322
WTPZ42 KNHC 310254
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007
THE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...RELEGATING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ONE CLUSTER VERY
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE BOTH COME DOWN TO 2.5 BUT A BLEND OF THE CI VALUES
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 40 KT. BARBARA FELL
IN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS TONIGHT...SO THERE IS NOTHING TO
CONFIRM OR DENY THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE. NOT ONLY ARE
THERE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE PRIMARY DYNAMICAL
MODELS...THE ENSEMBLES BASED ON INDIVIDUAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TOO. FOR EXAMPLE...THE CONTROL
RUN OF THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTS BARBARA TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO MOVE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA IN LESS
THAN 72 HOURS...WHILE ITS VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCLUDE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACKS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN ADAMANT ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...HAS
DRAMATICALLY SHIFTED AND NOW FORECASTS A RELATIVELY BRISK
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE ON DAYS 4
AND 5. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE IN BETWEEN...BUT
THEY LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ALL OF THE MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING GIVES ME LITTLE
JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN ANY DIRECTION...SO IT
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS TRACK IS SLOW
SOUTHWARD FOR A DAY OR SO...THEN SLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A SUBTLE WESTWARD BEND ON DAYS 4
AND 5 WHEN THE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH HAS REACHED THE CENTER OF BARBARA...WITH
THE ANTICIPATED INHIBITING EFFECTS ON THE INTENSITY. THAT PATTERN
SHOULD GRADUALLY ABATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BARBARA
WILL STILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 13.0N 96.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 12.6N 96.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 12.4N 96.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 12.7N 96.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 13.1N 96.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 96.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 96.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 15.5N 97.5W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Tropical Depression Barbara Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression Barbara Advisories
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:05 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/BARBARA.shtml?
Here are the past advisories of Barbara in case anyone is interested.
Here are the past advisories of Barbara in case anyone is interested.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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AnnularCane
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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 310837
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
0900 UTC THU MAY 31 2007
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BARBARA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.7W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.7W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.7W
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 310836
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
BARBARA CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SHOW THE EXACT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM
SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 00Z-03Z SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...SO THE INITIAL
POSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS NUDGED THAT WAY. THIS YIELDS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 130/2. BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
PACIFIC...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE GULF TROUGH TO AMPLIFY WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THE
NEXT 48 HR...THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BARBARA AFTER THAT
TIME. THE GFDL... UKMET...ECMWF...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
BRING BARBARA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 72 HR OR
LESS...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR THE STORM TO PERFORM A LOOP AND MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION
IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE ADJUSTED POSITION... THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HOWEVER...IT SLOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS
THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 96 HR. AS THE GULF SYSTEM
MOVED AWAY...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE NORTH OF BARBARA AND TURN THE
CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD...ASSUMING THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE BY
THAT TIME. THIS TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
BARBARA IS IN A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...WITH
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEING UNDERCUT BY NORTHERLY FLOW
AT A SOMEWHAT LOWER LEVEL. OVERALL...THE STORM HAS POOR OUTFLOW
AND SEEMS TO BE LOSING INFLOW TO THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM. THESE
FACTORS HAVE LIKELY SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH THE GFDL CALLING FOR
BARBARA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECAST SLOWER INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CALLING FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE COAST.
HEAVY RAINS NOW OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE NOT
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA. INSTEAD...THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE
TO THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE RESULTING NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 13.2N 96.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 12.9N 96.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 12.8N 96.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 96.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 13.8N 96.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 96.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 96.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 98.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ22 KNHC 310837
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
0900 UTC THU MAY 31 2007
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BARBARA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.7W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.7W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 96.7W
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 310836
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
BARBARA CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SHOW THE EXACT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM
SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 00Z-03Z SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...SO THE INITIAL
POSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS NUDGED THAT WAY. THIS YIELDS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 130/2. BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
PACIFIC...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE GULF TROUGH TO AMPLIFY WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THE
NEXT 48 HR...THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BARBARA AFTER THAT
TIME. THE GFDL... UKMET...ECMWF...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
BRING BARBARA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 72 HR OR
LESS...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR THE STORM TO PERFORM A LOOP AND MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION
IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE ADJUSTED POSITION... THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HOWEVER...IT SLOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS
THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 96 HR. AS THE GULF SYSTEM
MOVED AWAY...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE NORTH OF BARBARA AND TURN THE
CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD...ASSUMING THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE BY
THAT TIME. THIS TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
BARBARA IS IN A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...WITH
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEING UNDERCUT BY NORTHERLY FLOW
AT A SOMEWHAT LOWER LEVEL. OVERALL...THE STORM HAS POOR OUTFLOW
AND SEEMS TO BE LOSING INFLOW TO THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM. THESE
FACTORS HAVE LIKELY SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH THE GFDL CALLING FOR
BARBARA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECAST SLOWER INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CALLING FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE COAST.
