/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN SPLIT AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF...GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN LONG ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY PARALLEL
THE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...GFS...CANADIAN CONSENSUS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LANDFALL...HOWEVER...IF BARBARA REMAINS OFFSHORE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.9N 93.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 14.4N 92.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.3N 92.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 16.2N 91.6W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[Cyclenall]

Candice Batista on The Weather Network in Canada said tropical storm Barbara has "made landfall". How are these people getting away with making up information? Just 30 minutes earlier then that, someone else said that Barbara was going to make landfall tonight. I don't understand how misinformation like that gets out on national TV. This is like the umpteenth time that wrong information was told on TV.

[somethingfunny]

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 020830
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...BARBARA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA
WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COASTLINE AT THE
BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL BARBARA MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...92.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020831
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007

AN 0612Z TRMM PASS JUST IN CONFIRMS THAT BARBARA REMAINS BASICALLY
ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/7. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT
ON WHETHER BARBARA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK INLAND...OR
MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN AND PERHAPS PARALLEL THE COAST OFFSHORE. IN
SOME CASES EVEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE ECMWF...FOR
EXAMPLE...TAKES THE 850 MB CENTER INLAND BUT THE 500 MB CENTER
WESTWARD. THERE ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOME TRACKER ISSUES IN THE GFDL
MODEL WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD BE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL
INDICATE A BASIC CONTINUATION OF THE TRACK INLAND. THE TRMM PASS
DID SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE SEPARATION
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.

THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED MUCH...
ALTHOUGH I HAVE REDUCED THE WIND RADII BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT
PASS. A WINDSAT PASS BACK AT 2339Z SHOWED GOOD BANDING AND A
LOW-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST TRMM IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT
BARBARA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45
KT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 14.4N 92.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 92.5W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0600Z 15.6N 92.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

343
WTPZ32 KNHC 021137
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007

...BARBARA MEANDERING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA
WESTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM BARRA DE TONALA WESTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM...WEST OF THE COASTLINE AT THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND GUATEMALA.

BARBARA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME VERY SOON. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING BARBARA
ONSHORE NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...92.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

711
WTPZ42 KNHC 021445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER OF
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER WAS NEARING THE COAST. SINCE THEN....AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
OF A 1154 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS VERY
NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE DATA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ALSO SUPPORT
THE LANDFALL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO MADERO REPORTED 31 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 46 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.4 MB. A SECOND
OBSERVATION AT TAPACHULA MEXICO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005.1 MB.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST IS THAT SOME MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER COULD GET LEFT BEHIND. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND ASSUMES THAT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE
MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.

IF BARBARA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.8N 92.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 15.6N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/1200Z 16.5N 91.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA