Tropical Storm Toraji (3w)-South China Sea

[WindRunner]

When tropical depressions look like this . . . you know the JMA is getting desperate for some action.

WWJP25 RJTD 021800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN
WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST
CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 136E 36N 141E
42N 143E 51N 157E 60N 165E 60N 180E 38N 180E 38N 166E 38N 155E 28N
142E 29N 136E 33N 136E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 36N 143E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 30N 154E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 992 HPA AT 51N 158E NE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 07N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 15N 112E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1006 HPA AT 41N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 21N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 112E TO 33N 115E 33N 120E 33N 126E 35N 132E
34N 138E 36N 143E 36N 145E 35N 147E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Our "tropical depression" at the time of this summary looked like this:


Currently, no better:

This is invest 90W, which is discussed here.


Yet, an indiscriminate four-day-old swirl is still a "low pressure area":

FYI, GFS/CMC progs point to this system slightly deepening over the next 48 hours as it moves NW and makes landfall.
EDIT: Just saw that this was 92W on NRL.


The JMA never ceases to amaze . . . though, if I were in the WPAC right now, I'd be feeling a bit deprived myself.

[Cyclone1]

Oh ok, 92 makes much more sense. XD

[Cyclone1]

But wait.. the coordinates given for the depression are indeed the crappy "low pressure area".... What's up with that?

[Chacor]

The TD already has its own thread -
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95785

[Chacor]

But wait.. the coordinates given for the depression are indeed the crappy "low pressure area".... What's up with that?

TD = 90W, LPA = 92W.

[Cyclone1]

But wait.. the coordinates given for the depression are indeed the crappy "low pressure area".... What's up with that?

TD = 90W, LPA = 92W.

Oh, ok. Thanks.

[Chacor]

92W:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N 112E,
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SANHU
ISLAND INDICATE SLP NEAR 1002MB WITH A 2MB DECREASE IN SLP OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 022149Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED A WEAK LLCC
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND WITH SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[WindRunner]

Tehe, there we go. I knew that would happen if I didn't wait for their 00z summary

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 15.5N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 17.8N 109.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[P.K.]

Down to 1000hPa.

WWJP25 RJTD 031800 CCA
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 18.3N 110.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 140E 42N 140E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 38N 165E 33N 160E 33N
150E 33N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 34N 125E EAST 30 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 59N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 148E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 55N 165E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 24N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 112E TO 32N 118E 34N 125E 32N 132E 35N 140E
33N 145E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 158E TO 42N 169E 48N 178E 48N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[WindRunner]

QS shows this quite nicely.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 040130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/040121ZJUL2007//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6N 111.4E TO 21.6N 108.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 05 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 032330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3N 110.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
111.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.5E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
032235Z SSMI IMAGE REVEAL A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS NOW CON-
SOLIDATING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HAINAN ISLAND INDICATE SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN MORE THAN 5 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THOUGH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED
ON CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050130Z.//
NNNN

[WindRunner]

No change from JMA.

WWJP25 RJTD 040000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 18.4N 109.7E HAINAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 142E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 37N 180E 30N 162E 30N 155E 33N
140E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 34N 128E EAST 30 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 39N 150E EAST 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 132E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 24N 142E EAST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 113E TO 31N 120E 32N 125E 34N 128E 33N 133E
33N 137E 34N 142E 34N 146E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 161E TO 40N 165E 43N 170E 46N 175E 49N
180E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[WindRunner]

Wrapping up quite nicely now.

[Coredesat]

WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 18.2N 109.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 20.8N 108.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

Gone off NRL - presumably because it's about to become 03W...

[P.K.]

The mean number of tropical storms to this point is 4.9 (1951-2005) and is rising quickly at this time of year.

Down another 2hPa on the last advisory.

WTPQ20 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 18.6N 109.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 21.1N 109.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

Tropical Storm 03W formed 50 NM southeast of Hainan-dao, according to the JTWC's 06Z bulletin.