Tropical Storm Toraji (3w)-South China Sea

[Chacor]

Waiting for the JMA's 12Z...

[Chacor]

Still a TD...

457
FKPQ30 RJTD 041200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070704/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 2
PSN: N1850 E10930
MOV: NNW 06KT
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 05/0000Z N1955 E10925
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 05/1200Z N2100 E10935
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20070704/1800Z =

[cycloneye]

Chacor,should I change the title of thread?

[WindRunner]

I took care of it, Luis. Now it shows the status from both.


12z from the Navy puts it back down to 30kts/1000hPa (per ATCF), after having made landfall on Hainan.

[cycloneye]

Ok my friend.

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH, JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON HAINAN ISLAND.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH CONVECTION NOW FLARING OVER THE LLCC. THE
PRIMARY INHIBITOR TO INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS HAS
BEEN PROXIMITY TO (AND MOST RECENTLY LANDFALL ON) HAINAN ISLAND.
B. TD 03W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT SIX KNOTS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES AS WELL AS RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED EAST OF TAIWAN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS HINDERED BY CONFLUENCE WITH THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN THE STANDARD, POLEWARD FLOW
PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
B. ORIENTATION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
WARD TRACK. TD 03W WILL REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND AND INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN. ONCE TD
03W CROSSES INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, INTENSIFICATION TO TS STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED WITH INFLOW HAMPERED BY THE PROXIMITY OF LAND. LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE REGION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. THE FORE-
CAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE AIDS DIVERGE WITH
NOGAPS REPRESENTING THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND GFS THE EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 19.1N 109.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 21.4N 109.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 19.4N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 20.7N 109.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[WindRunner]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 19.9N 109.2E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 21.6N 108.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT


No better per JMA, though NRL puts it back up to 35kts/998mb.

[Chacor]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0703 TORAJI (0703) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 20.2N 108.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHWEST 80NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 22.3N 107.9E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Chacor]

Toraji, by the way, was submitted by North Korea, and refers to "Broad bell flower"; platycodi radix.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (TORAJI) HAS
CROSSED THE ISLAND OF HAINAN AND MOVED INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN.
DURING THAT TIME, TS 03W WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND
THEN MAINTAINED INTENSITY, DESPITE INTERACTIONS WITH HAINAN.
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS MAINLY BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS.
B. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN OF 29 KNOTS. TS 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR CENTERED EAST OF TAIWAN. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BEING DISRUPTED BY THE
SURROUNDING LANDMASSES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 03W (TORAJI) REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 03W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. TS 03W WILL FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES OF WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FROM TAU 24, TS 03W WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
THEN COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET, WHICH IS THE WESTERN-
MOST OUTLIER.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Going to be a short-lived one, very close to landfall now...

123
FKPQ30 RJTD 050600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070705/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TORAJI
NR: 5
PSN: N2100 E10810
MOV: NNW 08KT
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 05/1800Z N2230 E10700 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: NIL
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/0600Z N2355 E10555 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: NIL
NXT MSG: 20070705/1200Z =

[Chacor]

Near landfall now.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0703 TORAJI (0703)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 21.3N 107.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH

FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 24.2N 105.8E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Chacor]

Landfall has been made around 12Z.

EDIT: FINAL ADVISORY FROM JTWC:

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (TORAJI) WARNING NR 006
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 21.4N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.3N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 107.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (TORAJI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL
IN NORTHEASTERN VIETNAM AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
25 TO 35 KNOTS. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER LAND AND WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE TAU 24. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

[P.K.]

BT is out for 0703.

AXPQ20 RJTD 020500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0703 TORAJI (0703)
PERIOD FROM JUL0300UTC TO JUL0600UTC
0300 15.4N 111.7E 1002HPA //KT 0306 16.5N 111.1E 1002HPA //KT
0312 17.5N 110.6E 1000HPA //KT 0318 17.9N 110.5E 998HPA //KT
0400 18.2N 110.3E 998HPA //KT 0406 18.5N 110.1E 996HPA 35KT
0412 19.0N 109.7E 996HPA 35KT 0418 19.6N 109.2E 994HPA 35KT
0500 20.2N 108.6E 994HPA 35KT 0506 21.0N 108.2E 994HPA 35KT
0512 21.4N 107.4E 994HPA 35KT 0518 22.2N 106.7E 996HPA //KT
0600 22.6N 105.2E 1000HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT JUL0300UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT JUL0406UTC
FROM TS TO TD AT JUL0518UTC
DISSIPATION AT JUL0606UTC=