HEAVY RAINS NOW OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE NOT
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA. INSTEAD...THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE
TO THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE RESULTING NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 13.2N 96.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 12.9N 96.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 12.8N 96.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 96.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 13.8N 96.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 96.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 96.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 98.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Still forecast to become a land threatening hurricane despite the current poor environment.
The models diverge and the confidence level with this forecast is low. An accurate forecast 48 hours before landfall is usually the key to successful preparedness. The public has time to get the news through the media and respond.
Looks like the NHC is concerned about the threat of a prolonged wind and rain scenario with the coastal areas.
The models diverge and the confidence level with this forecast is low. An accurate forecast 48 hours before landfall is usually the key to successful preparedness. The public has time to get the news through the media and respond.
Looks like the NHC is concerned about the threat of a prolonged wind and rain scenario with the coastal areas.
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SkeetoBite
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Andrew92
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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 311456
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
1500 UTC THU MAY 31 2007
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BARBARA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 96.0W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.7N 96.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.1N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 95.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 95.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ22 KNHC 311456
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
1500 UTC THU MAY 31 2007
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BARBARA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 95.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 96.0W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.7N 96.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.1N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 95.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 95.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Andrew92
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311456
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
BARBARA APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES JUST RECEIVED...SUGGEST
THAT ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE LOSING DEFINITION WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ. BARBARA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE STRUCTURE
OR BANDING. DVORAK T NUMBERS AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
BARBARA HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST TURNS ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS
BETWEEN BARBARA AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON THIS QUESTION. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER... TAKING BARBARA INTO GUATEMALA OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GFS DRIFTS BARBARA SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE
THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER OR NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE GULF TROUGH MOVES OUT...RISING HEIGHTS OVER MEXICO COULD TURN
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF BARBARA IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW...WHILE QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING LIMITED LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE ITCZ LATER TODAY. IF IT
SURVIVES...HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH IT NOW SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAT
BARBARA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 13.1N 95.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 13.4N 96.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 13.7N 96.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 14.1N 95.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 14.8N 95.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
On the way down, perhaps?
WTPZ42 KNHC 311456
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
BARBARA APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES JUST RECEIVED...SUGGEST
THAT ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE LOSING DEFINITION WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ. BARBARA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE STRUCTURE
OR BANDING. DVORAK T NUMBERS AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
BARBARA HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST TURNS ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS
BETWEEN BARBARA AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON THIS QUESTION. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER... TAKING BARBARA INTO GUATEMALA OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GFS DRIFTS BARBARA SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE
THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER OR NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE GULF TROUGH MOVES OUT...RISING HEIGHTS OVER MEXICO COULD TURN
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF BARBARA IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW...WHILE QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING LIMITED LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE ITCZ LATER TODAY. IF IT
SURVIVES...HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH IT NOW SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAT
BARBARA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 13.1N 95.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 13.4N 96.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 13.7N 96.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 14.1N 95.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 14.8N 95.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
On the way down, perhaps?
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
They no longer forecast Barbara to become a hurricane.
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139059
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ42 KNHC 312032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT
BEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...IS
105/4...AS BARBARA APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 12.9N 95.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 94.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 94.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 94.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 95.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 95.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT
BEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE
BUT POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...IS
105/4...AS BARBARA APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 12.9N 95.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 94.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 94.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 94.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 95.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 95.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Please change the title to Tropical Depression Barbara now 
.
As we can all see, Barbara may have gotten overwelmed by the ITCZ and the NHC thinks the same:
Oh that's just lovely!
Another lame TC for the Epac to add. It was once forecast to reach category 2 strength and now we're wondering if it can even reach a mid-TS.
.
As we can all see, Barbara may have gotten overwelmed by the ITCZ and the NHC thinks the same:
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF
IT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT
THIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON
CONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL
CONVECTION.
