TD 3E - Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread

[Regit]

As the official word from the NHC is that this is TD 3E, discussion can continue here.


000
WOPZ41 KNHC 111507
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED 465 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS FORMED INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

Wonder how soon "shortly" is, it's been 20 minutes.

[JonathanBelles]

I dont see an advisory yet, What is taking so long?

[AnnularCane]

Probably in the next 20 minutes or so. EPAC advisories tend to be late for some reason. At least that is how it has always seemed to me.

[Chacor]

Maybe she's waiting for 9 PDT...

[WindRunner]

I dont see an advisory yet, What is taking so long?

They usually have about three hours to do an advisory package, so throwing one together in about 45 minutes (they probably started about 20mins before the STDS, in order to make sure it warrented classification) is no easy task. It'll come out when they're ready . . . though it does always seem to be longer in the EPAC . . .

[WindRunner]

Sure isn't optimistic . . .

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007
900 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2007

EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN MONITORED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1302 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS AND AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE
INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E.

ALLOWING FOR SOME REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48
HOURS. AT THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS A
RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1600Z 15.7N 110.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 16.2N 111.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.7N 115.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 14/1200Z 17.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111541
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007
1600 UTC MON JUN 11 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.7W AT 11/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.7W AT 11/1600Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.7N 115.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.5N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 110.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice big blow up near the center...Lets see if it is enough to get it upgraded at 2am pst.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007
800 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007

AFTER FADING EARLIER...A NEW BALL OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE
DEPRESSION. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS NEW BURST OF
CONVECTION. THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THIS
SYSTEM POSSIBLY HAVING MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTED BY A 2034Z AQUA MICROWAVE
PASS...SO THE DEPRESSION IS REPOSITIONED POLEWARD ON THIS PACKAGE.

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DEPRESSION ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM-STRENGTH. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE DEPRESSION HAS CROSSED THE 79F ISOTHERM WITH
COOLER WATERS NOT FAR AWAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
PERHAPS WITH HELP FROM THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER IN
LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 315/9. A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS TEMPORARILY CAUSING A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INITIATING THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION. THE WEAKNESS FILLS IN TOMORROW AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS...WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE CENTER
RELOCATION...BUT IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 112.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 18.4N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 13/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 18.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

[Chacor]

12/0600 UTC 17.4N 112.4W T1.5/2.0 03E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120837
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FOLLOWING AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. WHILE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS PROVIDED LITTLE ASSISTANCE IN DETERMINING THE CENTER
CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...A 0322Z TRMM PASS AND A 0130Z QUIKSCAT
PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...AT BEST.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LOSING THE LITTLE STEAM IT HAD.
SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CYCLONE...AND THE CHANCE FOR IT TO INTENSIFY TO A STORM HAS
ESSENTIALLY DIMINISHED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...IN
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WEAKENS THE
DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER IF THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...THE DISSIPATING PROCESS COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS CAUSED A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL EAST-
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE...OR
WHAT'S LEFT OF IT...IS STEERED TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS OR
SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.7N 112.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 113.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 115.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.1N 116.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

Not quite sure what CIMSS is on right now...

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.9 3.2

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Weakening flag was on earlier. Wonder what they're seeing that tells them 03E isn't weakening right now.

[HURAKAN]

It may not be weakening, but surely isn't intensifying either.

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 121438
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007

INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DENSE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE PATH OF
THE CYCLONE WHICH SUGGESTS A STABLE AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM WILL SOON
BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEG C. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN
24 HOURS...OR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8 BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS PREDICTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS
REMNANT LOW...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 18.1N 113.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 116.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New % chance of Tropical Depression 3-E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 5%
Hurricane: 0.3%
Major Hurricane: 0.03%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.002%

*The % chance rapidly goes down because of the unfavorable conditions.

What a crappy tropical cyclone that looked amazing when it was not even called a TC! I think there was the chance it was a TS on Sunday when it had an excellent appearence. I hate it when depressions don't become named storms!

[HURAKAN]

I'm with you in the last opinion. Also I hate when a 70 mph storm doesn't become a hurricane!!!

[Chacor]

Poof!

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130227
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO LACK DEEP CONVECTION AND NO LONGER MEETS
THE REQUIREMENTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THREE-E AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 19.1N 115.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.4N 116.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.7N 117.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1200Z 19.7N 119.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 19.7N 121.0W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Weatherfreak000]

Aha! The first Depression only system forms!



We're REALLY getting into the thick of things now ladies and gents...


(wishing myself a happy 800 with this post)