Oh that's just lovely!
Another lame TC for the Epac to add. It was once forecast to reach category 2 strength and now we're wondering if it can even reach a mid-TS.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139059
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
561
WTPZ42 KNHC 010230
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF
IT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT
THIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON
CONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD OR 090 AT 2 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BASE OF A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...
BARBARA...IF IT SURVIVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS BASICALLY THE
SOLUTION FROM GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED WHEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO BEGINS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.9N 95.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.9N 94.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 94.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 94.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 94.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 95.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.3N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ42 KNHC 010230
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF
IT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT
THIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON
CONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD OR 090 AT 2 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BASE OF A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...
BARBARA...IF IT SURVIVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS BASICALLY THE
SOLUTION FROM GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED WHEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO BEGINS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.9N 95.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.9N 94.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 94.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 94.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 94.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 95.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.3N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2634
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Looks like the NHC isn't either.-
Mike Doran
Spaceweather/electrics
has an interesting bit about solar activity yesterday that matched the peak of the storm. The idea is that electron density in the ionosphere increases from the xrays of the solar activity. Go to Spaceweather.com for the more complete explaination or see this link: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_24h.gif
This then allows a more organized static coupling about the storm--so the theory of geo electrics and tropical storms would state.
http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/WWLL ... as_BIG.gif
You can see real time this at the UW site if you catch it soon--I have saved it on my computer if you missed it and I will email it to you.
***********
Not About Love
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krTE0AJkqj4
This is a vid where a pretty good comedy guy is lip synching Fiona Apple's lastest. I bring it up because you may read me mouthing the ideas of Jim Hughes and solar winds. I know that in the past the policy has been to exclude Jim's ideas here. I am not sure why such a silly policy would exist--but let me give it some cause for pausing it.
Tropical storms are THE most significant electrical events on earth and their intensity depends on electrics. Yesterday Barbara's peak matched a solar burst. There are many additional examples and I guess what's the point in talking tropics if you can't use all the tools on the belt when they are the best tools you have.
I realize electrics theory is going to garner controversy. I understand that. I could show you the physics calculations regarding solar currents against the huge resistances of the atmosphere. But I suspect youtube will also garner controversy--because it's new. But we can take and pass around old ideas in new reference frames--and why not? And then there are explainations, like the Stanford paper on electron precipitation and Isabel that gives new insights on the space water problem in relation to tropical storms. Recent developments in the science can outpace you if you are not open to new ideas.
Why space weather? Why not? Especially with new tools like UW's strike and IR real time movies. You get a reading from space, then watch the strikes and comment. This is the essence of science. Observe and try to understand. Report and share ideas.
If not here, elsewhere . . . where ever the truth can be witnessed. And basically if Jim or others cannot post about space weather and electrics here, I will not post here. I won't. As much as I love Mike Watkins I'll buy my own streaming audio and start posting some of the conversations I have had with leading climatologists elsewhere. And I mean no disrespect to the meteorologists who post here--I will have my father, a retired meteorologist, on my show. But I would much rather share and exchange without threat of censorship, censorship being different than moderating . . . and if you can't tell the difference, it's another reason to go elsewhere. Because at the end of the day a good idea is like cream churning--the butter rises to the top. Truth has a way like that.
And if truth is a threat to you that leads to flaming controversy than what you are about is not the truth. You are about something comfortable like an old shoe or an old pair of blue jeans. Comfort in the familiar.
This then allows a more organized static coupling about the storm--so the theory of geo electrics and tropical storms would state.
http://webflash.ess.washington.edu/WWLL ... as_BIG.gif
You can see real time this at the UW site if you catch it soon--I have saved it on my computer if you missed it and I will email it to you.
***********
Not About Love
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krTE0AJkqj4
This is a vid where a pretty good comedy guy is lip synching Fiona Apple's lastest. I bring it up because you may read me mouthing the ideas of Jim Hughes and solar winds. I know that in the past the policy has been to exclude Jim's ideas here. I am not sure why such a silly policy would exist--but let me give it some cause for pausing it.
Tropical storms are THE most significant electrical events on earth and their intensity depends on electrics. Yesterday Barbara's peak matched a solar burst. There are many additional examples and I guess what's the point in talking tropics if you can't use all the tools on the belt when they are the best tools you have.
I realize electrics theory is going to garner controversy. I understand that. I could show you the physics calculations regarding solar currents against the huge resistances of the atmosphere. But I suspect youtube will also garner controversy--because it's new. But we can take and pass around old ideas in new reference frames--and why not? And then there are explainations, like the Stanford paper on electron precipitation and Isabel that gives new insights on the space water problem in relation to tropical storms. Recent developments in the science can outpace you if you are not open to new ideas.
Why space weather? Why not? Especially with new tools like UW's strike and IR real time movies. You get a reading from space, then watch the strikes and comment. This is the essence of science. Observe and try to understand. Report and share ideas.
If not here, elsewhere . . . where ever the truth can be witnessed. And basically if Jim or others cannot post about space weather and electrics here, I will not post here. I won't. As much as I love Mike Watkins I'll buy my own streaming audio and start posting some of the conversations I have had with leading climatologists elsewhere. And I mean no disrespect to the meteorologists who post here--I will have my father, a retired meteorologist, on my show. But I would much rather share and exchange without threat of censorship, censorship being different than moderating . . . and if you can't tell the difference, it's another reason to go elsewhere. Because at the end of the day a good idea is like cream churning--the butter rises to the top. Truth has a way like that.
And if truth is a threat to you that leads to flaming controversy than what you are about is not the truth. You are about something comfortable like an old shoe or an old pair of blue jeans. Comfort in the familiar.
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Mike Doran
links
Here's the stanford paper
http://nova.stanford.edu/~vlf/publications/2005-04.pdf
and larger visual of Isabel with IR and strikes as studied in this Stanford paper:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/atlight.jpg
Note the core strikes--which is something I will talk about at a later time.
Yesterday's xray burst per http://www.spaceweather.com is different from a solar wind--which is relatively low at this point in time. One is a high energy light and the solar wind is a wind of ions.
The high energy light splits the O2 in the atmosphere and creates ozone and free electrons. The context of the solar wind, OTOH, in the Stanford paper is with lightning strikes electrons are precipitated and those same electrons then face a blowing space wind of ions that make it more difficult for them to re enter the atmosphere and couple with static fields below them. So a high solar wind is hard on the electrical organizations that produce tropical storms.
The movie image linked above from UW (university of washington) is much better to see things like the burst of strikes and intensifications in the region of convection about 8-10 hours ago--particularly along a front of thunderstorms in the mid CONUS. Last year all we would have had is this link:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp
There is a bit of a diurnal aspect to this you can see from the UW link. I would expect similar diurnal intensifications of Barbara in the next two-three days to landfall. In the context of the whole region, the western GOM is strongly coupled and that is going to be good news for drought and rain starved Florida. The SOI index is rising, too, so the region should see an intensification of the whole organization on a larger regional scale.
http://nova.stanford.edu/~vlf/publications/2005-04.pdf
and larger visual of Isabel with IR and strikes as studied in this Stanford paper:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/atlight.jpg
Note the core strikes--which is something I will talk about at a later time.
Yesterday's xray burst per http://www.spaceweather.com is different from a solar wind--which is relatively low at this point in time. One is a high energy light and the solar wind is a wind of ions.
The high energy light splits the O2 in the atmosphere and creates ozone and free electrons. The context of the solar wind, OTOH, in the Stanford paper is with lightning strikes electrons are precipitated and those same electrons then face a blowing space wind of ions that make it more difficult for them to re enter the atmosphere and couple with static fields below them. So a high solar wind is hard on the electrical organizations that produce tropical storms.
The movie image linked above from UW (university of washington) is much better to see things like the burst of strikes and intensifications in the region of convection about 8-10 hours ago--particularly along a front of thunderstorms in the mid CONUS. Last year all we would have had is this link:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/js ... plorer.jsp
There is a bit of a diurnal aspect to this you can see from the UW link. I would expect similar diurnal intensifications of Barbara in the next two-three days to landfall. In the context of the whole region, the western GOM is strongly coupled and that is going to be good news for drought and rain starved Florida. The SOI index is rising, too, so the region should see an intensification of the whole organization on a larger regional scale.
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WTPZ32 KNHC 011452
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007
..BARBARA REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
..HEADING FOR EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO
HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA WESTWARD
TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER OR ABOUT
225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.
BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEMS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...13.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007
..BARBARA REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
..HEADING FOR EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO
HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA WESTWARD
TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER OR ABOUT
225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.
BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEMS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...13.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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